We are due an install, hopefully in the next 6-8 weeks.

Our install will be about £11,000, so £3500 after the grant.

For me and I can imagine countless others, ripping out the gas heating system and replacing it with a HP is a leap of faith.

Having spent countless hours researching and talking to other HP owners I am prepared to take that risk for £3500, the rough cost of a new gas boiler even though we don't need one.

I have been able to invest in battery storage because of the grant, to ensure I will definitely not spend more on my heating running costs.

Without the grant I wouldn't be changing to a HP yet, I'd wait for a few more years to let the industry evolve before committing to the biggest change to my housing since we extended our house 20yrs ago.

Posted by: @editor

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But with grants potentially disappearing for a huge portion of the population (maybe even for everyone), the fundamental question becomes: Would you have installed a heat pump without the grant and will you install one in the future if funding is removed?

Slightly difficult question because, if funding is removed, prices will fall, albeit not by £7500.  In addition some artificial constraints and the levy imposed by MCS will disappear.  However

1. For me the answer is, if I knew what I now know about how good heat pumps can be if designed and installed correctly, then very likely yes.  Perhaps a couple of years later when my gas boiler was closer to failing catastrophically, but still yes
2. But if I believe what much of the press say, heavily influenced by the oil industry and those for whom the green agenda has become a wedge that they can pervert to gain power, then no. 
3. Ditto if I weren't reasonably confident of my own ability to distinguish good from bad (which is in large measure thanks to this forum, albeit aided by having a degree in physics)

My guess is that the vast majority of the public fall into case (2/3) ie no.

The heat pump industry needs, IMHO, to put its house in order so that the overwhelming majority of installs deliver the potential that heat pump equipment has to offer.   It can then counter the b ad press and start selling the real benefits to consumers which, in the end, is the only way it will succeed.

Im not arguing for the abolition of grants (yet).  I am arguing that the heat pump industry needs to envisage a world without grants and work out how it will compete on quality of experience, not solely on price and green credentials.  Of course Government also needs to play its part by shifting the levies to restore something closer to the price ratio (electricity to gas) that existed prior to 2011, but which has been slowly jacked up since.

People bought Teslas not because they are cheap, nor because they are green, but because they are cool.  They have only stopped buying them (as much) because of the behaviour of their CEO, but the cars themselves remain desirable.  This is worth bearing in mind!

Europe (in which I include the UK) needs IMHO to watch out.  I imagine that the Chinese could knock out a very good heat pump for well sub £1000 if they chose, probably half that, just as they are knocking out reputedly very good electric cars (and selling them at inflated prices while they can).  I bet they could make cylinders for a lot less than Newark/Telford/Gledhill too.   Vaillant, Ideal and the other major boiler manufacturers (who are of course conflicted) can drag their heels for years and continue charging high prices for heat pumps, but they risk being put out of business completely, just like some European car manufacturers will be.  New (or newly applied) technologies have a habit of taking over however much resistance the old guard put up!

I moved to a house in a rural location in February 2021 without any CH or access to gas.  Heating was basically supplied via an oil-fired AGA, a log burner in the lounge, and some scattered, VERY under-sized wall-mounted electric radiators. The house was freezing!

Without funding, it would have been a case of installing an oil-fired CH and DHW system, absolutely no question.

There is no way I would have installed heat pump without BUS. Even with BUS I wish I’d kept a gas boiler. 

When I put in my heat pump, boilers were being phased out. That changed 1/2 way through our build when I was already committed to ASHP. 

I was promised the most forgettable heating system ever….. how wrong I was.  Now, im sure my experience is not the main stream, but, spend enough time speaking to home owners and listening to podcasts, there are real issues in this industry. 

Without BUS, i expect a lot of companies will go bust, or switch back to fitting gas. So who is left to service, maintain and swap the current stock when needed. 

Quite honestly I don’t know.

We’re very pleased with our system, and are gas free, so we save money each year. But the payback time (at current prices) is about 10years. Without the grant the payback would be nearly twice that.

Yes I know we should have done it for purely altruistic reasons, but in reality it took the gas boiler having hiccups to kick us over the line. Despite extensive research (and 2 physics degrees in the household) we were still very nervous about it all. And spending that much money to stay in the same condition of good heating and DHW is not the same as getting something new or improved.

I am still at the just looking (and seeking good advice) stage but very unlikely to spend £10 -20k without some help.  Existing gas boiler is doing fine but switching feels the right thing to do IF I can afford it.

Many thanks for all the information on this site at least I now feel in a position to make an intelligent decision.

Posted by: @judith

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2 physics degrees in the household)

Wow that's going some!  No excuse for not understanding it then!

We would not have installed a HP without the BUS. We had a 22+ year gas boiler beyond economic repair if/when it failed so needed to do something. A replacement would have cost up to £3k with minimal disruption but we have a long history of known running costs with gas. The quote we had (excluding BUS) came to £12.5k with quite a lot of disruption over 7 days. We have not yet had a winter with the HP and deciding to get an installation was a leap of faith - however so far our utility bills have reduced by 20% and it is performing as we were told it would. Ask me again in May 2026 about SCOP, costs and staying warm and I will then have an opinion based on facts.

I might install one without the grant, but it would either be a DIY project or an economical install where I have more control over what is being provided, to better fit with the house, minimise the disruption and keep the costs down.

I got a couple of quotes from big suppliers and what put me off was the proposed designs were all based around their standard equipment offers and the MCS requirements, so the proposals weren't flexible to reflect what I wanted and while they would get a heat pump installed for a reasonable price, I think I'd regret it in the long term because it would detract from the house. It felt that with the granted funded installs you get what you're given and don't really have much of a say, despite it being your own house.

I was discussing the same with the family and a friend after seeing potential axing of the BUS grant on the news. Financially, installing the HP with the BUS grant was a great move. Given that the boiler would have been replaced at some point in the next couple of years, I will take that cost off for RoI calculations.

After taking that off, with savings in heating costs and not having to pay boiler cover, we are likely to recover the money invested in roughly about three years. If BUS grant wasn't available, I would have probably partially electrified the heating using infrared heating for the main living areas, out of ideological reasons, but can't justify installing a HP without the grant and add another 10 years to RoI.

We would have used immersion heating during off peak hours for DHW throughout the year. Infrared heating would have been used during the milder shoulder months and stick to gas for heating the house during winter months.

Coming from the position of - I did install a HP without an upfront grant although I did qualify for the RHI which spread the grant over the next 7 years.  Why a HP?  Living in a rural location meant LPG (very expensive but functional) or continuing to fell, log, split, stack and generally humph several cubic tons of hardwood every year and clean the chimney(not sustainable with the aging bones).  The old micro bore system was adequate but nearing end of life so the change in fuel and pipework was required. If I was being purely fiscally hard headed then kerosene at 6p a KWh was and still is a no brainer, but not one I could ethically embrace. 

I am not disappointed in my choice. The house is evenly heated without any user intervention for less then the cost of LPG and logs although the spiralling price of electricity now pushes that calculation hard. RHI has largely paid for the 14Kw unit leaving me to pay for the uprated pipework and rads, the installer threw in 6 hybrid PV/thermal panels to sweeten the deal. All in, I am in a cleaner, warmer place than before.  That kerosene price continues to haunt me though. I can't see how the most polluting heating fuel is allowed to be sold at such low price. Where is an environmentally motivated government when you need one?