The UK’s heat pump industry is being suffocated by a combination of poor training, overconfidence and a regulatory framework that has failed to raise the bar. If things carry on as they are, we’re heading for a farcical situation: government will need to follow the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS) with a Heat Pump Upgrade Scheme (HPUS), spending yet more taxpayer money to go back and fix thousands of bodged or subpar installations. It would be a spoof scenario straight out of Hot Shots, where the rescue team is sent in to save the rescue team that was sent in to save the original rescue team. Except in this case, it’s not a comedy, it’s real homeowners’ money, real public funds and real carbon targets being wasted.

At the heart of the issue is the uncomfortable reality that too many installers are operating under the Dunning-Kruger effect (the psychological phenomenon where people with low ability overestimate their competence) while many others are still stuck somewhere in Noel Burch’s Four Stages of Competence (thank you @grahamf for bringing this to my attention). Together, this explains why installation standards remain so low, why so many homeowners are being let down and why trust in heat pumps is being damaged at the exact moment the technology most needs champions.

The Dunning-Kruger effect is easy to spot in this sector. Walk onto a job, listen to the installer and you’ll hear confidence, certainty and sales patter delivered with a straight face. But scratch the surface and you discover heat pumps that short cycle, radiators undersized for the flow temperatures being delivered, controls left at factory defaults and systems that never perform to the theoretical standards promised. These are not small mistakes. They are fundamental errors that condemn homeowners to higher running costs, colder rooms and overall disappointment. The installer, meanwhile, genuinely believes they’ve done a good job.

They don’t know what they don’t know.

And when their work is shielded by certification logos and paperwork, the homeowner often has no way of realising the truth until the bills arrive or the system fails to deliver comfort.

Layered onto that is Burch’s Four Stages of Competence. Far too many installers are still stuck in stage one: unconscious incompetence. They simply don’t know enough to grasp that they’re getting it wrong. A smaller group has moved into stage two: conscious incompetence. They recognise their shortcomings, but often don’t have access to the training or mentoring needed to move forward. A handful are at stage three: conscious competence, where they can deliver good work but only with constant focus and effort. Very few are at stage four: unconscious competence, where design and installation excellence comes as second nature. Those that are in that top bracket stand out, but they are rare and they are drowning in a sea of mediocrity.

Training is meant to provide the bridge between these stages, yet it is woefully inadequate. An installer can attend a short course (usually a couple of days), tick some boxes and walk away with a certificate that suggests they’re competent, when in reality they’ve never had to design or commission a real-world system to a high standard.

Even respected training programmes stop short of consistently preparing people to install heat pumps that hit SCOPs above 3 in the field. Knowledge is fragmented, best practice isn’t enforced and the industry’s obsession with paperwork and compliance forms does nothing to improve outcomes inside actual homes. It’s little wonder that average seasonal efficiencies across the UK remain stuck around 2.7 when properly designed and installed systems could and should be performing far higher.

The tragedy is that none of this is hidden. Homeowners are living with the consequences every day, and forums like Renewable Heating Hub are full of stories that paint the same picture: buffer tanks used as a crutch for poor system design, emitters never upgraded to suit lower flow temperatures and installers walking away from cold houses because “the heat pump is working as designed” despite there being no planning or design.

It's a wild situation and in reality the industry is littered with unconscious incompetence masquerading as expertise, and there is no meaningful consumer protection in place to shield people from it. MCS certification, which should be the gatekeeper of standards, does not guarantee quality. It guarantees only that the paperwork has been filled in.

So what does this mean for homeowners who are considering a heat pump? It means that due diligence isn’t optional, it’s absolutely essential. You cannot take an installer’s word at face value, no matter how convincing their pitch or how many badges they flash on their website. You cannot assume that MCS certification means your system will be designed correctly. And you certainly cannot assume that price is an indicator of quality.

Instead, you have to become your own investigator. Demand to see examples of the installer’s work. Ask for performance data. Speak directly to their past customers. Look at the results they’ve achieved in practice, not the promises they make on paper. If they claim SCOPs above 3.5, ask them to prove it. If they tell you their systems always deliver comfort, ask to speak to a homeowner who can confirm it. And if they can’t provide that evidence, walk away. The risks are simply too high to gamble on trust alone.

This might sound harsh, but it’s the only way to cut through the fog of overconfidence and mediocrity that surrounds the heat pump industry. The incentives at play (government grants, certification schemes, manufacturer partnerships) all mean that it is too easy for weak installers to slip through the net, present themselves as competent and leave homeowners to foot the bill when reality bites. Unless and until the system is restructured to actually reward quality and penalise failure, homeowners have to protect themselves.

There are excellent installers out there. There are people who have mastered the craft, who can design and commission systems that deliver comfort, efficiency and reliability year after year. But they are not the majority. They are not even close. And the only way to find them is to look beyond the words, the certificates and the claims and examine the evidence with your own eyes.

The uncomfortable truth is that the current heat pump industry is not designed to succeed. It is designed to churn, certify and sign off, not to deliver excellence. Until that changes, homeowners will need to be sceptical, inquisitive and ruthless in choosing who they let through the door. The Dunning-Kruger effect and the Four Stages of Competence explain why so many installers believe they’re doing good work when they are not. The question for homeowners is whether you want to be the next case study in failure, or whether you’re willing to dig deeper to find the installer who actually knows what they’re doing.

And here lies the greatest challenge of all: how do you, as a homeowner, separate the wheat from the chaff? Every installer has a couple of happy customers they’ll gladly parade in front of you. But those references tell you almost nothing. If an installer has fitted ten systems and only two are excellent, four are average, and four are outright failures, you can be sure you’ll only ever be introduced to the glowing two. The dissatisfied majority are kept firmly out of sight.

That’s why due diligence has to go much deeper. Don’t stop at speaking to one or two handpicked customers. Push harder. Ask how many systems they’ve installed in total and how many you can see. Ask to visit several homes, ideally chosen by you, not by the installer. Look for consistency across their portfolio. Because consistency is the hallmark of competence. One or two good installs can be luck. Ten good installs in a row is proof of skill.

It’s not an easy task. It takes time, persistence and a willingness to be sceptical in the face of polished sales patter. But given the sums involved, the disruption to your home and the risks of ending up locked into years of poor performance, it’s the only defence homeowners have right now. Until this industry is forced to raise its game, the burden falls on you.

If you want a heat pump that performs, keeps you warm and keeps your bills down, you need to be relentless in checking, questioning and verifying. Because until the system changes, the difference between a dream outcome and a costly nightmare comes down to how well you vet the person holding the spanner.