Posted by: @papahuhu

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@old_scientist 

That was a long time, I guess a lot of folks jumped over in a short time. Revenue has been at least 50% up.
AI has been fine, 95% satisfied, I could squeeze a couple of KWh out if I were constantly tweaking it, but I’m happy to let it do its thing. Has shown no evidence of learning yet. It’s better for me to show you.

Any questions, ask.

Many thanks, pictures show all 👍 

Commentary from the left wing press on the upgraded figures for the electricity network upgrade. 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/30/great-britain-electricity-network-90bn-pounds-2030s

Be interesting to see how this filters through to consumer bills. 

AR8 strike price caps for next auction round have been announced

Index linked for 20 years, in 2024 prices so already higher. Always need to be careful when comparing figures as they often have different base years. 

Quite a few news articles, just one example. 

https://www.renews.biz/other-news/uk-freezes-ar8-strike-price-caps/

Floating and deep water turbines are both £271/MWh which is dramatically more than current average market rate for electricity overall to subsidise the technology. Be interesting to see if the rate falls in future actions.

Timeline for anyone interested

https://www.cfdallocationround.uk/ar8-timeline

Full EVs and heat pump rollout is behind so be interesting to see if curtailment costs etc to continue to increase due to a mismatch in supply and demand.

Your guess is as good as mine on UK gas prices. About as good as it gets for now? 

Posted by: @jeff

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Full EVs and heat pump rollout is behind so be interesting to see if curtailment costs etc to continue to increase due to a mismatch in supply and demand 

I'm glad  not responsible for trying to get this right and frsnkly admire those that are.  Given the lead time for the development of new capacity and all the uncertainties it must be akin to a guessing game.  Add given the public/political pressure (and politically generated uncertainty) it must also be a nightmare.

The public will surely criticise curtailment costs, but will criticise even more the consequences of insufficient capacity.  If the government attempts to control demand to smooth the peaks, the public will criticise.   Basically whatever the plan is the people planning it will get it in the neck from the great British public.  

@jamespa The criticism only relates to the cost and in relation to our peer states. I just looked at the 2024 figures and we had the highest industrial supply and second highest domestic costs. Difficult to conclude anything other than we’ve made a worse job of this than everyone else, that is highly indicative of maximal incompetence to me.

Posted by: @papahuhu

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Difficult to conclude anything other than we’ve made a worse job of this than everyone else, that is highly indicative of maximal incompetence to me.

Perhaps private investment/the free market, which is what we have predominantly relied on, doesn't work for essential monopolies after all. 

Just saying of course.

Posted by: @papahuhu

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Difficult to conclude anything other than we’ve made a worse job of this than everyone else, that is highly indicative of maximal incompetence to me.

Incompetence, yes. By whom and for what reason?

It strikes me that those figures predate the current government policy decisions which have been, correct me if I am wrong, consistent.  I would argue that it is inconsistent policy decisions for the past 15 or so years that have created the uncertainty that leads to waste, inefficiency and confusion in the industry.

Having only this week returned from a tour of Denmark, via The Netherlands and Germany, it is clear from the infrastructure on show (a crude measure, admittedly) that Europe is years ahead of the UK position and that the public have engaged much more positively with the shift to fossil-free and have presumably accepted the investment costs.  I suggest this is due to a consistent approach, which would be totally undermined should Labour not retain power in 2029.  I say that NOT as a 'lefty', only that we need that consistency.  I am not making a political point.

Posted by: @kevh

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It strikes me that those figures predate the current government policy decisions which have been, correct me if I am wrong, consistent.  

True IMHO.

Posted by: @kevh

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.  I would argue that it is inconsistent policy decisions for the past 15 or so years that have created the uncertainty that leads to waste, inefficiency and confusion in the industry.

Were they inconsistent, or were they consistently based on an idological position that profit is a better driver of effective (for whom?) delivery for the public (which public) good than a public service ethos? 

Is that incompetence or competence in achieving a different objective to the one assumed?

I would say that they were pretty consistent if you analyse it this way.

Likewise not a political position, just an observation of the underlying drivers as I see them.

A chunk of our pricing is geographical. It's a small damp rock that despite being soggy somehow managed not to have much hydro either. That makes our interconnects expensive and our locations for generation more limited. Our weather lacks predictable short cycles.

Privatization was also a mess - and it's just that unlike railtrack and the water the underinvestment and inevitable collapse hasn't yet happened. In fact it seems we were ultimately lucky that railtrack did implode spectacularly early on so we still have a working railway network.

Then we didn't invest in nuclear when we should have, and we are now investing in nuclear when we shouldn't.

Some of it is pure politics - terrible mishandling of solar and land based wind, failure to beat the grid operators into investing. A lot of that continues. Only Scotland has sane solar panel deployment rules. None of the UK has sane plug in solar regulations despite it being years old technology. Yes Milliband is finally kicking this through but someone well before Boris Johnson should have been paying the IET to do the necessary studies.

The planning farce is going to get much worse shortly when tens of thousands of people plant 800W of solar in an English garden or up a fence and a Reform powered council sends out thousands of threats to fine them for breaching planning regulations.

In terms of pricing and "as good as it gets", we are potentially a decade IMHO away from it beginning to make sense for people to start quitting the grid entirely because it'll be cheaper to overinvest in solar and battery and just run a generator now and then.

Posted by: @etchedpixels

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The planning farce is going to get much worse shortly when tens of thousands of people plant 800W of solar in an English garden or up a fence and a Reform powered council sends out thousands of threats to fine them for breaching planning regulations.

That will be an interesting one. All 'Development' requires consent (permiitted development is just statutory consent).

So it will probably come down to the definition of 'developmemt', which in law Is

The carrying out of building, engineering, mining, or other operations in, on, over, or under land or material change of use

and "building operations ” includes—

(a)demolition of buildings;

(b)rebuilding;

(c)structural alterations of or additions to buildings; and

(d)other operations normally undertaken by a person carrying on business as a builder.

If it were judged by the American supreme court then there is no doubt what the outcome would be.  For now we thankfully have an independent judiciary so I think the outcome may not favour the council.  

Posted by: @jamespa

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If it were judged by the American supreme court then there is no doubt what the outcome would be.  For now we thankfully have an independent judiciary so I think the outcome may not favour the council.  

We don't have a remotely independent judiciary. We never have. It's a posh gentlemens club operation shared with the top of the civil service and many of our MPs.

The question about whether hanging two panels on your fence is development is a fun one. It's not an area of law I've had to work with lawyers on so I have no idea. I also doubt any council planning officer (as opposed to politician) is short of better things to do with their time either.

Certainly we used to get away with murder with amateur radio antenna by taking them down for a service once a year so they were temporary 8)

Posted by: @etchedpixels

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We don't have a remotely independent judiciary. We never have. It's a posh gentlemens club operation shared with the top of the civil service and many of our MPs.

Judging by the number of times a government minister express disappointment at what a judge has decided, or our court if appeal or supreme court rule government action illegal, I would question that.  

Certainly it's much better than the American supreme court has now become and many of our judges appear to be quite content ruling against the government, which is very healthy despite the attempts of a certain wing press to tell us otherwise or brand them 'enemies of the people'.

Posted by: @etchedpixels

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The question about whether hanging two panels on your fence is development is a fun one. It's not an area of law I've had to work with lawyers on so I have no idea. I also doubt any council planning officer (as opposed to politician) is short of better things to do with their time either.

Absolutely on all counts.