@batpred Didn’t feel like failure to me a couple a months ago, going at 350kmph between Shanghai and Beijing, it was like being in Bladerunner. Particularly compared to the 50 kmph commute in a stinky diesel, covered in gum and graffiti,  between Manchester and Liverpool. I did the same Shanghai journey 30 years ago, it was a good day and half in a hot and smoke filled sleeper. That’s what progress looks like if you have long term planning, vision and the will.

I was looking at an article today, talking about the huge uptick in aircon unit exports from China to the EU, in particularly France. They were using the belt and road rail network to move goods to France, delivery was months quicker than sea and seemingly not prohibitively expensive to impact cost of goods. All I want is a little vision for the direction of the country, nobody offers it as we spend all our resources on the old boomers rather than the young, it’s very selfish and foolish.

Posted by: @papahuhu

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 as we spend all our resources on the old boomers rather than the young, it’s very selfish and foolish.

I am an old boomer and wholeheartedly agree, although almost every time I say this to other old boomers they tell me I am mad. 

Half the benefits bill goes on pensions, and a fair proportion of the recipients don't need the money and complain about benefits scroungers!  I really got it in the neck a few weeks ago from someone who enjoys a fully indexed linked defined benefit pension (following a well paid career in the private sector) when I tried to counter their complaint about benefit scroungers with the observation that they were in receipt of benefits that, presumably, they didn't need!

The fundamental problem, which I point out to younger people I meet, is that the old boomers vote and the younger people don't.  This makes it very difficult for politicians to make a radical change, even if they want to (which many don't but some clearly do).  Just look at the fuss when it was proposed that the winter fuel allowance be means tested!

Er...feels like we have strayed a long way from the topic. 😎 

Posted by: @papahuhu

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All I want is a little vision for the direction of the country, nobody offers it as we spend all our resources on the old boomers rather than the young, it’s very selfish and foolish.

True that the we are not investing enough in the young.. On the pensions that retired people get and do not need, if they would be channeled to the young, all would be good. But if older people are mistrusting the young, threin lies the main problem. 

But we are straying off the main topic of predicting the electricity prices! 

Posted by: @old_scientist

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I can report that my effective export rate on Flux is averaging around 75% higher (~21p) than it was under SEG (12p). Octopus did calculate the whole period under Flux export rates despite taking 9 days to switch export over after switching my import.

My octopus agile export rate has minimum pay of 10p/kwh, including overnight (when I can buy at 3.5). Shame that the meter offsets consumption and production, but there's a new micro income stream..

Really cannot understand why they do not make a combined EV+ASHP tariff. 

Posted by: @batpred

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Really cannot understand why they do not make a combined EV+ASHP tariff. 

I agree, there is no clearly best/targeted tariff for fully electrified households with EV's, ASHP, solar and batteries.

Have you requested this to Octopus. I would suggest dropping Greg (and his team) an email. They say they read them. I think someone previously proposed a pricing structure for such a tariff, maybe in this thread.

Maybe you just need a bigger battery that will last the day in winter, but I know from our data that for us this would require ~38kWh of usable storage on the coldest of days with an EV tariff providing ~5h of cheap rate import, and that's assuming we could pull enough in 5h to fill 38kWh of batteries and charge any EVs. For us that would mean two Tesla PW3 expansion packs and we would just about be able to recharge in a 5h cheap rate window at 8kW charge rate (which would leave sufficient import capacity for a 7kW home charger). Note we do not currently have EVs so this is hypothetical.

At this point I would not invest serious amounts of cash on this model, as I do not think cheap overnight tariffs will be around forever, but equally that additional storage may be invaluable if daytime solar export falls off a cliff and Octopus are still willing to pay a premium for peak rate export (Flux) or demand balancing services (IOF).

Posted by: @batpred

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...

Really cannot understand why they do not make a combined EV+ASHP tariff. 

I think the answer to that is that they're kinda making it up as they go along. Most of Octopus' tariffs are experimental and they're learning fast about what works and what doesn't. As such, what @old_scientist suggests about emailing Octopus with a suggestion makes plenty of sense; if they're already prepared to experiment then they're likely open to listening to ideas. However, in order to make your suggestion really worth considering, you'd need to outline what you'd want the new tariff to achieve that can't be achieved with one of the current ToU tariffs. Whether that means offering a pricing structure as @old_scientist alludes to or just a summary of the current tariff shortcomings, that's difficult to answer, but I still suspect a bit of time and effort put in by you will be very well received by Octopus.

@old_scientist Yes, I have iondeed written to Greg on this very subject, I had an ‘encouraging’ reply from one of his assistants - and am hoping for good news one day. Regards, Toodles.

They do have a forum as well.

I never got anywhere asking them why batteries on wheels are magically on different to tariffs to batteries without wheels, or how they squared Go with disability discrimination laws. (iGo obviously is a different beast). They really do need an "iBattery" tariff and stuff but it's been pretty clear from the presentations they've given they've got no grand plan either and seem to recognize it's a mess.

Part of the problem inevitably will be complexity, the more features a tariff has the more people can find ways to exploit it, the more rules they add, the more complex the approaches to game it get and it becomes a vicious cycle.

Mind your our cabbies all seem to be on the drive pack still 8)

You only need to look at the last set of accounts for Octopus to see they lost money overall in the retail business and their heat pump business in the UK. In the past they have admitted they lost money on things like Octopus Go. They also had to beef up their capital buffer, and bad debt is increasing. The days of them chasing market share with very generous tarrif in the UK are over I suspect and won't ever return at the same levels we saw in the past.

The amount of large solar farms being approved, "balcony solar" etc I suspect will mean ever reduced export rates in years to come unless you can store excess in home batteries. Some areas of the country will be swamped with solar for part of the year. 

Be interesting to see how tariff evolve in the next couple of decade. 

@jeff Our solar panels may well be functioning still in the next couple of decades but whether I’ll still be here to look at the app every day is rather more debatable! 😉 Rewards, Toodles.

@toodles And whether app still works likewise 8)