@papahuhu I prefer to look at it simplistically.

We drive around 8k miles per year, so at 4 miles/kWh that's around 2000kWh of electricity added to our consumption. Even charging at SVR, it's cheaper per mile than the diesel alternative at 13p/mile (currently). 

Having the car also opens up IOG as an option for us. I shall simply plug in the numbers to Tim and Kat's tariff optimiser and see what falls out the other end. No tariff is going to be optimal - IOG is cheap overnight but our house battery is not big enough to cover our use in winter. Cosy is great for the ASHP, and 13p per kWh to charge the car is still significantly cheaper than diesel in winter. Flux should still be highly profitable in summer as we export a significant amount at the low 10p day rate which could go into the car whilst still emptying the house battery at peak rate.

We are both retired and the car often sits on the drive for days, so we can be flexible around when we charge, especially in summer to capture excess solar before the Flux export peak.

I get what you mean about the car charger. We are on an 80A connection, so some common sense is required if charging at 7kWh. I may even start on a granny charger and see how we get on. I believe the car we are looking at is 'intelligent' in it's own right, so doesn't require a compatible intelligent charger to qualify for IOG. If the DNO refused permission, I'd probably just install a 32A CEE 'commando' socket and use a 7kW charger like this:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0H9Y716C2?ref=emc_p_m_6_i&th=1

@old_scientist

I just checked the trajectory of the uk natural gas market, it’s up about 100% since the last time the price cap was reviewed and set. I know it’s only one component of the electricity price cap but I understand it’s about half, therefore I decided to switch back to Cosy fixed tarif in case the price cap for Jan 2027 jumps in line with raw material inputs. I went with fixed tarif as seemingly there are no exit restrictions or costs, so if the price cap doesn’t jump more than 10% for Jan, I can slide back to the variable rate.

Posted by: @papahuhu

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@old_scientist

I just checked the trajectory of the uk natural gas market, it’s up about 100% since the last time the price cap was reviewed and set. I know it’s only one component of the electricity price cap but I understand it’s about half, therefore I decided to switch back to Cosy fixed tarif in case the price cap for Jan 2027 jumps in line with raw material inputs. I went with fixed tarif as seemingly there are no exit restrictions or costs, so if the price cap doesn’t jump more than 10% for Jan, I can slide back to the variable rate.

There used to be an exit fee last year for the 12 month fix.

Energy companies are predicting ~13% increase whereas Cornwall Insight are predicting ~9% rise in January 2027. The top end of that would put the current Cosy cheap rate price at around 14.75p versus the current 14.88p fixed in my region. Based on that, I'm not sure I'd fix for 12 months but I guess it does no harm if there are no exit fees, assuming you only use Cosy for ~3 months over winter and then switch to another tariff.

@old_scientist 

Yes but those predictions were based upon the previous situation in the ME and wholesale prices and predictions at that time (several months ago). Much has deteriorated since then, including the last few days, I don’t see how the energy suppliers can absorb a 100% increase in spot prices and an exponential trend upwards. 
My gut concern is that OE decides that cosy is operating at a loss and they pull the tariff to new customers or modify the 51% discount they use ti calculate the cosy rate. 

They didn’t hesitate to temporarily pull the IOF and flux tariffs earlier this year when the sums don’t work for them.

Posted by: @papahuhu

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@old_scientist 

Yes but those predictions were based upon the previous situation in the ME and wholesale prices and predictions at that time (several months ago). Much has deteriorated since then, including the last few days, I don’t see how the energy suppliers can absorb a 100% increase in spot prices and an exponential trend upwards. 
My gut concern is that OE decides that cosy is operating at a loss and they pull the tariff to new customers or modify the 51% discount they use ti calculate the cosy rate. 

They didn’t hesitate to temporarily pull the IOF and flux tariffs earlier this year when the sums don’t work for them.

Yes, makes sense. You've got me worried now!

Are you sure there is no exit fee for the fix?

@old_scientist 

They state it in the T&Cs, it’s different from last year where they introduced a penalty to fix at the lowest rate. I use a huge amount of electricity for the heat pump, almost 7MWh over the winter, I’ve got my credit up over the summer to about £1500 but I’d rather not use it all on excessive power costs to heat the house. 

It’s the rate of increase that scared me, from 100 in late July to 200 today, up just 4% in the last 24 hrs. I just don’t see how the generators using natural gas for their turbines can absorb such a large increase in their primary raw material without it impacting the wholesale price of electrical power. Even the renewable price is fixed to the price of gas generated power, when the wind is down. UK and EU gas storage is way down on normal, everything lining up for that perfect storm of high wholesale prices from my perspective. But I’m a very cautious and pessimistic creature, sometimes too risk averse. 

Furthermore, I recall receiving a comms from OE last Autumn, informing us that Cosy was a tariff that was loosing them money. That must also introduce some risk of them killing it for new customers.

That 14.9 fixed rate drops by 5% come 1st October because of the VAT decrease hasn’t yet been applied to it, to about 14.2. Whereas the variable stays at about 13.0. We already know the variable rate is going to increase by a minimum of 9% come 1 Jan 2027, so I’m hedging that the increase will be a lot more given the current status. If it stays at 9% I will just flip to the variable come October when the rate is known. I can’t see any downside to that.

@papahuhu Perhaps Greg should approach the Orangeman - he would sort it all out in 24 hours  - for sure! 😉

@toodles 

It’s become so much more chaotic over the weekend with Yemen that that ship has already sailed even if the US backed out now. UAE supplies large volumes of LNG, they failed to come to an arrangement with Iran yesterday, if that LNG doesn’t get out soon it’s big trouble.

It’s a bloody mess, not just that vile creature. So many causes with at least some falling at our feet with the expiry of the mandate for Palestine in 1948 and also the Anglo Persian Oil Company.

Just a friendly reminder, everyone, about the forum rules on political discussion. Politics is a subject that goes against those rules whilst the effects of politics and political events on renewables topics are fair game for discussion. I say this now precisely because I haven't seen anyone cross the line yet and would prefer to pre-empt any accidental indiscretions rather than wait until we mods have to step in. Nor do I have anyone in mind when posting this, I hasten to add.

@majordennisbloodnok That pesky telescreen 😉

@papahuhu Whenever I hear mentions of oil and or energy prices on the news, I can’t help feeling that the spokesperson or the organisation has a vested interest in the upward mobility of the price. It is almost as though there is a longing for the costs to spiral and that by even suggesting the possibility of such happenings is in itself a challenge to the industry to raise costs (as, after all, people are expecting them to rise and they wouldn’t want to disappoint anyone would they? ‘Yeah, put the price up, people have been told to expect a further increase!’ Something in the situation changes and within hours, someone will tell us that this is likely to raise prices. 🤨 Regrets, Toodles.

Posted by: @toodles

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@papahuhu Whenever I hear mentions of oil and or energy prices on the news, I can’t help feeling that the spokesperson or the organisation has a vested interest in the upward mobility of the price. It is almost as though there is a longing for the costs to spiral and that by even suggesting the possibility of such happenings is in itself a challenge to the industry to raise costs (as, after all, people are expecting them to rise and they wouldn’t want to disappoint anyone would they? ‘Yeah, put the price up, people have been told to expect a further increase!’ Something in the situation changes and within hours, someone will tell us that this is likely to raise prices. 🤨 Regrets, Toodles.

So true, and yet the profits made by oil companies always grow when the crude price is high.  So they dont have to put up the prices to consumers.

A friend of mine used to be an accountant with BP.  She tells me that they 'lose money' on their forecourt sales, implying that they do it out of generosity to the public (sure they do).  When I point out that multinationals are particularly good at manipulating profit to minimse tax, so I dont believe that they are not somehow benefiting, she doesn't have a deeper explanation.