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Electricity price predictions

 
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Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring & Providers
Last Post by Batpred 4 hours ago
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 ChandyKris
(@chandykris)
Estimable Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 119
06/03/2026 8:53 am  

@batpred You are correct, for new customers. If I switch to Flux in April, when I want to switch back to Go in October, the rates I get might be different and even higher than 9.5 p.

Not a big deal, but as Outgoing Octopus has dropped to 12 p, and given that our South West facing array produces good chunk from 4 pm to 7 pm, thought moving to Flux is probably a good move. But, if that means we would have to pay higher rates when the HP is running whole day and EV needs more charging due to lower efficiency and pre entry climate control, then probably this move for summer is not worth it. I might do some modelling to see at what rates would it tip over the balance. At least Octopus makes such analysis easy by letting you download half-hourly consumption and export data.


16 * 435 watts PV
13 kWh Growatt battery
1 EV - Mercedes EQB
6 kW Aira Heat Pump


   
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Batpred
 Batpred
(@batpred)
Prominent Member Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 742
06/03/2026 11:15 am  

@chandykris 

Thanks for sharing your thinking. It made me think how many factors need to be considered to optimise the tariffs when you have so much renewable technology..


8kW Solis S6-EH1P8K-L-PLUS hybrid inverter; G99: 8kw export; 16kWh Seplos Fogstar battery; Ohme Home Pro EV charger; 100Amp head, HA lab on mini PC


   
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Batpred
 Batpred
(@batpred)
Prominent Member Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 742
06/03/2026 11:54 am  

Posted by: @jamespa
↑

Electricity retailers offer fixed price deals.  By agreeing the purchase price in advance they can manage the risks.  Electricity generators probably buy fuel in advance as well (obviously not renewables).  All this trading creates a market for data centres.

I assumed you were joking here. 

Hence my joke about a data centre in planning consultation stage: the backup diesel generators are so large that they led some people to start questioning whether they would just be used in regular tests. 

Clearly industrial electricity prices have been rising very significantly in the UK, according to DESNZ:

image

Could we say that the UK market protects consumers better than in the US, where domestic prices rose by 6% in 2025?

 


8kW Solis S6-EH1P8K-L-PLUS hybrid inverter; G99: 8kw export; 16kWh Seplos Fogstar battery; Ohme Home Pro EV charger; 100Amp head, HA lab on mini PC


   
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