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Electricity price predictions

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(@ronin92)
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@abernyte If it only came out of their profit, it wouldn't be the customer's problem.  But it doesn't.  A substantial chunk of it comes out of your bill.  Some policymaker wants green and wants it now irrespective of the economic specifics of each proposal has lumbered you with the cost of making a cunning investor's daft scheme profitable through a network improvement that is not needed by customers.  And there are others lining up to do likewise.  Policymakers have previous - a certain George Soros made a mint out of a previous policy blunder.


   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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Not quite right, @abernyte - but a fair attempt!

Western Power Distribution was a UK Company, but owned by PPL Global, based Pennsylvania USA
PPL wanted to sell WPD in order to buy electricity companies in the US.
The sale went through on 25th March 2022, with WPD being acquired by National Grid.

Under Ofgem regulations, there must be separate companies running the different entities within the UK energy industry.

National Grid itself had already been required to separate out the company called National-Grid ESO, who operate the physical 400kV cables and transformers of the Transmission Grid.

In Sept 2022, they changed WPD's name to National Grid Electricity Distribution, which we usually abbreviated to NGED.
The word 'Distribution' is the key point: NGED are a DNO, who operate the Distribution Grid at 132kV and below.

NGED own licences for four of the fourteen distribution grid regions:

NGED regions

I have permission to reproduce NGED material for the purposes of education and increasing public understanding of the energy-supply system in the UK.
That doesn't mean you can automatically re-publish it elsewhere. But please ask if you'd like to and I'll put you in contact.

 

As for the finances, the last audited Annual Accounts filed for the company acting as a DNO, are those of Western Power Distribution PLC to 31st March 2022.

WPD reported a Profit before tax of £747m, of which £374m was payable in Income Tax.
Dividends and Corporation Tax were paid on the remaining £373m.

Under the terms of the new RIIO-ED2 licence (2023 - 2028), they expect to spend £16 billion in infrastructure upgrades.

I have an interest in significantly reducing that figure. 🤨 
It's based on the System Transformation model for Future Energy Strategies, which is wasteful of resources.
I do not believe the country can sustain that strategy within the current economic climate.

That's why a lot of what you see posted by me on this Forum relates to alternative strategies, in which the consumers (us) take a greater responsibility for future energy supply/storage.

This post was modified 1 year ago 2 times by Transparent

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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Abernyte
(@abernyte)
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Thanks for that, very comprehensive, but... according to those last filed accounts on 31st March 2022, WPD PLC posted a net Total Comprehensive Income of £1.1 billion which was attributed to the equity holders of the parent i.e. National Grid UK

Now these companies are always going to operate in the huge numbers territory and occasionally their aims are not necessarily geared to enabling a future low carbon network where it might impinge on the shareholders profits.  I get that it is NGED that get their hands dirty at the front end but this is one of the worlds largest privately listed companies and they are penny pinching on the connection charges.


   
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Abernyte
(@abernyte)
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@ronin92

Posted by: @ronin92

If it only came out of their profit, it wouldn't be the customer's problem.  But it doesn't.

I agree, we are all being rinsed in a market devised by the companies that are running it. Are you making a case for a publicly owned transmission network? We have never done that before...ahem!! 🤣 


   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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Posted by: @abernyte

WPD PLC posted a net Total Comprehensive Income of £1.1 billion

That figure of £1.058b has Financial Costs still to be deducted, for which Note-7 is 'attached'.
For clarity, here is that Note-7

image

I disagree that the shareholders' profits can be subservient to the requirements for a future low-carbon network.

NGED is subject to the terms of their RIIO-ED2 agreement with Ofgem.
If they fail to achieve the criteria specified in that document, then their revenue is constrained.
The whole point is that any deficiencies in implementing RIIO-ED2 will hit the shareholders first.

The criteria include a significant amount of liason with local-authorities, members of community energy groups and members of the public.

I take up those opportunities, and attend meetings where I put forward strategies (mainly in the field of 'innovation') which they then count towards their RIIO-ED1/2 engagement targets.

 

One such Stakeholder Consultation on the subject of Distribution Future Energy Strategy (DFES) was run on their behalf by a professional 3rd-party survey company.

They used an interactive web-based tool-set to gain our responses within a series of subject-headings which we knew in advance.
The session lasted 90-mins, after which we were given contact details for anything else we wanted to say.
Moreover, the consultees had a side-bar on the web-tool into which we could enter any comment we wished, visible to all the others.
If we thought a question was biassed or missed the point, then we said so!

I used that side-bar to draw attention to others any significant data/facts which I thought hadn't been fairly/fully presented.

There were only a couple of dozen participants in the SW Region Consultation, which is indicative of how few people actually get engaged with forming future energy strategy.
Only two of us were there from the wider community... the others being professionally engaged in the energy sector in some way.

As such I had considerable 'clout'!

The approach I take is what WPD/NGED would call 'disruptive technology strategy'!
That necessarily means that I challenge the (technical) proposals being presented by the company.

 

@abernyte - if you really want to make a difference, then please ensure that your DNO knows of your interest in being invited to join in their own stakeholder engagement meetings.
Without community involvement, they cannot fulfill their RIIO obligations, so are highly unlikely to refuse you!

This post was modified 1 year ago by Transparent

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Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
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What’s the general consensus - are we likely to see an electricity tariff drop this summer?

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(@drew-pa)
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@editor,

I would like to hope so.  I don’t see the daily charge coming back down though.  

Drew


   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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It definitely won't @drew-pa

The standing charge is based on seven different parameters, but is substantially set by what Ofgem allows for the regional DNO to maintain and upgrade their distribution network.

DNOs started new RIIO-ED2 contracts with Ofgem on 1st April, which is no joke.

They are all required to make considerable infrastructure enhancements to increase the spread of renewable energy generation.
Moreover, Ofgem has removed from the DNO that portion of the charge for a new grid-connection which was called "a contribution for network upgrade".
That makes it cheaper for commercial companies to apply for new wind/solar generation connections...
... because the electricity consumers in the area now have to pay 100% of the required network enhancements. 😣 

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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(@drew-pa)
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Thanks for the link @transparent.  

That took some reading.  I'll need to go through that again once I get my mobilisation finished.  It's all good reading.  Do you have any knowledge of when they are supposed to untie the price of electricity from gas?

 


   
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Mars
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(@editor)
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Posted by: @drew-pa

Do you have any knowledge of when they are supposed to untie the price of electricity from gas?

I think that's planned for end of 2024. 

Buy Bodge Buster – Homeowner Air Source Heat Pump Installation Guide: https://amzn.to/3NVndlU

Follow our sustainability journey at My Home Farm: https://myhomefarm.co.uk


   
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(@drew-pa)
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@editor @transparent

In my head this will make a difference, but I am not sure how much.  The price of wind doesn't change after all.  Are there estimates as to what the price may settle at once this happens?  Im guessing it all depends on the Contracts For Difference agreed with the developers.

 


   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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on 17th (Monday), Dept Energy opened a consultation to gain insight into the inclusion of non financial factors in the Contracts for Difference Scheme.

I have yet to open the page and read the criteria for participation.

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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