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Why don't people choose heat pumps?

cathodeRay · 2026-11-03T12:27:35Z

I was going to add this to the Boiler Upgrade Scheme funding reduced by circa £750 million in 2026 budget thread, which is showing some signs of morphing into a why don't people choose heat pumps thread, but decided the topic is better off in a thread of its own. The scale of the problem One of the first things I learnt about assessing medical research is always to check the sources for statements made. Academic literature makes heavy use of references to back up statements made in a paper, and yet it is surprising how often the reference fails to back up the statement made. This problem applies even more to 'market research' and 'industry insight' papers where statements of apparent fact float around like Wordsworth's lonely clouds, bereft of any grounding in solid fact. One such lonely cloud is the current annual number of fossil fuel boilers installed in the UK. A number around 1.7 million crops up all over the place, but none of the references or sources that I have found substantiate this number. Google's 'AI' efforts on this question are spectacularly pathetic, even by its own poor standards: The first 'source' is an undated (maybe around 2023/24) British Gas marketing plug that incidentally drops in a statement that 'up to 1.7 million domestic-scale natural gas boilers are installed in the UK every year' without anything to back up that 'up to' number. Unsubstantiated tosh, binned. The second 'source' is a Johnson government October 2021 policy paper on its Heat and Building Strategy. Note the date, because of pandemic effects. Two thirds of the way down a long page the policy paper asserts that 'Currently 1.7 million fossil fuel boilers are installed per year (natural gas, oil and coal). [footnote 396]' Unfortunately, footnote 396 no longer exists, if indeed it ever existed. The wayback machine (see note at bottom of page for link) does have archived pages for the relevant period, mid 2021, but they do not appear to contain any actual market research, let alone substantiated numbers. Instead there is a graphic: which sort of sums it up. Unsubstantiated tosh, binned. Nonetheless, it is possible, but not proven, that this was the 'source' for the British Gas number. The third 'source' is 'Written evidence [to a select committee?]submitted by Energy & Utilities Alliance (EUA) (WFP0062)' The EUA, we are told, 'provides a leading industry voice helping shape the future policy direction within the sector. Using its wealth of expertise and over 100 years of experience, it acts to further the best interests of its members and the wider community in working towards a sustainable, energy secure and efficient future'. Really? It goes on to assert that 'In 2024, just under 1.5 million natural gas boilers were installed into homes with around 90,000 heat pumps installed in comparison'. Note the heat pump number, we shall come back to that. However, for now, no source is given for either number. Unsubstantiated tosh, binned. All that we have established so far is that google AI doesn't have a leg to stand on when it comes to evidence. It just churns out tosh. However, buried within [footnote 396] there is a glimmer of hope shining though the clouds: a named organisation, and a general indication that it does market analysis: 'BSRIA (2020), Domestic Boiler Market Analysis – United Kingdom'. And indeed they do, but at £1,410 for the latest report for a single country, I won't be getting that report anytime soon: BSRIA (Building Services Research and Intelligence Association) does have a News Page and Archive, but none of the available press releases contains anything about the number of boilers installed in the UK in recent years. In the interests of thoroughness, I did a more forensic analysis on the wayback machine, and still drew a blank: the earliest BSRIA heating market reports available are from 2025, long after the Johnson government's paper was published: The bottom line appears to be there is nothing in the public domain to substantiate the often quoted 1.7 million annual (domestic?) boilers installed in the UK number. The best that we can hope for is that the goons who wrote Johnson government's policy paper (a) splashed out and got the then current, now at least several years out of date, BSRIA report (b) bothered to read and just as importantly critically appraise the report and (c) had reasonable grounds for believing the 1.7 million number they quoted (d) it wasn't a number distorted by pandemic effects and (e) it still applies today. Quite a lot to wish for...but at the same time, maybe it is the best we have? Who knows? In passing: possible evidence that google AI just makes things up: I did a search for an organisation called the Heating and Hotwater Industry Council (HHIC) which may or may not publish domestic boiler installation stats. Google AI thinks it does: See the first entry in the box on the right: a press relea...

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Air Source Heat Pumps (ASHPs)

Last Post by Toodles 27 minutes ago

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JamesPa

(@jamespa)

Illustrious Member Moderator

Joined: 4 years ago

Posts: 5620

10/11/2026 4:27 pm

Posted by: @toodles

↑

@jamespa Our Panasonic A2A system is due to be installed in late January or February and I know that has humidity control. Toodles.

Thanks, I would expect most of the big names to have this, just not so sure about the bargain basement devices.

4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.

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Rob of York

(@rob-of-york)

Reputable Member Member

Joined: 3 months ago

Posts: 166

10/11/2026 4:46 pm

@susannasaunders

The high end Daikin Ururu Sarara A2A units do heating, cooling, humidification, and de-humidification. The humidification is done by extracting moisture from the outside air and using that, so no tank to fill etc. It also does "humid heating" so that the relative humidity does not fall as the room temperature is increased.

The simpler Perfera A2A unit that I have does heating, cooling, and de-humidification. The latter, called "dry mode" doesn't change the room temperature but extracts moisture.

During cooling on hot humid days the change in temperature can mean that the A2A dumps quite a lot of water outside. On the most hot and humid days this summer, it was removing something like 0.5 to 1 litre of water per hour. This happens continuously because of the gradual air exchange between the outside and the inside of the house, with warm moist air creeping back in. The A2A itself does not exchange any air between outside and inside, since there are only refrigerant and power lines running through the wall, along with a small condensate pipe.

On cooling air flows over the cold evaporator coil and this causes water to condense out - so it is continually extracting some water from the air. I have not noticed this cause any issues with dry air (we have LCD battery powered temperature and humidity sensors in every room). In this respect, it is probably best to run the A2A in auto mode, so that it turns the fan up and then down as needed, doing the minimum necessary to reach the set point.

Because there is no air exchange as such with single-split or multi-split A2A, on heating the relative humidity naturally decreases in just the same way that it would if the room was heated via radiators.

Daikin A2A units also have something they call "flash streamer", which uses high speed electrons from plasma discharge to breakdown fungal mold, pollen and other allergens as well as bacteria and viruses in the air that passes through the unit.

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Toodles

(@toodles)

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10/11/2026 5:22 pm

@rob-of-york The Panasonic units also have a microscopic filtration system built in by the way. Be aware that the Daikin Ururu units have to be connected to a dedicated external unit each. I was considering them as a possible candidate until I found out this was the case! Regards, Toodles.

Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.

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