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Electricity price predictions

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(@chandykris)
Reputable Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 203
 

@old_scientist We have a savings session today and I have signed up. Have set up the battery inverter to export to the grid at that time. Let's see how much we get in Octopoints. The batteries hardly seem to go below 90% these days, so better to export and top up with solar tomorrow.

Posted by: @old_scientist

they will also pay if you export more than you normally export.

 


This post was modified 4 weeks ago by ChandyKris

16 * 435 watts PV
13 kWh Growatt battery
1 EV - Mercedes EQB
6 kW Aira Heat Pump
Bosch Induction Hob
Pod Point Solo 3 charger


   
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(@old_scientist)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 502
 

@chandykris Yes, I saw there is a savings session tonight, at 8-9pm

They are 'paying' 137 Octoplus points = 17.125p, so not too bad.

Unfortunately, my baseline usage is 0.04kWh, so I have very limited scope for savings due to reduced usage.

As for battery export, I'm on Flux presently, so am getting 29.35p for export between 4-7pm, versus 10.2p off peak plus the 17.125p for the savings session, which is still less than during the 4-7pm peak. So on this occasion, I won't be force exporting at 8-9pm as my battery will already be empty having been exported between 4-7pm for a slightly higher rate (and the arbitrage rate is not high enough to warrant recharging for an hour between 7-8pm to export again at 8pm)

I'm really hoping they do a savings session between 6-7pm, as then I can double down on the 29.35p export rate and the savings session.

Hopefully @toodles is all over this and can dump their battery 8-9pm for 12p SEG + 17.125p SS, and then recharge again during the Cosy cheap rate period at 10pm. Perfect 🙂


This post was modified 4 weeks ago 2 times by Old_Scientist

Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
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(@chandykris)
Reputable Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 203
 

@old_scientist Same here, we don't touch the grid after 5:30 am, but glad to help the grid when it needs and get compensated for the same. And this savings session doesn't interfere with the halftime during the WC quarterfinals as well when definitely few cups of drinks would be brewed!

 


16 * 435 watts PV
13 kWh Growatt battery
1 EV - Mercedes EQB
6 kW Aira Heat Pump
Bosch Induction Hob
Pod Point Solo 3 charger


   
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1
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bontwoody
(@bontwoody)
Noble Member Contributor
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 1055
 

So now that I have just about managed to get full control over my battery with Home Assistant, I had the invite to join Octopus Charge Pack 🙂 I switched it on last night and it was quite active with multiple charges and discharges. One thing I noted was that it didnt fully charge my battery in the cheap rate slot, which theoretically will reduce my export payments next day if it isnt compensated for. Will be interesting to see what sort of payment I get at the end of the month!

 

image

House-3 bed partial stone bungalow, 5kW Samsung Gen 6 ASHP (Self install)
6.9 kWp of PV
10kWh DC coupled battery
Blog: https://thegreeningofrosecottage.weebly.com/
Heatpump Stats: http://heatpumpmonitor.org/system/view?id=60


   
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bontwoody
(@bontwoody)
Noble Member Contributor
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 1055
 

A little more info: The Charge pack tariff seems to have emptied my battery every night, sometimes to a lower SOC than I would ideally like. My understanding was that my batteries would be drawn on only a few times a month, and that I could select my own upper and lower desired SOC, but this doesnt seem to be the case. Ive reset my lowest SOC to 20%, so will check if this is changed overnight. Im also going to schedule a battery charge before the cheap rate period finishes.

 

image

House-3 bed partial stone bungalow, 5kW Samsung Gen 6 ASHP (Self install)
6.9 kWp of PV
10kWh DC coupled battery
Blog: https://thegreeningofrosecottage.weebly.com/
Heatpump Stats: http://heatpumpmonitor.org/system/view?id=60


   
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(@old_scientist)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 502
 

What time are they discharging - during the peak to support the grid, or later to presumably create space to absorb some of the following day's excess solar generation?

How (much) are you being compensated for this?

One of the reasons I prefer tariffs like Flux (or IOF) is you know exactly how much you will be paid for export and how much you'll pay for import, so you can make a reasonable monthly calculation. Vague promises of so many days per week on average for which you'll be compensated make that harder to calculate.

I'm all for tariffs that encourage battery users to operate their battery in a way that benefits the grid, not just them - exporting at peak times, recharging from excess solar during the middle of the day. It's great that you are able to provide some insight how the Charge Pack is working in practice.


Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
ReplyQuote
bontwoody
(@bontwoody)
Noble Member Contributor
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 1055
 

@old_scientist Its hard to know whats going on in their minds 🙂 There is a minimum £12 per month compensation but asking chatGPT it reckoned a good month could be as much as £30 with my configuration. I just need to weigh that against any increased degradation of my battery.


House-3 bed partial stone bungalow, 5kW Samsung Gen 6 ASHP (Self install)
6.9 kWp of PV
10kWh DC coupled battery
Blog: https://thegreeningofrosecottage.weebly.com/
Heatpump Stats: http://heatpumpmonitor.org/system/view?id=60


   
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Toodles
(@toodles)
Famed Member Contributor
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 2903
 

@bontwoody I am waiting for OE to send me news that Powerwalls are now compatible. Regards, Toodles.


Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
Noble Member Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 644
 

There are quite a few news articles around what Andy Burnham's comment about energy bill support will actually mean in practice on tariffs. Many of the articles have quoted some of the ideas from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.  Here is the original JRF article. 

https://www.jrf.org.uk/cost-of-living/an-affordable-energy-guarantee

Be interesting to see what actually is launched for consumers and businesses and how quickly. UK gas prices are obvious up again today with the escalation in the Middle East. 

Screenshot 20260713 163055 Chrome


   
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(@old_scientist)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 502
 

Posted by: @bontwoody

@old_scientist Its hard to know whats going on in their minds 🙂 There is a minimum £12 per month compensation but asking chatGPT it reckoned a good month could be as much as £30 with my configuration. I just need to weigh that against any increased degradation of my battery.

@bontwoody To put that in context, Tim and Kat's solar tariff optimiser estimates Flux (or IOF) to be worth, on average, an additional £60 per month for me over a straight self consumption model where I import nothing, consume my own solar and export excess at 12p SEG. I'm currently seeing an additional £2.25/day net income during this exceptionally sunny period, so the £2/day average looks reasonable.

Personally, an additional £60 per month is worth it to me to fully cycle the battery once daily. After all, that is what the battery is intended to do. I cycle it twice daily in winter on Cosy.

I guess you could view it in the context of how much do I save/earn per cycle to know whether it is financially worth cycling it? In winter (the main purpose for purchasing the battery), it saves me around 7p/kWh, the difference between the Cosy cheap rate and the average price of import I achieved on Cosy before I bought the battery, so one cycle saves me just under £1. In that context, earning an extra £2 per cycle on Flux looks exceptional value.

When I was just self consuming (before Flux was reinstated), the battery rarely dropped below 70% and often spent long periods sat at 100% which I understand also isn't good for battery life, so I see no issue with cycling once per day.

 


Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
👍
1
ReplyQuote
bontwoody
(@bontwoody)
Noble Member Contributor
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 1055
 

@old_scientist I think £60 would clearly be worth doing but I dont think flux would work for my because of my EV. Roughly if i assume ill get £20 a month on average. Thats £240 per year. A new battery module is £2000 so if there is significant degredation then its probably not worth it. Time will tell 😁


House-3 bed partial stone bungalow, 5kW Samsung Gen 6 ASHP (Self install)
6.9 kWp of PV
10kWh DC coupled battery
Blog: https://thegreeningofrosecottage.weebly.com/
Heatpump Stats: http://heatpumpmonitor.org/system/view?id=60


   
👍
1
ReplyQuote
(@chandykris)
Reputable Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 203
 

Thanks @old_scientist, that's good to know. Our battery often stays above 90% during the summer months unless we run the dishwasher late in the evening. So, it seems it's better to discharge some of the energy stored to bring the SOC down and let it charge from excess solar the next day. Maybe, we should switch to Octopus Prime Outgoing when it's made available.

Posted by: @old_scientist

often spent long periods sat at 100% which I understand also isn't good for battery life,

 


16 * 435 watts PV
13 kWh Growatt battery
1 EV - Mercedes EQB
6 kW Aira Heat Pump
Bosch Induction Hob
Pod Point Solo 3 charger


   
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