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Electricity price predictions

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Toodles
(@toodles)
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Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 2783
 

@papahuhu 🤩 Toodles.


Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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(@old_scientist)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 427
 

Posted by: @toodles

@old_scientist It was because I am not on an EV tariff that I wrote to Greg a few months ago; his ‘senior colleague’ who replied appeared to be taking note of my comments about relatively heavy consumers (I mean the amount of energy they consume, not a comment on their bodily structure!) with heat pumps and batteries possibly rating similar usage to some EV owners and might they consider a tariff for such consumers please. I noticed a distinct sympathy to my request in the reply - who knows? Rewards, Toodles.

That is a really valid point.

At the moment we have disparate tariffs targeted (and well suited) to EV/battery users (cheap overnight), Heat Pump/battery users (Cosy), Solar/battery users (Flux/IOF) but little that effectively brings all the technologies together. If you have an EV and an ASHP, you almost have to decide which is your predominant usage and compromise on the other.

I really like the idea of centralised control of battery resources to help balance the grid. It serves both the main purposes people buy batteries (financial and ECO) so it's a double win for the owner, it's a win for decarbonisation of the grid and it's a win for the utility company. The fact they can discharge at peak times to support grid load and then recharge at green/surplus times to help absorb some of the oversupply, whilst also providing the most cost effective tariff by far make tariffs like IOF the holy grail to me. Having an addon like the Charge Pack available in winter to tariffs like Cosy is certainly a plus for us ASHP owners and would allow my battery to be fully discharged in the 3h peak window (better for the grid) rather than more slowly over the current 6h window it currently has to service under Cosy.

 

 


Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
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(@chandykris)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 188
 

Maybe something like 8 hours of off-peak slots, 5 hours from 12:30 am and another 3 hours from 1 pm to 4 pm. This could be priced at 12p, average of Go and Cosy off-peak rates. Keep the day and peak (4pm to 7pm) rates similar to Cosy. Couple this with standard export rates of 12p to take away any price arbitratage, and a peak export slot at 15p from 4 pm to 7 pm.

The 5 hours early morning slot would help with EV charging, pump up the heat and getting the batteries full. Then the afternoon slot would help to top up the batteries before the 4 pm to 7 pm peak time, run the hot water on the heat pump and heavy appliances like the dishwasher.

This could be called the All-in-one tariff!

Posted by: @old_scientist

but little that effectively brings all the technologies together

 


16 * 435 watts PV
13 kWh Growatt battery
1 EV - Mercedes EQB
6 kW Aira Heat Pump
Bosch Induction Hob
Pod Point Solo 3 charger


   
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(@old_scientist)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 427
 

Posted by: @chandykris

Maybe something like 8 hours of off-peak slots, 5 hours from 12:30 am and another 3 hours from 1 pm to 4 pm. This could be priced at 12p, average of Go and Cosy off-peak rates. Keep the day and peak (4pm to 7pm) rates similar to Cosy. Couple this with standard export rates of 12p to take away any price arbitratage, and a peak export slot at 15p from 4 pm to 7 pm.

The 5 hours early morning slot would help with EV charging, pump up the heat and getting the batteries full. Then the afternoon slot would help to top up the batteries before the 4 pm to 7 pm peak time, run the hot water on the heat pump and heavy appliances like the dishwasher.

This could be called the All-in-one tariff!

I like it, and allow the newly announced Charge Pack as an addon, and you have a really smart All-in-One tariff. Greg, are you listening?

 


Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
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(@papahuhu)
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Joined: 11 months ago
Posts: 297
 

As well as being, at least seemingly, a very decent and reasonable human being, as CEO he is obliged to provide a return to investors. From what I understand, that aspect has been rather lacking. Give them a chance to make a few quid out of us! In relation to most other businesses, OE has been a breath of fresh air, it would be a tragic if it went under. 



   
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Toodles
(@toodles)
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Joined: 4 years ago
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@papahuhu Quite So! I have heard that the only profitable element of all the OE divisions is the one that sells Kraken to other businesses. Toodles.


Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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(@chandykris)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 188
 

@papahuhu Agree, his first and foremost duty is to ensure a good return to his stakeholders. But, I wish Octopus were a listed entity so that I can invest a portion of my portfolio in them. It's an amazing business and should give good returns in the long term..


16 * 435 watts PV
13 kWh Growatt battery
1 EV - Mercedes EQB
6 kW Aira Heat Pump
Bosch Induction Hob
Pod Point Solo 3 charger


   
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(@chandykris)
Reputable Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 188
 

By the way, just saw on Mick Wall's Energy Stats UK YouTube channel about a new export tariff from Octopus called Prime. While it's not on their websites yet but it's listed on their APIs. Interesting to see standard export rates of around 9p and peak export rates of around 16p.


16 * 435 watts PV
13 kWh Growatt battery
1 EV - Mercedes EQB
6 kW Aira Heat Pump
Bosch Induction Hob
Pod Point Solo 3 charger


   
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(@papahuhu)
Reputable Member Member
Joined: 11 months ago
Posts: 297
 

@old_scientist 

Apparently it’s called Optimus, export only, soon to be announced, 16p peak and 9p off peak. Not as good as Flux, for me at least. But useful for EV users or smaller PV arrays. 

If you have space and planning permission to install your own, decent sized, wind turbine (or hydro if you have flowing water and head), that’s where the smart money would go at the moment. Winter output is king with a chunky heat pump.

 



   
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(@old_scientist)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 427
 

Posted by: @papahuhu

@old_scientist 

Apparently it’s called Optimus, export only, soon to be announced, 16p peak and 9p off peak.

That makes perfect sense to pay more for export when it's needed and less when it's not.

 


Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
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(@etchedpixels)
Trusted Member Member
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 62
 

It's also setting the stall out for the fact that the 12p flat rate has to go down a load and that the 16/9 will no doubt end up as 22/1 or somesuch in the future.

 

I'm curious how their drive pack actually works out, do they have enough gullible lower users to overcharge with drive pack stuff to offset the fact every EV cabby I know is on it 8)

 



   
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JamesPa
(@jamespa)
Illustrious Member Moderator
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 5083
 

Posted by: @toodles

@papahuhu Quite So! I have heard that the only profitable element of all the OE divisions is the one that sells Kraken to other businesses. Toodles.

Octopus is multinational.  It will likely put its profits where expedient like other multinationals.  Companies have whole departments for cross border tax optimisation.

Someone who used to work in BP finance told me just a few weeks ago that they lose money on forecourt sales.  I don't know if it's true, but if it is it will be by design.

 


This post was modified 23 hours ago 3 times by JamesPa

4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.


   
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