Posted by: @transparent

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Do you believe NESO when they say that the Offers to Connect (to the grid) are four times what is required to meet decarbonisation of the grid by 2030?

That alone, assuming it's true, suggests that generation is too lucrative.  Which prima facie is at variance with zero bids for a windrarm licence call about 2 years ago.  What's changed, or are we getting too many bids for the wrong kind (IE time characteristics) of generation 

Posted by: @transparent

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Posted by: @batpred

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[...] consent is often  refused for energy projects. 

[...] What always seems to be missing is sense of urgency. 

Do you there should be urgency to grant consent for more energy generation and storage sites?

Do you have data or evidence to underpin that?

In general, in order for the market to work and drive prices down, oversupply is required, so the more get closer to the finishing line, the better. 

As for evidence: 

Posted by: @batpred

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Just to have a power transformation station to bring offshore wind power to Suffolk, 500 documents on various studies were needed. I am not even sure if building started! 

When I talk about lack of sense of urgency, I am thinking about this type of example! 

Posted by: @transparent

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Do you believe NESO when they say that the Offers to Connect (to the grid) are four times what is required to meet decarbonisation of the grid by 2030?

Yes, but at the end of the day, NESO has a role to work with the market and with the uncertainty of the planning processes...

I am not familiar with what "offers to connect" means. Is that a commitment? And what % of these projects would have started building?   

@batpred after following this thread over the last few days I personally think this is another UK wrapping itself up in millions of pounds of bureaucracy and not getting anything done for decades whilst other countries are years ahead. Sadly the world does not have decades!

Think I am more than encouraged to invest in my own power generation now as I cannot see prices coming down in the next 20+ years.  🙁

Posted by: @batpred

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in order for the market to work and drive prices down, oversupply is required,

That's not how the electricity wholesale market (Elexon) operates.

The last 'trade' in each half-hour period sets the price for all generation, irrespective of source.

The market closes 10-mins prior to that supply-slot starting.
Thus for electricity required to meet demand 13:00 - 13:30, the last trade must have occurred by 12:50.

A Domestic Energy Supplier can strike a deal to buy 500MWh of electricity from a solar-farm owner at 10:00.
But the price the solar-farm receives is based on whatever (high) rate is agreed with the trader offering the least-favourable electricity almost three hours later.

To drive up these prices, the owners of renewable-electricity generation and BESS sites are able to sell their electricity elsewhere in Europe, using the marine interconnectors.
During winter storms, when wind-farms need to protect the turbines by turning them out of the wind, NESO is then forced to draw on CCGT plants.

Britain's generous incentives for companies to build more solar/wind and BESS plants connected to our grid are operating against the interests of the country.

Consumers face higher bills to reinforce the grid infrastructure, but we can't recover that through lower bills in the future.

Posted by: @transparent

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Posted by: @batpred

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in order for the market to work and drive prices down, oversupply is required,

That's not how the electricity wholesale market (Elexon) operates.

..

To drive up these prices, the owners of renewable-electricity generation and BESS sites are able to sell their electricity elsewhere in Europe, using the marine interconnectors.

I am aware how the market operates on a high level. Given potential downtime of farms, wind not blowing everywhere at the same time, etc, over capacity is always required. But see my comments below. 

If energy needs to be sold to the highest bidder elsewhere so that the investments are made, I do not see a problem. They will still supply us (setting aside self inflicted delays like 500 docs to approve mooring cables in Suffolk..).

Interconnectors may also work in reverse, and when our wholesale price is higher, there would be incentive to sell to us. Given that, inherently, wind based generation is cheaper than CCGT/gas, I would expect it to lead to more periods where gas generation is priced out, leading to lower wholesale price. 

Posted by: @transparent

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During winter storms, when wind-farms need to protect the turbines by turning them out of the wind, NESO is then forced to draw on CCGT plants.

Given that the best data I could find indicates average downtimes (all causes: maintenance, faults, weather) of wind turbines are around 1-6% of time, this is not causing many carbon emissions. Modern turbines routinely hit 98-99% time based availability overall. 

According to industry sources, storm / high-wind cut-out events are:

• Infrequent (a handful of events over several years in the Macdonald study). 

• Short (hours, not days, per event).

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/information-consumers/energy-advice-households/get-energy-price-cap-standing-charges-and-unit-rates-region

Interesting to see the net effect. Unit rates of electricity increasing, Unit rates of gas falling. 

We may even see more drastic cuts in unit rates of gas next year if the current Ukrainian talks progress. A 5 year low is not impossible. 

Obviously a lot depends on what tariff people are actually on and the price cap is always a backward looking historical calculation of wholesale costs. 

@jeff thanks for that. It looks like electricity prices just won’t go down, even though wholesale energy costs have fallen over the last three months. I also understand that payments towards the construction of the Sizewell C nuclear plant have now been added to everyone’s bills. On top of that, the Warm Home Discount scheme that supports lower-income households has also been factored in.

So even though the raw cost of energy is falling, these extra charges are keeping bills high. From the emails I receive, this is becoming a major reason homeowners are hesitant about heat pumps. When you combine high electricity prices with installs that deliver a SCOP below 3.4, many people simply can’t make the numbers stack up and that’s a problem for the whole sector.

And let’s not forget that VAT is being charged on top of this.

Until people understanding the problem with electricity prices is due to prices linked to Gas generation and our reliance on it until alternatives are in place then electricity prices are going nowhere until at least 2035 - so people need to wake up to this reality.

Wait until April, up another £75 with nothing to suggest next Winter will be cheaper.

This country is suffering the lack of foresight and investment and this is the price you pay for it.

With 185kwh free courtesy of EDF Sunday Saver every weekend, Economy7 at 12.3p per kwh hour and Gas at 6p - we're doing good.

£2 to £3 per day, Gas boost in the morning, Air 2 Air to maintain. Yesterday we used 10kwh Gas and 25kwh of electricity  - 8kwh from the roof and 17kwh overnight into batteries. £2.69.

hence the reason for not getting involved with BUS as sometimes boiler is the best backup on cold days. Government needs to understand that keeping boilers as backup / boosters takes some load of the Grid for a little CO2 against annual output.

We're changing our EV and current has done 42K. At average 45g CO2 per kwh it's responsible for around 500kg CO2 in the time we've had it against 12000kg from the petrol it replaced.

Believe me - electricity prices are going nowhere and the more demand, the more we burn and with it, the more we pay.

Look at Wholesale this week compared to last when it was windy. But somehow Renewables are a scam and con job.

Like I said last time to comments, Heat Pumps are only financially viable if there is cheap and subsidised tariffs / Solar to run them. Until then, we're getting nowhere as 80yrs payback just doesn't add up.

@diverted-energy

Posted by: @diverted-energy

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£2 to £3 per day, Gas boost in the morning, Air 2 Air to maintain. Yesterday we used 10kwh Gas and 25kwh of electricity  - 8kwh from the roof and 17kwh overnight into batteries. £2.69.

hence the reason for not getting involved with BUS as sometimes boiler is the best backup on cold days. Government needs to understand that keeping boilers as backup / boosters takes some load of the Grid for a little CO2 against annual output.

We're changing our EV and current has done 42K. At average 45g CO2 per kwh it's responsible for around 500kg CO2 in the time we've had it against 12000kg from the petrol it replaced.

Interesting, I have now adopted a similar strategy with my HP and oil boiler and am grateful I decided to avoid the BUS grant now. Hoping to improve on the strategy savings when I get my solar / battery system installed next month.

Regards

Posted by: @diverted-energy

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Like I said last time to comments, Heat Pumps are only financially viable if there is cheap and subsidised tariffs / Solar to run them. Until then, we're getting nowhere as 80yrs payback just doesn't add up.

Er not sure that is universally true.  Mine is cheaper overall to run that my gas boiler would have been, by about 20% or thereabouts.  I have radiators, not super low temp UFH, and a 7kW 1930s house which is tolerably well insulated but not by any means super insulated.  I am not playing tricks with a battery because I don't have one.  I do have solar but the cost calculations ignore that, so actually its a bit cheaper still. 

Correctly set up heat pumps can beat fossil on cost, as well as being much more comfortable and of course much more eco friendly.  I do acknowledge that 'correctly set up' can be a problem however and would argue that the levies currently loaded on electricity prices alone should either be shifted to general taxation or to gas in order to encourage take up and stop penalising those who have done the right thing.

Posted by: @jamespa

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I do acknowledge that 'correctly set up' can be a problem however and would argue that the levies currently loaded on electricity prices alone should either be shifted to general taxation or to gas in order to encourage take up and stop penalising those who have done the right thing.

Shifting taxes to gas is the obvious answer...

Well, that's easy then, @batpred

All we need to do now is to get Ofgem to listen to you!