Heat Pump Installers: Competence, Illusion and the Hard Truth Homeowners Must Face

Mars · 2025-09-24T14:45:21Z

The UK’s heat pump industry is being suffocated by a combination of poor training, overconfidence and a regulatory framework that has failed to raise the bar. If things carry on as they are, we’re heading for a farcical situation: government will need to follow the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS) with a Heat Pump Upgrade Scheme (HPUS), spending yet more taxpayer money to go back and fix thousands of bodged or subpar installations. It would be a spoof scenario straight out of Hot Shots, where the rescue team is sent in to save the rescue team that was sent in to save the original rescue team. Except in this case, it’s not a comedy, it’s real homeowners’ money, real public funds and real carbon targets being wasted. At the heart of the issue is the uncomfortable reality that too many installers are operating under the Dunning-Kruger effect (the psychological phenomenon where people with low ability overestimate their competence) while many others are still stuck somewhere in Noel Burch’s Four Stages of Competence (thank you @grahamf for bringing this to my attention). Together, this explains why installation standards remain so low, why so many homeowners are being let down and why trust in heat pumps is being damaged at the exact moment the technology most needs champions. The Dunning-Kruger effect is easy to spot in this sector. Walk onto a job, listen to the installer and you’ll hear confidence, certainty and sales patter delivered with a straight face. But scratch the surface and you discover heat pumps that short cycle, radiators undersized for the flow temperatures being delivered, controls left at factory defaults and systems that never perform to the theoretical standards promised. These are not small mistakes. They are fundamental errors that condemn homeowners to higher running costs, colder rooms and overall disappointment. The installer, meanwhile, genuinely believes they’ve done a good job. They don’t know what they don’t know. And when their work is shielded by certification logos and paperwork, the homeowner often has no way of realising the truth until the bills arrive or the system fails to deliver comfort. Layered onto that is Burch’s Four Stages of Competence. Far too many installers are still stuck in stage one: unconscious incompetence. They simply don’t know enough to grasp that they’re getting it wrong. A smaller group has moved into stage two: conscious incompetence. They recognise their shortcomings, but often don’t have access to the training or mentoring needed to move forward. A handful are at stage three: conscious competence, where they can deliver good work but only with constant focus and effort. Very few are at stage four: unconscious competence, where design and installation excellence comes as second nature. Those that are in that top bracket stand out, but they are rare and they are drowning in a sea of mediocrity. Training is meant to provide the bridge between these stages, yet it is woefully inadequate. An installer can attend a short course (usually a couple of days), tick some boxes and walk away with a certificate that suggests they’re competent, when in reality they’ve never had to design or commission a real-world system to a high standard. Even respected training programmes stop short of consistently preparing people to install heat pumps that hit SCOPs above 3 in the field. Knowledge is fragmented, best practice isn’t enforced and the industry’s obsession with paperwork and compliance forms does nothing to improve outcomes inside actual homes. It’s little wonder that average seasonal efficiencies across the UK remain stuck around 2.7 when properly designed and installed systems could and should be performing far higher. The tragedy is that none of this is hidden. Homeowners are living with the consequences every day, and forums like Renewable Heating Hub are full of stories that paint the same picture: buffer tanks used as a crutch for poor system design, emitters never upgraded to suit lower flow temperatures and installers walking away from cold houses because “the heat pump is working as designed” despite there being no planning or design. It's a wild situation and in reality the industry is littered with unconscious incompetence masquerading as expertise, and there is no meaningful consumer protection in place to shield people from it. MCS certification, which should be the gatekeeper of standards, does not guarantee quality. It guarantees only that the paperwork has been filled in. So what does this mean for homeowners who are considering a heat pump? It means that due diligence isn’t optional, it’s absolutely essential. You cannot take an installer’s word at face value, no matter how convincing their pitch or how many badges they flash on their website. You cannot assume that MCS certification means your system will be designed correctly. And you certainly cannot assume that price is an indicator of quality. Instead, you have to become your own investigator. Dem...

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Fiona

(@fiona)

Active Member Member

Joined: 11 months ago

Posts: 4

12/10/2025 1:42 pm

I’ll create a new post with the report as alternative opinions are always welcome (plus we really don’t want to pay for a new system).

If anyone is interesting in trying to bring change (and hopefully we can) I’ve created a Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/share/g/16PQ45rHCN/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Where I am hoping to get my ‘20’ people who are willing to share their experiences of issues they’ve faced so I go back to my MP to talk about next steps.

Thanks all

👍

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GrahamF

(@grahamf)

Estimable Member Member

Joined: 5 months ago

Posts: 63

12/10/2025 1:49 pm

@Fiona obviously redact any sensitive information.

Grant Aerona 290 15.5kW, Grant Smart Controller, 2 x 200l cylinders, hot water plate heat exchanger, Single zone open loop system with TRVs for bedrooms & one sunny living room, Weather compensation with set back by room thermostat based load compensation

👍

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