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Heat Pump deployment statistics: June 2026

 
Air Source Heat Pumps (ASHPs)
Last Post by Old_Scientist 19 seconds ago
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 Old_Scientist
(@old_scientist)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 559
Topic starter 17/09/2026 10:50 am   [#3165]

Last week the government published the heat pump deployment figures through to June 2026:

Figures for the first half of 2026 show a significant slowing in the rate of installs, which will presumably fall further as the ECO4 scheme continues to wind down.

Where does the heat pump market go from here? How does it continue to build momentum?

 


This topic was modified 52 minutes ago by Old_Scientist

Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW). Net Zero


   
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JamesPa
 JamesPa
(@jamespa)
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17/09/2026 11:24 am  

Posted by: @old_scientist
↑

Where does the heat pump market go from here? How does it continue to build momentum?

 

Personally I don't think it can until it reinvents itself completely.  Currently it's designed like a bespoke tailoring service with every install requiring a master tailor.and a vast lead time,  not a mass market produt (with product options that together cover most cases) where the vast majority of installs require only your local plumber.

Octopus and heat geek are both pushing in significant ways on the right buttons but it is going to be slow without determined top- down redesign, which would almost certainly need to be a government initiative because the current industry would perceive the type of redesign needed as a threat.

With only 2.5 years to the next election there is insufficient time to complete this in the current term of government. 


4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.


   
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 Old_Scientist
(@old_scientist)
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Topic starter 17/09/2026 11:43 am  

The ‘Warm Homes Plan’ was subsequently published in January 2026, which included details of the government’s aim to achieve 450,000 heat pump installations per year by 2030.

I have to say, on current evidence the above does seem like a pipe dream (sorry, couldn't resist!) and completely unachievable (going from current 50k per year to 450k per year in 4 years). Looks more likely the industry may consolidate at a base of around 50k installs per year whilst it figures out how to grow from there. 

 


Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW). Net Zero


   
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