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Electricity price predictions

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(@iaack)
Estimable Member Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 58
 

@jeff You seem to have a grasp of all things regulatory, so what's you view....should we be keeping an eye on what our European neighbours are doing and upgrading our gas network in harmony to theirs? Re: EU regulation 2024/1789 and in particular hydrogen blending (support upto 2%) on european  gas networks. This seems to be legislation whose impact we surely cannot totally ignore?



   
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(@batpred)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 349
 

Posted by: @transparent

There are two 'hydrogen to the home' projects occurring in the Yorkshire gas supply area.

A Blended hydrogen trial is occurring in Gateshead with 600+ homers involved.

2% blend sounds exactly what may allow to avoid too much insurance issues and liability but to divert/delay the "transition"! A scam with an aura of legitimacy?  

 


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(@batpred)
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Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 349
 

Posted by: @iaack

 Re: EU regulation 2024/1789 and in particular hydrogen blending (support upto 2%) on european  gas networks.

Is this to accept some kind of "contamination", like in case methane pipework is occasionally used to transport hydrogen for the dwindling needs of some industrial processes? 

 


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(@iaack)
Estimable Member Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 58
 

@batpred

This is part of the aims of the regulation

(5)

This Regulation aims to facilitate the penetration of renewable gas and low-carbon gas and hydrogen into the energy system, enabling a shift away from fossil gas, and to allow renewable gas and low-carbon gas and hydrogen to play an important role in achieving the Union’s 2030 climate objectives and climate-neutrality by 2050. This Regulation also aims to set up a regulatory framework which enables and incentivises all market participants to shift away from fossil gas and plan their activities to avoid lock-in effects and aims to ensure a gradual and timely phase-out of fossil gas, in particular, in all relevant industrial sectors and for heating purposes.



   
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(@batpred)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 349
 

Posted by: @iaack

@batpred

This is part of the aims of the regulation

(5)

This Regulation aims to facilitate the penetration of renewable gas and low-carbon gas and hydrogen into the energy system, enabling a shift away from fossil gas, and to allow renewable gas and low-carbon gas and hydrogen to play an important role in achieving the Union’s 2030 climate objectives and climate-neutrality by 2050. This Regulation also aims to set up a regulatory framework which enables and incentivises all market participants to shift away from fossil gas and plan their activities to avoid lock-in effects and aims to ensure a gradual and timely phase-out of fossil gas, in particular, in all relevant industrial sectors and for heating purposes.

I can hear those screeching tyres... the end of Russian gas, desperate measures required...

Plus their industrial policies have been genuinely planning to mop up excess wind electricity and produce hydrogen. Without significant domestic fossil fuel players and a typical tight regulatory framework, they may stick to a straight and narrow path. 

I saw there's a UK consultation to formally accept the alignment. 

 


This post was modified 3 weeks ago by Batpred

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(@iaack)
Estimable Member Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 58
 

@batpred my understanding is the current limit for hydrogen within the natural gas network in GB is 0.1% by volume, as set out under the Gas Safety (Management) Regulations 1996 (GS(M)R). If gas blended with hydrogen >0.1% reaches an interconnector it could not currently be accepted by GB. In this scenario the interconnector would temporarily cease activity until such time as the available gas came back into quality requirements of the GS(M)R.



   
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(@batpred)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 349
 

@iaack 

 

Yes, I think this is why this consultation is under way https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/hydrogen-blending-into-the-gb-gas-transmission-network/hydrogen-blending-into-the-gb-gas-transmission-network-consultation-document  

Hopefully there's no lobby pushing to keep it as is.. 


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Transparent
(@transparent)
Illustrious Member Moderator
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 2824
 

Posted by: @diverted-energy

... there is nowhere near enough Surplus electricity to replace the UK volume of Gas as i said earlier.

We need it for EVs and your beloved Heat Pumps over generation of Hydrogen.

As for Portsmouth, it is the worst possible place to produce Hydrogen due to the whole South Coast being in a desert of Renewables.

That's understandable...
but I was referring to our 'other' naval base at Plymouth  😎 

It's the home base for the Royal Marines, one of the few sections of our defence forces which can be mobilised independently, without also requiring other regiments to provide logistics, catering etc.

The Marines are a good choice for trialing hybrid warfare, using new technology incorporating drones and autonomous vehicles.
The UK is learning fast from what's happening in Ukraine.

Plymouth is within the area of the electricity grid where there is substantial excess generation.
That will continue to be the case for another decade.

Surplus Aug23 Lbl

 

Unlike the south coast further to the east, the use of electrolysis to produce green hydrogen at Plymouth is a perfectly sensible use of energy which would otherwise be discarded.

I do have exact figures for the (lack of) 'reverse power' capacity which affects the 400kV Grid Supply Points in Cornwall and Devon.
But they're on a part of the National Grid data library which isn't publicly accessible.

What I probably can tell you is that one of those GSPs currently has 60% more connected generation in winter than its available capacity, and a queue of accepted generation which will take it to 513% over-supply.

Another GSP has 22% more winter generation than its capacity rating, and a connection queue which will raise that to 414% over-supply.

Surplus generation is yet higher in summer.

The area coloured brown on the above map attained an annual excess of supply over demand in Spring'23.
There is no shortage of electrical power in the area, but prices are higher than in London.


Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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(@batpred)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 349
 

It seems the end of cfd payments is in sight, even if a few years away... 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/09/ofgem-investment-uk-electricity-superhighways?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other


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Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
Illustrious Member Admin
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 3849
 

Does anyone have a current graphic, visual or breakdown of all the stuff that's loaded into an electricity tariff (post autumn budget announcement)?


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(@judith)
Noble Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 447
 

Posted by: @editor

Does anyone have a current graphic, visual or breakdown of all the stuff that's loaded into an electricity tariff (post autumn budget announcement)?

Ben Watts posted on LinkedIn that he had updated this web page to reflect the budget 

https://www.electricitybills.uk I can’t see a lot of difference in the 2030 projected cost though!

 


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