@jamespa Maybe so, but which would be the first to ‘break ranks’?

@majordennisbloodnok whenever anyone mentions poly-ticks, Im always smiling as I re-run the dead parrot sketch in my mind. 
anyway, do i understand the VAT reduction is only on electricity, and is it temporary or permanent?

@agentgeorge Those of us fortunate enough to be on electricity only see the maximum benefit of this VAT change. Regards, Toodles.

Posted by: @agentgeorge

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@majordennisbloodnok whenever anyone mentions poly-ticks, Im always smiling as I re-run the dead parrot sketch in my mind. 
anyway, do i understand the VAT reduction is only on electricity, and is it temporary or permanent?

Correct, it's only on electricity bills (not gas), and initially is from October for the retainer of the tax year. I am guessing we will all be watching the budget in October closely to see if it will be extended to next tax year.

@old_scientist fragmented heating policy, is it on other heating products; oil, wood, bio mass?

Posted by: @agentgeorge

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@old_scientist fragmented heating policy, is it on other heating products; oil, wood, bio mass?

It's only electricity, and as such I would suggest it's not a heating-related policy as the vast majority of the UK do not heat with electric. I see it more as a cost of living policy, and applied to electricity bills puts money back into the vast majority of households pockets. If they did it on gas bills, those without mains gas would be disadvantaged.

As an aside, those who have electrified (ASHPs, EVs) will of course benefit more, as will other high electricity users.

Posted by: @old_scientist

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Posted by: @papahuhu

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@old_scientist 

Yes but those predictions were based upon the previous situation in the ME and wholesale prices and predictions at that time (several months ago). Much has deteriorated since then, including the last few days, I don’t see how the energy suppliers can absorb a 100% increase in spot prices and an exponential trend upwards. 
My gut concern is that OE decides that cosy is operating at a loss and they pull the tariff to new customers or modify the 51% discount they use ti calculate the cosy rate. 

They didn’t hesitate to temporarily pull the IOF and flux tariffs earlier this year when the sums don’t work for them.

Yes, makes sense. You've got me worried now!

Are you sure there is no exit fee for the fix?

Answering my own question, from Octopus' Cosy page:

We offer both flexible and fixed versions of Cosy. If you choose the fixed version, your prices will remain the same until the end of your term, so it's great for people who prefer certainty over what they'll be paying.

If you go for flexible, the unit rates and standing charge of the tariff could fall with wholesale energy prices, so you could save money. But do remember that they could also rise.

We'll always give reasonable notice of any changes to the pricing of flexible tariffs. When the price of our flexible tariff changes, the price of your Cosy tariff will also change (as Cosy rates are calculated as a percentage of the flexible rate in your area).

There are no exit fees or tie-ins with either version so if Cosy Octopus doesn't work for you, you're free to switch tariffs or change suppliers with no penalties at any time.

@papahuhu Your arguments have persuaded me, I will switch to Cosy Fixed after midnight tonight to lock in that rate for winter. Thank you for the helpful discussions.

@old_scientist 

I changed this morning, it’s much quicker than the change to flux. Mine took 10 mins before the new tariff was implemented on my dashboard, although they never asked me what export tariff I wanted. I’ll sort that out later if it doesn’t automatically go to outgoing. I only have the one PW3 and need every single minute of the 8 hrs of phased off peak during winter, so couldn’t afford not to be accepted back onto cosy if prices soar. 
If the price cap for Jan 2027 doesn’t increase by more than 9% we can bail, there’s nothing in the T&Cs that I accepted that prevent me doing so, plus the provision to do so was included in the FAQs too. 

Posted by: @papahuhu

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@old_scientist 

I changed this morning, it’s much quicker than the change to flux. Mine took 10 mins before the new tariff was implemented on my dashboard, although they never asked me what export tariff I wanted. I’ll sort that out later if it doesn’t automatically go to outgoing. I only have the one PW3 and need every single minute of the 8 hrs of phased off peak during winter, so couldn’t afford not to be accepted back onto cosy if prices soar. 
If the price cap for Jan 2027 doesn’t increase by more than 9% we can bail, there’s nothing in the T&Cs that I accepted that prevent me doing so, plus the provision to do so was included in the FAQs too. 

Checking my notes from last year when switching from IOF back to Cosy, I noted, like you, that the switch to Cosy for import happened very quickly. I then had to also switch to my outgoing tariff of choice, and for this part I was asked to upload a copy of my MCS certificate and DNO letter (again). It may be worth you giving Octopus a call tomorrow and seeing if you can get an agent to do the outgoing switch for you without having to upload docs again (after all, they must have had them to allow you onto Flux to begin with).

Anyway, my point, I don't think it will just sort itself out - you need to select which export tariff you want to switch to.

Have you given any thought to export tariffs? I'm thinking Agile Outgoing could be quite beneficial until we reach the point we are consuming everything we generate. Assuming export rates are high in the evening peak (current rates are around 27p I think), one could export excess battery at 7pm and recharge for 14p at the 10pm cheap rate period. If the export rates are rubbish, just store and use what solar there is this time of year. If you know tomorrow looks sunny, you could empty the battery the night before at peak rates to store the following day's solar, and if there's not as much sun as you hoped, you can top the battery off from grid before 4pm ready to export during the evening peak (a bot like Flux). This may be a decent strategy for the next 6 weeks, until end of October?

@old_scientist 

id not thought about agile export before, but I just looked at the rate for today and it was better than flux for the 16.00 - 19.00 slot. although the downside is that you need to check it everyday and manually force discharge. I’ve got some 85+ers in the household, so I probably will start the heat pump 1st Oct anyway, by that time I don’t have much excess generation capacity anyway, I’m down to 4-500 kWh a month generation in October. 

just watched sky news talking about the gas prices, I think the timing is spot on. 

Switch to Cosy 12 month fixed initiated - just waiting for my email to accept.

We are similar - PVGIS predicted generation of 420kWh for October, which doesn't quite cover our usage.

@toodles have you been following this discussion? Are you on a fix for Cosy?

Posted by: @agentgeorge

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@majordennisbloodnok whenever anyone mentions poly-ticks, Im always smiling as I re-run the dead parrot sketch in my mind. 

...

And so you should. Beautiful plumage....