Search with Wattson

Notifications

Clear all

Joining the Renewable Heating Hub forums is completely free and only takes a minute. By registering you’ll be able to ask questions, join discussions, follow topics you’re interested in, bookmark useful threads and receive notifications when someone replies. Non-registered members also do not have access to our AI features. When choosing your username, please note that it cannot be changed later, so we recommend avoiding brand or product names. Before registering, please take a moment to read the Forum Rules & Terms of Use so we can keep the community helpful, respectful and informative for everyone. Thanks for joining!

Why don't people choose heat pumps?

cathodeRay · 2026-11-03T12:27:35Z

I was going to add this to the Boiler Upgrade Scheme funding reduced by circa £750 million in 2026 budget thread, which is showing some signs of morphing into a why don't people choose heat pumps thread, but decided the topic is better off in a thread of its own. The scale of the problem One of the first things I learnt about assessing medical research is always to check the sources for statements made. Academic literature makes heavy use of references to back up statements made in a paper, and yet it is surprising how often the reference fails to back up the statement made. This problem applies even more to 'market research' and 'industry insight' papers where statements of apparent fact float around like Wordsworth's lonely clouds, bereft of any grounding in solid fact. One such lonely cloud is the current annual number of fossil fuel boilers installed in the UK. A number around 1.7 million crops up all over the place, but none of the references or sources that I have found substantiate this number. Google's 'AI' efforts on this question are spectacularly pathetic, even by its own poor standards: The first 'source' is an undated (maybe around 2023/24) British Gas marketing plug that incidentally drops in a statement that 'up to 1.7 million domestic-scale natural gas boilers are installed in the UK every year' without anything to back up that 'up to' number. Unsubstantiated tosh, binned. The second 'source' is a Johnson government October 2021 policy paper on its Heat and Building Strategy. Note the date, because of pandemic effects. Two thirds of the way down a long page the policy paper asserts that 'Currently 1.7 million fossil fuel boilers are installed per year (natural gas, oil and coal). [footnote 396]' Unfortunately, footnote 396 no longer exists, if indeed it ever existed. The wayback machine (see note at bottom of page for link) does have archived pages for the relevant period, mid 2021, but they do not appear to contain any actual market research, let alone substantiated numbers. Instead there is a graphic: which sort of sums it up. Unsubstantiated tosh, binned. Nonetheless, it is possible, but not proven, that this was the 'source' for the British Gas number. The third 'source' is 'Written evidence [to a select committee?]submitted by Energy & Utilities Alliance (EUA) (WFP0062)' The EUA, we are told, 'provides a leading industry voice helping shape the future policy direction within the sector. Using its wealth of expertise and over 100 years of experience, it acts to further the best interests of its members and the wider community in working towards a sustainable, energy secure and efficient future'. Really? It goes on to assert that 'In 2024, just under 1.5 million natural gas boilers were installed into homes with around 90,000 heat pumps installed in comparison'. Note the heat pump number, we shall come back to that. However, for now, no source is given for either number. Unsubstantiated tosh, binned. All that we have established so far is that google AI doesn't have a leg to stand on when it comes to evidence. It just churns out tosh. However, buried within [footnote 396] there is a glimmer of hope shining though the clouds: a named organisation, and a general indication that it does market analysis: 'BSRIA (2020), Domestic Boiler Market Analysis – United Kingdom'. And indeed they do, but at £1,410 for the latest report for a single country, I won't be getting that report anytime soon: BSRIA (Building Services Research and Intelligence Association) does have a News Page and Archive, but none of the available press releases contains anything about the number of boilers installed in the UK in recent years. In the interests of thoroughness, I did a more forensic analysis on the wayback machine, and still drew a blank: the earliest BSRIA heating market reports available are from 2025, long after the Johnson government's paper was published: The bottom line appears to be there is nothing in the public domain to substantiate the often quoted 1.7 million annual (domestic?) boilers installed in the UK number. The best that we can hope for is that the goons who wrote Johnson government's policy paper (a) splashed out and got the then current, now at least several years out of date, BSRIA report (b) bothered to read and just as importantly critically appraise the report and (c) had reasonable grounds for believing the 1.7 million number they quoted (d) it wasn't a number distorted by pandemic effects and (e) it still applies today. Quite a lot to wish for...but at the same time, maybe it is the best we have? Who knows? In passing: possible evidence that google AI just makes things up: I did a search for an organisation called the Heating and Hotwater Industry Council (HHIC) which may or may not publish domestic boiler installation stats. Google AI thinks it does: See the first entry in the box on the right: a press relea...

Page 3 / 3 Prev

Air Source Heat Pumps (ASHPs)

Last Post by Batpred 7 minutes ago

27 Posts

9 Users

5 Reactions

161 Views

RSS

EtchedPixels

(@etchedpixels)

Reputable Member Member

Joined: 5 months ago

Posts: 214

04/11/2026 10:45 pm

My background is systems practice so biases are something we spend a lot of time on. Part of the problem is that in many cases the science answer isn't answering the underlying worry. You can throw all the statistics you like at someone about the percentage of heatpump installs that go horribly wrong and you won't have any effect because the need to be safe and warm is far deeper in the heirarchy of needs. Deep down nobody cares whether there's a 96% change their heatpump will be ok they care that there's a 4% chance it'll suck.

Humans are very risk averse creatures because for most of our existence risk tended to equate with dead. Thus you can have all the conversations you like about hybrids being stupid and EV ranges but they don't attend to the "but what if can't get work, lose my job, starve" chain of deep down reasoning. What addresses that is seeing that it hasn't happened to all their friends.

Telling people they are being irrational doesn't help either. Many of them have enough introspection to know this but the same is true of people scared of spiders and it doesn't work there for the same reason.

ReplyQuote

Temperature_Gradient

(@temperature_gradient)

Estimable Member Member

Joined: 1 year ago

Posts: 84

04/11/2026 11:18 pm

I'm not convinced of the psychological barriers being that significant for the majority, sure there will always be a minority reluctant to embrace new technology, but generally once the new technology is good enough there's a decently large proportion of people who will happily adopt it. I'm struggling to think of any good technologies which have been left on the shelf due to widespread psychological reluctance to use something new. From computers, the internet, digital cameras, digital video, digital audio, digital payments, now EVs, if the tech is good, people adopt it.

I think the problem is that retrofit A2W heat-pump installations in Britain, with our national practices and pricing, haven't reached the point of being good enough yet compared to an efficient gas boiler, to provide that compelling case to change.

It does not help that Britain has taken the perfectionist approach of shutting out the hybrid solutions used in other European countries, which fill in for some of the deficiencies of current heat-pump technology, to make them more attractive as a retrofit solution - the ability to retain the combi for hot water, the ability to work with the existing plumbing and the ability to use gas to provide a ceiling on operating cost, so heating is still affordable during period of peak electricity pricing and during periods of very cold weather / low-CoP.

This post was modified 51 minutes ago by Temperature_Gradient

ReplyQuote

Batpred

(@batpred)

Noble Member Member

Joined: 2 years ago

Posts: 1218

05/11/2026 12:03 am

With a heatpump tariff, it should be cheaper to operate a pump than a boiler..,

8kW Solis S6-EH1P8K-L-PLUS hybrid inverter; G99: 8kW export; 16kWh Seplos Fogstar battery; Ohme Home Pro EV charger; Vaillant Arotherm Pro 7kW; 100Amp head, HA lab on mini PC

ReplyQuote

Page 3 / 3 Prev

Forum Jump:

Previous Topic

Currently viewing this topic 1 guest.

Recently viewed by users: Batpred 7 minutes ago, Rob of York 1 hour ago, Temperature_Gradient 51 minutes ago.

27 Forums
2,811 Topics
66.5 K Posts
2,453 Online
7,217 Members

Forum Icons: Forum contains no unread posts Forum contains unread posts

Topic Icons: Not Replied Replied Active Hot Sticky Unapproved Solved Private Closed

RE: Why don't people choose heat pumps?

With a heatpump tariff, it should be cheaper to operate...

By Batpred , 7 minutes ago
RE: How much of your renewable and home setup would still work if the internet went down?

absolutely agree. even if many providers see that extra...

By Batpred , 12 minutes ago
RE: The Changing Jet Stream Could Challenge UK Air Source Heat Pumps

According to organisations that commissioned studies on...

By Batpred , 22 minutes ago
RE: Octopussy cosy 6 experience

People who have a Cosy appear generally to be happy wit...

By JamesPa , 4 hours ago
RE: Hydrogen Ready

I thought the cr*p came first and the biofuel came afte...

By Majordennisbloodnok , 7 hours ago
RE: Adding data centre electricity costs to domestic energy bills?

"That means I can speak out when I see a conflict betwe...

By EtchedPixels , 11 hours ago
RE: Electricity price predictions

I wasnt sure where to post An interesting meeting ...

By Jeff , 1 day ago
RE: Boiler Upgrade Scheme funding reduced by circa £750 million in 2026 budget

Agree with everything else. Personally I think the as...

By JamesPa , 1 day ago
RE: Aerotherm and weather compensation

@jamespa I replied yesterday with detailed readings whi...

By DavidB , 2 days ago
RE: Marvel Heating liquidation

@editor This is an important point. each winter, you...

By davidnolan22 , 2 days ago
RE: Solar Power Output – Let’s Compare Generation Figures

Very nice. we’ve been super soggy here, but rather m...

By Papahuhu , 3 days ago
RE: DIY powerflushing tutorial

Interesting! I toyed with the idea too. But I installed...

By bobflux , 3 days ago
RE: 15kw pump for 225m2 1990's house - over kill?

@seaviews Agree with the others on sequence: loft first...

By mk1234 , 3 days ago
RE: Vaillant ecoTEC Plus - Flow Temp and Set Up

Heating been on for 4 weeks now, continuous. It's 6C o...

By trebor12345 , 5 days ago

Renewable Heating Hub Heat Pump Forums

Why don't people choose heat pumps?

SPONSORS

Join Us!

Installer Finder

Degrees of Separation

Latest Posts

SPONSORS

Members Online