Posted by: @jamespa

↑

Posted by: @editor

↑

The answer, if there is one, lies not in abandoning the endeavour but in recognising its limits. Individual and national action, however diligent, cannot insulate against a world where conflict remains the ultimate emitter. The fires in Tehran are burning more than oil, when the blazes at Shahran alone can release in days the carbon equivalent saved annually by tens of thousands of British heat pump and solar homes, one is forced to ask whether all this domestic effort is simply futile

No it isn't.  Conflicts will continue, its the human condition and we can only change what we can change.  The good news is that climate change may well be non linear, but it isn't binary.  Every tonne of carbon we save here reduces global warming a bit and makes it less likely that tipping points will be reached and more likely that the worst effects will be avoided.  Furthermore, every time we build a wind turbine, fit a solar panel or move a house off of gas, we take another step to becoming energy independent, as opposed to our current position of perilous dependence on a resource shipped from despot countries through fragile shipping routes.  Doing this is a key pilar of national security in a highly insecure world.  

@editor 

I share your frustration and I often feel like an ant in front of an army of a gazillion of elephants, but I am 100% with @jamespa on this. 

We started our 4 year investment plan on insulation/pv panels/heat pump, not because we expected a viable ROI but because the 2021 wildfires in our country shook us to our core. 

I believe that climate change is the biggest challenge the world is facing and as a mother and part of the generation who f**ked up, I will do everything in my power to promote awareness and action.

I try to instill in my son and his friends a culture of low energy and low water consumption, I confront and challenge my (beloved) US-based relatives who seems to have no sense of the urgency (ignoring all the while the smirks), I make an effort to use public transportation and yes I support Greenpeace (even though I do not agree with all their actions, at least they do take action).

Even if I am a tiny ant, I will not give up. Every drop, every gram of fossil fuels that is not burned counts.

Posted by: @morgan

↑

@old_scientist 

I have switched to solar and a heat pump, but retain an oil-fired AGA.

"I wonder if prices will be as quick to drop at the back end of the crisis?"  I suspect that we all know the answer to that. 🤬 

Oil typically does… if prices normalise back to pre-war levels it’ll probably take a week for us to get back to 50-60p per litre.

@bobflux I’m always staggered by how much coal Germany still burns and their coal mines are gigantic!

Posted by: @editor

↑

My piece wasn’t arguing we should stop (far from it) but highlighting how disproportionate the carbon math can feel when a single strike undoes household-level savings on a massive scale.

Yes, it is a good observation I had not heard before.

Targeting oil and gas infrastructure is an act that does not attract the same scrutiny. Not long ago, the high losses of methane to the atmosphere from operations in the Gulf were painstakingly reduced. 

One positive effect of the bombing and cycles of price hikes is that they may lead many consumers to take steps to reduce their dependency on fossil fuels. I see no signs of any erosion of the transition towards a decarbonised future. 

But the reaction to the bombing confirms that armies are not being scrutinized regarding the emissions that their attacks are causing. 

@Morgan I've been hearing that kerosene is currently selling for £1.57/litre! Staggering!

Posted by: @editor

↑

@Morgan I've been hearing that kerosene is currently selling for £1.57/litre! Staggering!

In order to keep track of how much our switch to heat pump/solar PV setup is costing or saving us I keep an eye on the price of the heating oil we would've had to buy. In December, we'd've been buying at 70.29p/L ex VAT. I've just checked today (although historically we wouldn't have needed to buy again until May) and the same supplier is currently quoting 138.59p/L ex VAT. That's an increase of 97%.

Posted by: @majordennisbloodnok

↑

Posted by: @editor

↑

@Morgan I've been hearing that kerosene is currently selling for £1.57/litre! Staggering!

In order to keep track of how much our switch to heat pump/solar PV setup is costing or saving us I keep an eye on the price of the heating oil we would've had to buy. In December, we'd've been buying at 70.29p/L ex VAT. I've just checked today (although historically we wouldn't have needed to buy again until May) and the same supplier is currently quoting 138.59p/L ex VAT. That's an increase of 97%.

Same here - I record the price of oil on the 1st of each month in my spreadsheet and work out what my break even price for electricity would be given my current monthly COP (even though I'm on Cosy, I'm interested to know if a heat pump on the SVR would be cheaper than the oil boiler it replaced)

At the start of the month kerosene was 62.5p per litre here, yesterday it peaked at 144p and this morning it's down slightly at 135p (inc VAT) - more than double pre-war prices.

I keep hearing on the news that suppliers won't quote for delivery. That's not due to any shortages in kero, simply that they would rather do no business than trade at a loss where the price is currently so volatile. I'm guessing they'd rather lose a few orders and wait a few days for things to stabilise a bit.

Since electricity prices follow oil and gas prices, I thought I’d share with whomever is interested what happened here after the invasion in Ukraine and how government intervened to moderate prices.
Warning: this is a long post, aimed at those who have an academic interest in how markets work in other parts of the world.

First some basic (simplified) background about how the electricity market works here for medium and low voltage customers:

1. All electricity producers chip in their production in a common pool, at a price that they deem best serves their interests (variable throughout the day)

2. The System Operator decides the variable mix of producers that actually will participate each day (based on price optimization and system stability criteria)

3. All electricity sellers buy from this common pool at the variable spot price determined by the System Operator and subsequently resell it to end users (each using their own commercial policy)

4. Greece has a high percentage (>50%) of renewables in the daily mix (solar, wind and hydro)

Following the invasion in Ukraine, oil and natural gas prices skyrocketed. Producers using natural gas had no option but to offer highly priced electricity to the common pool. And since this is a free market, producers using renewals followed suit taking advantage of the situation.

The result was staggering bills for consumers and record profits for renewals producers. Hence the government intervened, passed a limited time bill for taxing the super profits of producers and distributed the money back to the consumers (to all consumers based on their consumption and regardless of their income level). 

No producer dared complain. Sometimes, a long government arm makes sense….

PS I know the above because I have had clients in all the spectrum of the local energy industry. 

@mk4 thanks for dropping in with that Greek deep-dive.

What strikes me most is the sheer absurdity it exposes: renewables, which should be the stabilising force, end up profiting wildly from gas-driven price madness because of marginal pricing rules. Producers with near-zero marginal costs pocket the same sky-high rates as the gas plants setting the price. Consumers get hammered, governments scramble to claw money back and in the end everyone's playing catch-up to a crisis they didn't cause. I find situations like this so bizarre.

It also makes you wonder. If governments can tax super-profits and rebate consumers after the fact, why not redesign markets upfront so renewables actually dampen volatility instead of amplifying it? Until then, the push for personal independence (more panels, bigger batteries, smarter usage) feels less optional and more like basic survival strategy.

Again, really appreciate you sharing the Greek angle.

Posted by: @editor

↑

@mk4 thanks for dropping in with that Greek deep-dive.

What strikes me most is the sheer absurdity it exposes: renewables, which should be the stabilising force, end up profiting wildly from gas-driven price madness because of marginal pricing rules. Producers with near-zero marginal costs pocket the same sky-high rates as the gas plants setting the price. Consumers get hammered, governments scramble to claw money back and in the end everyone's playing catch-up to a crisis they didn't cause. I find situations like this so bizarre.

It also makes you wonder. If governments can tax super-profits and rebate consumers after the fact, why not redesign markets upfront so renewables actually dampen volatility instead of amplifying it? Until then, the push for personal independence (more panels, bigger batteries, smarter usage) feels less optional and more like basic survival strategy.

Again, really appreciate you sharing the Greek angle.

Unfortunately this tale of woe perfectly illustrates why removing the link to gas prices in the UK system won't result in cheaper electricity prices as long as a portion of UK electricity demand is still met from gas.

The current UK system sounds very similar to the Greek system, except that in the UK every bidder is automatically paid the highest price (normally that of the gas power stations) rather than going through the process above whereby cheaper supplier can bid up their price. The solution is to completely remove dependence on the most expensive sources of electricity so only the cheaper (renewable) sources remain.

Posted by: @editor

↑

 

It also makes you wonder. If governments can tax super-profits and rebate consumers after the fact, why not redesign markets upfront so renewables actually dampen volatility instead of amplifying it? 

The extra tax was a measure introduced under a sort of force majeure situation, it was not meant as a permanent measure. You cannot limit profits in a free market, else companies will not invest. Some 30 years ago electricity was a state monopoly (production, sales, DNO, TSO all functions under one company) - not any more. 
Bear in mind also that during spring and autumn (when RES production is high and demand is low), the TSO cuts off the system for some hours several large PV parks to preserve system stability. Less often during high summer because there is high demand from airconditioning units (which units of course only make the situation worse, but this is another discussion).

Unfortunately the interconnections we have with surrounding countries do not yet have the bandwidth required to support export of all the excess RES energy. 

And since we are all worried about oil and petrol prices, a new measure was just announced today valid till the end of June. Oil and petrol profits are capped to 5c/lt in wholesale and 12c/lt in retail in the local market, else hefty fines apply.