@Mars at the time of writing heating oil is £1.28 / ltr in our area. One positive item to come out of all this is my Wife, who was very sceptical of all this renewable technology, is not so sceptical anymore. She is now glad I ignored her and went ahead with everything! 😀

Posted by: @old_scientist

↑

The current UK system sounds very similar to the Greek system, except that in the UK every bidder is automatically paid the highest price (normally that of the gas power stations) rather than going through the process above whereby cheaper supplier can bid up their price. The solution is to completely remove dependence on the most expensive sources of electricity so only the cheaper (renewable) sources remain.

I believe the concept of paying the price of the highest bidder works as long as the carbon emissions price is adjusted to account for the damage it is doing..

Greece is a coastal country with wind and where the sun shines most of the year so it probably was mostly a case of countering anti competitive practices etc and let the system find a new balance. 40% is a big improvement on previous years, it must have saved lots in terms of fossil fuel imports.... Curious how it got there.. 

Posted by: @batpred

↑

40% is a big improvement on previous years, it must have saved lots in terms of fossil fuel imports.... Curious how it got there.. 

 

Not sure if this answers your question, anyway the below chart depicts today’s production planning mix (and the wholesale price becoming practically zero when wind and solar dominate almost entirely production output).

Wind and PV capacity has increased sharply during the last years, driving lignite almost out of production. It would have been entirely out had it not been for Ukraine (reserves are being kept still alive). Hydro is circa 3.4GW installed capacity.

There are still oil based plants in the islands that are not connected to the mainland’s grid (many do have RES but they cannot rely on RES alone). We all pay a small extra charge in our bills to support the financial viability of power production in the islands.

In June 2025 this academic group at Oxford modelled the impact on supply of LNG and hence price of closing the Strait of Hormuz. Their conclusion price up 2x but also that it is unlikely to happen. Shame about the second part of their predictions(!)

Since LNG affects our electricity prices we’re in for another wild ride. More panels and bigger battery might be cost effective yet!

OXFORDENERGY.ORG "https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Comment-Closing-the-Strait-of-Hormuz-impact-on-the-Global-Gas-Market-reissue.pdf"

As a full price electricity user (nae smart meter signal) I am suffering kerosene price envy! £1.28/ltr is 12p/KWh.....  I remember those days!  😥 

Posted by: @abernyte

↑

As a full price electricity user (nae smart meter signal) I am suffering kerosene price envy! £1.28/ltr is 12p/KWh.....  I remember those days!  😥 

Why?

Factor in 85% efficiency for that oil boiler and you're looking at more like 14p/kWh.

Therefore, a heat pump with a COP of 4 (easily achievable this time of year) would be comparable at 56p/kWh electricity price so even at SVR of a round 28p/kWh, a heat pump is half the price of an oil boiler given current kerosene prices. I note our local distributor has been charging £1.55/L for the last few days, which makes the equivalent electricity price more like 70p/kWh for a COP of 4 (so oil is currently 2.5 times more expensive than the SVR).

I get it's no fun not having access to cheaper tariffs, but I for one certainly do not miss the wildly varying price of oil.

You must live in balmy climes, minus 1C and snowing here yesterday so who knows what COP may or may not be achieved or what efficiency that oil boiler has but paying 12p or 14p/kWh for the most polluting heating fuel is a perverse distortion in a seriously broken energy market.

@old_scientist 

"Therefore, a heat pump with a COP of 4 (easily achievable this time of year)".................. Whaaat! I struggle to get anywhere near a COP of 3!

I would love to achieve 4. Actually, I'd love to achieve 3!

@morgan @old_scientist 

i agree that a COP of 4 is achievable at this time of year. The figure for the full week for us is 5.0 but I think it’s ~5% optimistic. The coldest day showed full power used in the middle of the night (defrosting clearly on the load figure too) but the day warmed up.

Now that the world economy is getting a sharp lesson in who really holds world influence, ie Iran (potentially backed by Russia and China), due to the single point of "failure" ie the Strait of Hormuz and the potential major impact on the UK and world economy, do people think this situation will add weight to Ed Milliband's drive to energy independence?

I have a number of neighbours who are dependent on heating oil and at the time of me installing my renewable's equipment thought I was spending a large amount of money unnecessarily. Now those same neighbours are facing a 100% increase in their energy costs and are looking at me with jealous eye's. Will this Iran conflict reinvigorate the UK population to transition to renewable's in the future?

Interesting thought

@technogeek, on Ed Miliband's push for energy independence, the answer is a clear yes IMO. This crisis is adding serious weight to it. In his recent statements to Parliament and media interviews, Miliband has repeatedly framed the events as a stark reminder that the UK's long-term security lies in breaking dependence on volatile global fossil fuel markets and accelerating to clean, home-grown power sources we control.

He has emphasised doubling down on renewables deployment, domestic generation and reducing exposure to imported commodities whose prices swing wildly on geopolitical events. The government I believe is actively exploring short-term measures (potential fuel duty adjustments and targeted support for hard-hit households), but the strategic message is consistent, crises like this prove why speeding up the transition is essential.

Will it reinvigorate public momentum for renewables? It already is for many, I think... your neighbours' reaction is a microcosm of that. Past disruptions (Ukraine invasion, 2021-22 price surges) drove record interest in solar, heat pumps and insulation. This episode, with its direct hit on off-grid heating oil users and indirect pressure on grid-tied bills via marginal pricing, is likely to do the same. People remember the pain of volatility far longer than abstract arguments about payback periods. When neighbours see stable running costs from a heat pump or solar setup while their oil bills explode, word spreads fast, practical resilience sells itself. This episode has made me re-think our heat pump replacement strategy.

It's a grim way to learn the lesson, but if this conflict accelerates installs, self-consumption and off-grid alternatives where feasible, it could turn a short-term crisis into longer-term gains for energy security and affordability.

Posted by: @judith

↑

In June 2025 this academic group at Oxford modelled the impact on supply of LNG and hence price of closing the Strait of Hormuz. Their conclusion price up 2x but also that it is unlikely to happen. Shame about the second part of their predictions(!)

Since LNG affects our electricity prices we’re in for another wild ride. More panels and bigger battery might be cost effective yet!

Classic case of academics nailing the "what if" maths but completely missing the "when some bloke decides to go full chaos mode" wildcard. Unfortunately their model clearly never factored in a certain someone (who we can't mention by name so as not to violate my own forum rules on staying non-political) whose plans (or clear lack of them) have now turned "unlikely" into "definitely happening right now." Whoops!