@scalextrix 

Adding a Heat Pump will rotate your electricity meter at a rapid rate in the cooler wetter months without much solar to slow it down.

I'd take a guess and say that your panels won't produce 20-30kwh a day in these months.

How much will your electricity cost to import when the HP needs it the most?

@bash I don't understand your point, or why you are making it.  To me, these things are about long term average, not cherry picking a few bad days in winter.

This seems to be tending into an internet time-waste, which is why I rarely come on the forums now.  I'm going radio silent again.

@scalextrix 

I apologise if I offended you, or wasted your time.

This is a 100 page thread on electricity price predictions and everyone will have their own opinion, all valid and with much speculation.

As this forum is about renewable energy, the consumption and generation I felt my own lived experience, which is different to many on here might be of help. It has and is working incredibly well for me, hopefully yours is too.

I have done my due diligence, stated my reasons and logic from research and personal endeavour.

Some may agree, some may not and some hopefully might find it useful to find out information from someone who can show how it can be done differently, how this has worked and how it might work in the future.

The fact you don't agree, doesn't make me right or you wrong, it's just a different way of thinking.

The long term average of off peak energy pricing and tariffs is not cherry picking, it is fact.

They have been around for years, have been very stable and are predicted to stay that way for many years to come. This is my rational for choosing my home energy strategy.

Hopefully that explains and I hope you haven't taken offence.

@scalextrix I align with your way of thinking. Solar definitely is the way forward for me and my family. This also gives me the insurance policy if electricity prices go up for what ever reason. If the price difference between off-peak and peak rates start to flatten for ToU tariffs, I still have the option of storing all the power produced in my batteries and run the house entirely off what I produce, for at least 6 months in the year.

Also, even in peak winter, there are enough decent days to reduce the dependency on the grid during the peak 4 pm to 7 pm time period from the battery, as solar gives me that little bit extra during the day to avoid draining the batteries. Now that February is nearly there, we would soon start producing enough to not use peak rates at all. Anything else is a bonus.

Posted by: @toodles

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@old_scientist Bit like the Stock Market innit?! ☹️

If only electricity prices could experience a market crash or a lost decade.

Why Is Electricity in the UK Still Four Times The Price Of Gas?

Posted by: @editor

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Why Is Electricity in the UK Still Four Times The Price Of Gas?

At least in part because our gas is half the price that it is in many mainland european countries.  Check it out!  The 'problem' is, at least arguably, not expensive electricity its cheap gas.

@editor Well, Greg Jackson described the present pricing structure as “Bonkers’ I don’t think I can improve on that! Toodles.

Posted by: @toodles

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@editor Well, Greg Jackson described the present pricing structure as “Bonkers’ I don’t think I can improve on that! Toodles.

I could, but it would break forum rules.

Posted by: @jamespa

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At least in part because our gas is half the price that it is in many mainland european countries.  Check it out!  The 'problem' is, at least arguably, not expensive electricity its cheap gas.

Yes, we know what we are getting away with, burning all this gas... One weak defense is that aviation and the like may pay less/zero for the carbon they emit from the total budget..

Taxation has to be used to balance the emissions budget, I think.. A lot of individual decisions are needed and change based on goodwill will not go very far.  

@scalextrix I'm with you for your postings though I have a different take on solar up here. In December here the sun rises typically at 08:30 and sets by 15:45, there are typically 15 overcast days and about an hour of visible sun per day through the month on average. By January we're up to an average of 90 minutes/day of visible sun but still 15 overcast days and daylight today was from 08:11 till 16:45. These are the two months with the highest demand and the lowest COP and so focussing on these two months is not cherry picking as was suggested - it is important and accounts for a disproportionate fraction of bills.

I was on the OvO discounted tariff but this will be discontinued soon and I'll need to move on to either a standard tariff or a ToU one. Without solar or an energy store has anyone found a way of taking advantage of ToU tariffs with a heat pump that doesn't go back to large swings in house temperature and a reduction in thermodynamic efficiency?

I have a hybrid system here with a small modern oil boiler as backup and I can see myself going back to oil on the coldest days. It isn't what I want to do but paying through the nose because our government doesn't take sustainable heating seriously isn't sensible either. I'll generate a small fraction of the CO2 that I produced earlier. 

265 m^2 bungalow, central Scotland, pretty much designed to radiate heat.

Vaillant AroTHERM 10 kW ASHP, buffer tank, Danesmoor 18/25 condensing system boiler

@dr_dongle Octopus Tracker is worth considering.

• Linked to wholesale prices 
• Priced same for whole day - so no faff 
• Likrly to save 20% vs standard or fixed rates
• On a handful of days you might have high rates - still averaging out fine. But you can avoid by using oil if preferred
• While there are no exit fees, if you leave the Tracker tariff, you cannot rejoin for 9 months.

Octopus Agile has wholesale rates changing every 30 mins.

• Bigger faff factor to manage
• If you can manage correctly savings likely to be bigger
• Especially if peak avoided by using oil