Search with Wattson

Notifications

Clear all

Joining the Renewable Heating Hub forums is completely free and only takes a minute. By registering you’ll be able to ask questions, join discussions, follow topics you’re interested in, bookmark useful threads and receive notifications when someone replies. Non-registered members also do not have access to our AI features. When choosing your username, please note that it cannot be changed later, so we recommend avoiding brand or product names. Before registering, please take a moment to read the Forum Rules & Terms of Use so we can keep the community helpful, respectful and informative for everyone. Thanks for joining!

Why don't people choose heat pumps?

cathodeRay · 2026-11-03T12:27:35Z

I was going to add this to the Boiler Upgrade Scheme funding reduced by circa £750 million in 2026 budget thread, which is showing some signs of morphing into a why don't people choose heat pumps thread, but decided the topic is better off in a thread of its own. The scale of the problem One of the first things I learnt about assessing medical research is always to check the sources for statements made. Academic literature makes heavy use of references to back up statements made in a paper, and yet it is surprising how often the reference fails to back up the statement made. This problem applies even more to 'market research' and 'industry insight' papers where statements of apparent fact float around like Wordsworth's lonely clouds, bereft of any grounding in solid fact. One such lonely cloud is the current annual number of fossil fuel boilers installed in the UK. A number around 1.7 million crops up all over the place, but none of the references or sources that I have found substantiate this number. Google's 'AI' efforts on this question are spectacularly pathetic, even by its own poor standards: The first 'source' is an undated (maybe around 2023/24) British Gas marketing plug that incidentally drops in a statement that 'up to 1.7 million domestic-scale natural gas boilers are installed in the UK every year' without anything to back up that 'up to' number. Unsubstantiated tosh, binned. The second 'source' is a Johnson government October 2021 policy paper on its Heat and Building Strategy. Note the date, because of pandemic effects. Two thirds of the way down a long page the policy paper asserts that 'Currently 1.7 million fossil fuel boilers are installed per year (natural gas, oil and coal). [footnote 396]' Unfortunately, footnote 396 no longer exists, if indeed it ever existed. The wayback machine (see note at bottom of page for link) does have archived pages for the relevant period, mid 2021, but they do not appear to contain any actual market research, let alone substantiated numbers. Instead there is a graphic: which sort of sums it up. Unsubstantiated tosh, binned. Nonetheless, it is possible, but not proven, that this was the 'source' for the British Gas number. The third 'source' is 'Written evidence [to a select committee?]submitted by Energy & Utilities Alliance (EUA) (WFP0062)' The EUA, we are told, 'provides a leading industry voice helping shape the future policy direction within the sector. Using its wealth of expertise and over 100 years of experience, it acts to further the best interests of its members and the wider community in working towards a sustainable, energy secure and efficient future'. Really? It goes on to assert that 'In 2024, just under 1.5 million natural gas boilers were installed into homes with around 90,000 heat pumps installed in comparison'. Note the heat pump number, we shall come back to that. However, for now, no source is given for either number. Unsubstantiated tosh, binned. All that we have established so far is that google AI doesn't have a leg to stand on when it comes to evidence. It just churns out tosh. However, buried within [footnote 396] there is a glimmer of hope shining though the clouds: a named organisation, and a general indication that it does market analysis: 'BSRIA (2020), Domestic Boiler Market Analysis – United Kingdom'. And indeed they do, but at £1,410 for the latest report for a single country, I won't be getting that report anytime soon: BSRIA (Building Services Research and Intelligence Association) does have a News Page and Archive, but none of the available press releases contains anything about the number of boilers installed in the UK in recent years. In the interests of thoroughness, I did a more forensic analysis on the wayback machine, and still drew a blank: the earliest BSRIA heating market reports available are from 2025, long after the Johnson government's paper was published: The bottom line appears to be there is nothing in the public domain to substantiate the often quoted 1.7 million annual (domestic?) boilers installed in the UK number. The best that we can hope for is that the goons who wrote Johnson government's policy paper (a) splashed out and got the then current, now at least several years out of date, BSRIA report (b) bothered to read and just as importantly critically appraise the report and (c) had reasonable grounds for believing the 1.7 million number they quoted (d) it wasn't a number distorted by pandemic effects and (e) it still applies today. Quite a lot to wish for...but at the same time, maybe it is the best we have? Who knows? In passing: possible evidence that google AI just makes things up: I did a search for an organisation called the Heating and Hotwater Industry Council (HHIC) which may or may not publish domestic boiler installation stats. Google AI thinks it does: See the first entry in the box on the right: a press relea...

Page 4 / 4 Prev

Air Source Heat Pumps (ASHPs)

Last Post by Toodles 48 minutes ago

38 Posts

11 Users

13 Reactions

248 Views

RSS

Batpred

(@batpred)

Noble Member Member

Joined: 2 years ago

Posts: 1224

05/11/2026 6:33 pm

@rob-of-york

I understand what you are saying about tariff and some people already having benefitted from some TOU, this limits further benefit of a heatpump, the picture is more nuanced. With an EV tariff before getting a heatpump, we were one of those cases. Stll, regulars in this forum are, as I am sure we all know, fairly atypical users.

Nesta have a good sense of what the average home has, as they survey them very often. So until I see data showing me what other renewable tech a home has before they get a heatpump, I will go with Nesta.

I read recently there are 10 million households that still have no smart meters..

8kW Solis S6-EH1P8K-L-PLUS hybrid inverter; G99: 8kW export; 16kWh Seplos Fogstar battery; Ohme Home Pro EV charger; Vaillant Arotherm Pro 7kW; 100Amp head, HA lab on mini PC

ReplyQuote

Toodles

(@toodles)

Famed Member Contributor

Joined: 4 years ago

Posts: 3043

05/11/2026 7:03 pm

@batpred We have a SMETS1 SM still, it was ‘upgraded’ ‘over the air’ some years back and I am wondering when it will pass its’ best before date’ and be due for replacement. I can’t have the Octopus Mini device attached to this current SM so would very much like to see it replaced soon. OE told me that it might be some time before eligibility allows them to replace it. Regrets, Toodles.

Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.

ReplyQuote

Page 4 / 4 Prev

Forum Jump:

Previous Topic

Currently viewing this topic 1 user ( SusannaSaunders ) and 11 guests.

Recently viewed by users: Toodles 48 minutes ago, Temperature_Gradient 1 hour ago, JamesPa 43 minutes ago, cathodeRay 46 minutes ago.

27 Forums
2,811 Topics
66.5 K Posts
4,088 Online
7,219 Members

Forum Icons: Forum contains no unread posts Forum contains unread posts

Topic Icons: Not Replied Replied Active Hot Sticky Unapproved Solved Private Closed

RE: Why don't people choose heat pumps?

@batpred We have a SMETS1 SM still, it was ‘upgraded’ ‘...

By Toodles , 48 minutes ago
RE: The Changing Jet Stream Could Challenge UK Air Source Heat Pumps

@susannasaunders An interesting conversation to have ...

By Rob of York , 5 hours ago
RE: How much of your renewable and home setup would still work if the internet went down?

Yes, in my case, the ISP hub is permanently there, they...

By Batpred , 9 hours ago
RE: Electricity price predictions

@rob-of-york sounds like a term that Heidegger would...

By Papahuhu , 10 hours ago
RE: Adding data centre electricity costs to domestic energy bills?

never ceases to amaze me.. Keeping steel works going ...

By Batpred , 19 hours ago
RE: Boiler Upgrade Scheme funding reduced by circa £750 million in 2026 budget

Absolutely agree. The massive Hager CU my vaillant requ...

By Batpred , 19 hours ago
RE: Octopussy cosy 6 experience

People who have a Cosy appear generally to be happy wit...

By JamesPa , 23 hours ago
How Can I Prove Coal Was My Main Heating Source Without Receipts?

thank you for having me,i am just asking for advice i h...

By Chilli304 , 1 day ago
RE: Hydrogen Ready

I thought the cr*p came first and the biofuel came afte...

By Majordennisbloodnok , 1 day ago
RE: Aerotherm and weather compensation

@jamespa I replied yesterday with detailed readings whi...

By DavidB , 2 days ago
RE: Marvel Heating liquidation

@editor This is an important point. each winter, you...

By davidnolan22 , 3 days ago
RE: Solar Power Output – Let’s Compare Generation Figures

Very nice. we’ve been super soggy here, but rather m...

By Papahuhu , 4 days ago
RE: DIY powerflushing tutorial

Interesting! I toyed with the idea too. But I installed...

By bobflux , 4 days ago
RE: 15kw pump for 225m2 1990's house - over kill?

@seaviews Agree with the others on sequence: loft first...

By mk1234 , 4 days ago
RE: Vaillant ecoTEC Plus - Flow Temp and Set Up

Heating been on for 4 weeks now, continuous. It's 6C o...

By trebor12345 , 6 days ago

Renewable Heating Hub Heat Pump Forums

Why don't people choose heat pumps?

SPONSORS

Join Us!

Installer Finder

Degrees of Separation

Latest Posts

SPONSORS

Members Online