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Electricity price predictions

 
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Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring, Electrics & Providers
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Toodles
 Toodles
(@toodles)
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17/02/2026 4:09 pm  

I’ve just received a note from Octopus Energy concerning the export tariff ‘Outgoing’ the rate is being reduced from 15 pence to 12 pence per kWh. as from March 1st. Oh well, it was good while it lasted. Toodles.


Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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 Old_Scientist
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17/02/2026 4:39 pm  

Posted by: @toodles
↑

I’ve just received a note from Octopus Energy concerning the export tariff ‘Outgoing’ the rate is being reduced from 15 pence to 12 pence per kWh. as from March 1st. Oh well, it was good while it lasted. Toodles.

Me too. Another reason to consider IOF in summer, now effectively paying double SEG rates for export? I've not seen anything (yet) about IOF rates changing.

The drop in SEG rates has little impact Oct-March where we can consume all we generate, and then switch to IOF for Apr-Sept.

Looking at the wider picture, I actually expected a bigger drop and expect rates to fall further as more and more solar is brought on to the grid.

 


This post was modified 2 months ago 2 times by Old_Scientist

Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
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Toodles
 Toodles
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17/02/2026 5:07 pm  

@old_scientist Still waiting to hear from OE about IOF’s alorithm that allowed the battery to start recharging during peak rate/demand time. I hope they will get this sorted in time for my lower level demand / higher solar output period. Toodles.


Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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Toodles
 Toodles
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17/02/2026 5:23 pm  

@old_scientist I gather it has happened in ‘Stralia already and I believe some parts of USA too. Toodles.


Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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 ChandyKris
(@chandykris)
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17/02/2026 5:24 pm  

I received this too. I was expecting this to be a lot worse and more like 8 pence. So, at this 12 p rate, it might be still worth charging the batteries during off-peak times and just let it run like last year. Had this been any lower to like 8 p, I would have looked at charging the battery only from solar and also running the heat pump during the day time when solar panels are producing energy.

The fact that they are reducing from March, maybe they won't reduce again this summer.


16 * 435 watts PV
13 kWh Growatt battery
1 EV - Mercedes EQB
6 kW Aira Heat Pump
Bosch Induction Hob
Pod Point Solo 3 charger


   
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Toodles
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17/02/2026 5:31 pm  

@chandykris I get the impression that the decision was taken very reluctantly and delayed as long as the pain was bearable (financially that is). Toodles.


Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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JamesPa
 JamesPa
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17/02/2026 6:05 pm  

I wonder what the import rates are going to do after March when the levies shift.  The only information at present seems to be the of quoted 'average household' saving £150.  Presumably that means that an all electric household will save more, but we will see.

I get the impression all the suppliers are slowly tightening ToU benefits.  I guess it may eventually end up that all the best rates will require some form of control by the supplier.


4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.


   
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Toodles
 Toodles
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17/02/2026 6:07 pm  

@jamespa I have been wondering about this too. Toodles.


Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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 ChandyKris
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17/02/2026 6:10 pm  

@toodles Looks like it, and more reasons why I want to stay with Octopus.


16 * 435 watts PV
13 kWh Growatt battery
1 EV - Mercedes EQB
6 kW Aira Heat Pump
Bosch Induction Hob
Pod Point Solo 3 charger


   
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 Old_Scientist
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17/02/2026 6:10 pm  

Yes, I'm guessing it was kind of easy (less costly) for them to delay until 1st March as I imagine most people are not exporting any significant amounts of solar over winter - I know we have had no issues self-consuming everything we generate up until this point.

Posted by: @toodles
↑

@old_scientist Still waiting to hear from OE about IOF’s alorithm that allowed the battery to start recharging during peak rate/demand time. I hope they will get this sorted in time for my lower level demand / higher solar output period. Toodles.

Yes, I've seen others note this same concern.

As a workaround, you can simply disable grid charging as you approach the end of the peak rate period and the batteries become empty. The other thing I was doing last year was reducing my backup reserve from 20% down to 5% or 10% at the end of the peak rate export period to squeeze a little more from the battery and prevent importing for house load before 7pm to get the battery to 'last' and stay exporting right through to 7pm.

However, other than conversion losses, it's not actually costing anything if you 'over export' at 30p and then need to reimport a little at 30p to compensate (or maybe I've misunderstood?). Overall I was very happy with the way Octopus managed my battery given how well I was compensated, and any niggles were relatively minor (things like occasional recharging from the grid overnight which may have been beneficial to the grid but I would have preferred to fill up from excess solar during the day to avoid the AC to DC conversion losses)

My plan is to switch back to IOF around end of March / beginning of April (as soon as the 2 week forecast looks favourable in that time period), so will let you know how it's working out.

 


This post was modified 2 months ago by Old_Scientist

Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
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 SKD
(@skd)
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Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 63
17/02/2026 6:20 pm  

Posted by: @jamespa
↑

I wonder what the import rates are going to do after March when the levies shift.  The only information at present seems to be the of quoted 'average household' saving £150.  Presumably that means that an all electric household will save more, but we will see.

I get the impression all the suppliers are slowly tightening ToU benefits.  I guess it may eventually end up that all the best rates will require some form of control by the supplier.

Octopus told me that the April discount will be applied to the peak rate for IOG. Night tariff won't be affected.

 


Mitsubishi Ecodan 11.2kW R32 ASHP; Ecodan DHW cylinder; UFH+rads
20x430W Jinko TOPCON Tiger Neo solar; Luxpower 6+4kW hybrid inverter; 20kWh Hanchu ESS LFP battery storage
PHEV; Zappi charger
1997 stone detached house with updated insulation. 140sqm, maintained at 20-22degC 24/7


   
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Toodles
 Toodles
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17/02/2026 6:32 pm  

@chandykris Yes, indeed, I feel that Greg Jackson is a pretty good egg. Toodles.


Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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