@jamesPa wrote: I propose we detach the UK and tow it to the Pacific Ocean…

Calling Major Dennis Bloodnock et al, here is a good little earner / scam for you … (Go-on, you know it makes sense)😉 Toodles.

@jamespa 

Posted by: @jamespa

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The solution is to move to where the conditions for cheap energy exist and reduce our population density 

I propose we detach the UK and tow it to the Pacific Ocean, whilst at the same time executing 99% of our population.

Clearly this is not going to happen!

Having sensible prices in the range of 13p to 18p per Kwh would solve a lot of issues in the UK, however as usual in this s**thole of a country, we have to pay a premium for bureaucracy and incompetence for what seems to be every major project undertaken, HS2 a case in point.

Posted by: @technogeek

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, we have to pay a premium for bureaucracy and incompetence

Do you have evidence that our level of bureaucracy/incompetence is worse than any other reasonably comparable country.  Perhaps it's just humans at work and the laws of physics.

That's a serious comment btw.  Its easy to criticise, much less easy to make the tough decisions with real world constraints.  So far as I can tell every country has some problems in the way it works.  For some reason people still find the UK an attractive place to come to or stay in which is somewhat at variance with your description.

As it happens I do agree that the cost of electricity could be lower.   Our previous government took the decision to load the transition costs onto electricity, not gas or general taxation, and our current government hasn't (yet?) changed that.  This thinking, it would seem in the interests of political expediency, further prolongs our dependence on despot states.  It's also bad for industries which have a heavy dependency on electricity.  However government has to make difficult choices and it's unlikely any of us will agree with them all.

Posted by: @batpred

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Posted by: @jeff

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In sync with the Nesta figures showing the escalating balancing costs when the wind farms have to curtail and the CfD top up paid to wind farms as they are more expensive than gas turbines on average.

It is only going to get worse as more wind turbines are added? 

Contracts like CfD are what matters most for price formation.. So the answer to your question is another question. Do the new contracts have to be similar to the previous?

 

The AR7 Cfd contracts are worse... They are locking in high index CfD rates for offshore wind for even longer than previously, and eye watering rates for floating offshore wind. AR7 will also result in even more wind farms away from where energy is consumed along with wind farms already signed off but not yet built. 

Interesting that some UK wind farms are already struggling as wind hasn't been as strong as expected so their income has been less than expected. 

Posted by: @jamespa

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Posted by: @technogeek

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, we have to pay a premium for bureaucracy and incompetence

Do you have evidence that our level of bureaucracy/incompetence is worse than any other reasonably comparable country.  Perhaps it's just humans at work and the laws of physics.

That's a serious comment btw.  Its easy to criticise, much less easy to make the tough decisions with real world constraints.  So far as I can tell every country has some problems in the way it works.  For some reason people still find the UK an attractive place to come to or stay in which is somewhat at variance with your description.

As it happens I do agree that the cost of electricity could be lower.   Our previous government took the decision to load the transition costs onto electricity, not gas or general taxation, and our current government hasn't (yet?) changed that.  This thinking, it would seem in the interests of political expediency, further prolongs our dependence on despot states.  It's also bad for industries which have a heavy dependency on electricity.  However government has to make difficult choices and it's unlikely any of us will agree with them all.

The government has two consultations out at the moment that will reduce the transition costs in the policy portion of our bills. 

The first is to change the inflation link on FiT contracts from RPI to CPI.

The second is to change the inflation link on ROCs from RPI to CPI. ROCs start to disappear from bills anyway from 2027 unless the government decide they have to be replaced to keep some older renewable sites viable... 

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/renewables-obligation-ro-scheme-indexation-changes

Both will reduce bills over time. 

The current government has also recently sought industry input on completely removing the ECO scheme from bills, leaving Ed to cover any costs out of his existing budget. So this may happen in the Budget in November.

There is also the outside possibility on vat being removed from electricity. 

Quite quickly the CfD payments, the Balancing costs, the Nuclear/AMR costs, long duration storage subsidies, and the network upgrades are all going to put pressure on bills whatever is done with policy costs. 

Posted by: @jamespa

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As it happens I do agree that the cost of electricity could be lower.   Our previous government took the decision to load the transition costs onto electricity, not gas or general taxation, and our current government hasn't (yet?) changed that.  

Was the article not commenting on the price of self sufficiency? Which seems odd, as I believe the UK is still part of the European electricity system and would be able to buy when the wind does not blow in the north sea. And simulations based on weather would surely show where there is likely to be excess electricity to plug those gaps?

Posted by: @jeff

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The AR7 Cfd contracts are worse... They are locking in high index CfD rates for offshore wind for even longer than previously, and eye watering rates for floating offshore wind. AR7 will also result in even more wind farms away from where energy is consumed along with wind farms already signed off but not yet built. 

Is the distance between those new farms and where the electricity would be consumed considering only UK locations?    

Probably worth reviewing the extent to which the article reflects the sources that it quotes. And this being a non peer reviewed article requires more attention.

Posted by: @batpred

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Posted by: @jeff

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The AR7 Cfd contracts are worse... They are locking in high index CfD rates for offshore wind for even longer than previously, and eye watering rates for floating offshore wind. AR7 will also result in even more wind farms away from where energy is consumed along with wind farms already signed off but not yet built. 

Is the distance between those new farms and where the electricity would be consumed considering only UK locations?    

Probably worth reviewing the extent to which the article reflects the sources that it quotes. And this being a non peer reviewed article requires more attention.

You're right that the article is in itself not peer reviewed. However, opinion pieces rarely are and the facts on which the author bases those opinions are entirely consistent and sound. Given his professional credentials advising government as well as his academic credentials, it is difficult to imagine someone better qualified to express opinions on these subjects than Professor Sir Dieter Helm.

This doesn't, of course, suggest that simply because of who he is he is automatically right. However, whilst challenging his interpretation is entirely valid, it'd take a braver man than me to suggest he's playing fast and loose with his data.

@jamespa

Posted by: @jamespa

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Do you have evidence that our level of bureaucracy/incompetence is worse than any other reasonably comparable country.  Perhaps it's just humans at work and the laws of physics.

That's a serious comment btw.  Its easy to criticise, much less easy to make the tough decisions with real world constraints.  So far as I can tell every country has some problems in the way it works.  For some reason people still find the UK an attractive place to come to or stay in which is somewhat at variance with your description.

The reason a lot of people are attracted to the UK is because of our non contributory welfare system and free health care. Only the other week an Iraqi man openly confessed on camera that nobody in Iraq can afford cancer care so he and his wife smuggled themselves over the channel so his wife could get tens of thousands of pounds of cancer treatment which in my opinion, she is not entitled to. However the Home Office were more concerned about the £600 taxi bills these people where running up to get to and from appointments. Just to put things into context, some of the cancer medications my wife administers is in the region of £2500 per injection and cancer treatments can be upward of £40k per person. All this is paid for by the UK tax payer!

I personally worked for various companies over the last 40 years and have many dealings with the public sector. As an example, I worked with a team of engineers to design, build and install a communications control system for a UK Police force.

The project requirements document was signed off by the customer, the system was tested against the requirements by the customer but at the end they decided it was not quite what they expected or wanted at a cost of £500k to the tax payer. So they spent another £250k of tax payers money to change it to what they wanted! Nobody got sacked and nobody was held accountable!

Another company I worked for sacked a female engineer because she persistently came to work drunk and could not do her job. Next we find out she managed to get a job with the local authority on a salary at the time of £45k per year. Still had the same problems but was being moved from one Dept to another because nobody knew what to do with her! All funded by the local tax payer!

These are just two examples I have experienced with the public sector so for give me if I have a very low opinion of the sector. Dieter Helm's article above, in my opinion and experience, is absolutely spot on!

Between visiting our relatives in 2019 and 2025, the Australian Authorities have manged to build a small town, housing estate and extend the railway line to service the area and north of the area in that time. How long will it take the UK to decide and start building the Oxford to Cambridge rail link I wonder? I have heard reports it could be 10 years from now before a spade even goes in the ground! We are a great nation of talkers and nothing else sadly.

Posted by: @technogeek

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These are just two examples I have experienced with the public sector so for give me if I have a very low opinion of the sector. Dieter Helm's article above, in my opinion and experience, is absolutely spot on!

I'm not disputing that our public sector could in principle be better, and I would suggest that applies to many large organisation.  ,But it's staffed by humans,  the problems you allude to have been around for decades, and other countries seem to have similar problems.  So my question is are we any worse and is it just a reflection of what happens in a large human organisation?

Posted by: @technogeek

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Between visiting our relatives in 2019 and 2025, the Australian Authorities have manged to build a small town, housing estate and extend the railway line to service the area and north of the area in that time. How long will it take the UK to decide and start building the Oxford to Cambridge rail link I wonder? I have heard reports it could be 10 years from now before a spade even goes in the ground! We are a great nation of talkers and nothing else sadly.

This is a direct result imho of our overcrowded island and democratic process.  In an overcrowded island someone is going to lose if you build anything and our democracy allows everyone to have a say.  This circle can't easily be squared so far as I can see without making some people seriously unhappy.

Posted by: @batpred

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Posted by: @jeff

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The AR7 Cfd contracts are worse... They are locking in high index CfD rates for offshore wind for even longer than previously, and eye watering rates for floating offshore wind. AR7 will also result in even more wind farms away from where energy is consumed along with wind farms already signed off but not yet built. 

Is the distance between those new farms and where the electricity would be consumed considering only UK locations?    

Probably worth reviewing the extent to which the article reflects the sources that it quotes. And this being a non peer reviewed article requires more attention.

 

I have looked at the sources and have followed him and others for years. 

The government have paid him in the past to conduct independent reviews. He papers are regularly used in the climate change committee and house of Lords, he speaks at government events.

He is pro the green agenda and renewables like me. 

He has consistently spoken about the decisions the UK has made and what the government are telling people, not the need to transition. 

I saw him at a government event earlier this year.

He is well respected in the sector and government. 

He is the most independent and informed speaker I have ever seen on the subject IMHO. 

Posted by: @jeff

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The government have paid him in the past to conduct independent reviews. He papers are regularly used in the climate change committee and house of Lords, he speaks at government events.

He is pro the green agenda and renewables like me. 

So he must have a good team helping him in this.. 😉 

Posted by: @jeff

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He is well respected in the sector and government. 

He is the most independent and informed speaker I have ever seen on the subject IMHO. 

Thank you for sharing. It has been a long term generational change and ideally everybody needs to be won over.