For minimal disruption and systems which are more affordable, and so likely to be more sellable, I wonder if there needs to be more pragmatism and allow options like hybrid heat pumps, using the kind of add-on heat-pump systems that are used in the Netherlands. 

If you look at the installation details for these, they're pitched as essentially leaving the existing heating and hot water system untouched, installing a small indoor unit next to the boiler and tying it into the central heating flow and return and boiler controls, installing the outdoor unit and some small-bore refrigerant plumbing between the two. Typically these cut gas usage in the 50-80% range, depending on the property, lifestyle etc for what seems minimum disruption and with a much quicker install.

They're not perfect, there's still some gas usage, but they seem a more viable approach to fit out millions of homes than the current heat-pump approach. 

There may be times when that’s necessary, @temperature_gradient, but it won’t get the BUS grant and so won’t be cheaper to the customer. I also think, purely subjectively, that the need for hybrid systems is far lower than most boiler installers would think or lead us to believe.

A point worth considering, though.

Posted by: @majordennisbloodnok

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I also think, purely subjectively, that the need for hybrid systems is far lower than most boiler installers would think or lead us to believe.

A point worth considering, though.

Also it embeds a complex system, almost taking the homeowner down a blind alley.

I must admit to toying with a hybrid, but then coming to my senses.  its just mad to maintain two systems for the same job imho.

I have almost the same view of some hybrid cars.  The ones where the traction is electric and there is a petrol generator I can understand, this has existed in the rail industry for decades.  At least it simplifies the drive train. However some hybrids appear to have the full fossil drive train with an electric motor bolted onto the gearbox.  Really?

Posted by: @jamespa

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However some hybrids appear to have the full fossil drive train with an electric motor bolted onto the gearbox.  Really?

Hoi, hands off my Toyota hybrid. It is a very slick bit of engineering. An Atkinson cycle ICE (now that is a blast from the early days of combustion technology)  and small battery. Traction can be provided by the ICE or the battery or both in varying degrees, the traction battery is charged by the ICE or regeneration. The end result, retire the dirty diesel, still get 60mpg, and no range anxiety in an area not served well by petrol stations let alone charge points. Charge an EV at home? Aye right. No smart meter signal, so no fancy shmancy off peak EV tariffs.  Come back to me when someone builds an affordable EV with a 400 mile range, in the dark, cold, snowy hill roads of a Scottish winter. 

Admittedly I don't get the plugin hybrid which even with their 30/40 mile battery range means lugging two drive trains around. Self charging hybrids make more sense to me.

Posted by: @abernyte

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Hoi, hands off my Toyota hybrid. It is a very slick bit of engineering. 

...

Admittedly I don't get the plugin hybrid which even with their 30/40 mile battery range means lugging two drive trains around. Self charging hybrids make more sense to me.

The Toyota plugin hybrids are very similar to their regular hybrids, same design of drive train but with slightly more powerful motors, and the hybrid battery is larger to provide the extra EV range. There isn't 2 drive trains. It's like a regular hybrid, but with 30 miles electric range when you plugin.

Posted by: @abernyte

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Hoi, hands off my Toyota hybrid. It is a very slick bit of engineering

Alright, I concede that the Toyotas are, as you say a very slick piece of engineering, maybe its a case of original and best.  Some others seem cruder so far as I can tell.

Posted by: @abernyte

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The end result, retire the dirty diesel, still get 60mpg

Thats 10p/mile for fuel, as opposed to less than 2p per mile that I pay.  As an added as a bonus I almost never have to visit a petrol station!

Obviously the practicality of electric cars is currently a bit dependent on use pattern, but my Niro cost 20K (bought a little over 3 years old) and does 300 miles real world in summer, 240-250miles in the depths of winter and 280 miles in the shoulder seasons.  Range anxiety disappears after a while because you know what it will do, trust it to do it and plan accordingly on the occasions that planning is necessary.  I dont even bother with a 'proper' charger, just the granny charger that came with the car + an EV rated 13A socket. 

'We learn from history that we do not learn from history.'
I wonder if someone from marketing or a focus group came up with ZeroDisrup!
You only have to join a few Facebook groups and ask for new pictures of new installations to see some of the issues.
One of the things I am trying to do with TICA is to publish a White Paper as a basis to issue a "call to action" to encourage the Government to support improved thermal insulation. If this is of interest, please message me for a draft copy.

Zero Disrupt could be best innovation yet, & hope for the A2W sector.: We need to install approx 30m heat pumps, the Gov unlikely to fund £200Billion of BUS grant , so getting it to work cheaply with existing installs is critical. Especially changing the HW cylinder, for a cost of £2k to save only £50 a year ( Off peak £20) with a better HW cop is a luxury we can not afford..( & for combi we need a monoblock with built in cylinder) ... Yes an small elite of highly trained installers in needed that do 6 day installs is needed & will make a good living from the complex middle class installs.
But for most people we need installers that serve the broken boiler market . .HG .ZD online quote for my normal terrace house is appox £10k (7.5+2.5) including " installing one new radiator .. £1000 labour" ! Perhaps the whole A2W is luxury wrong turn for the masses ? gov should be funding A2A & drafting the soldiers as helpers for f-gas installers... I would say A2W is actually better than A2A IF the 2040 replacement monoblock was guaranteed to be a direct swap , same base same pipes, installed as easy as new washing machine .

Is the ZD is a bit of a marketing ploy? has the it been pitched high to make the upgrades seem good value & the customer just gets back to a normal HG quote ...

Let' start with first thing first, HG is a startup, they are creating a software platform with the aim to sell it and make money for themselves and the investors. That doesn't mean they are bad, it is quite opposite, UK badly need something to fix its "plumbing industry", if someone makes money during the process, I am all up for that!

HeatGeek ZeroDisrupt is an "AI software platform", because nowadays "AI" in the name increases company evaluation few billion times. Have they trained an AI on a few thousands installs, dataset is too small, and the feedback loop might been not great as if I understand correctly ,not all HG installers have real time access to the customers system performance, neither HG themselves. Can you create a good software just on data they have allowing better heat-loss calculation, volume, correct rads size. The answer is definitely YES. And seeing HG doing survey I am sure they have absolutely miles ahead leading software. So ZD is more marketing and product term rather than massive change how HG installers are doing things, this is why they struggled to even explain that on the podcast. Basically ZD is the next version of their software, like iPhone 12 is replacing iPhone 11. Now it allows to accommodate more installs, by tweaking target parameters, do you want to replace HW cylinder or not, are you happy with 50C design vs 40 or 35C in terms of savings.

What they are aiming at: we are replacing 1.7 million gas boilers every year and installing ~60,000 heat pumps. This is not a progress of adoption, economy of scale can't kick in, prices are high, ZD aims to those who are replacing the boiler, can we make it more comparable as a price? I have a friend, his system boiler died, I suggested to check options with HP install, he tried quote online from his energy provider, saw £10k+ and went for another boiler. I am confident that a HP will work fine in his house as it is, not 500% but with SCOP 3.5+, so his bill would be about the same or a bit less, the install might've been cheaper than boiler, and one more house moved to the HP. If he went for a survey with a good installer he would've seen the benefit. 

As a summary HG ZD is just a tool, it is best on the market, it is superseded their previous version of software, website quotes are an attempt to bring people in, or at least consider the option, instead of opting for another boiler.

I personally went through HG experience myself, so this is the result:

I have 3 bed + extension semi from 1960x, the house had EPC D, with the heat demand according to EPC 13,066kWh + 2,200kWh for hot water. HG ZD (the old one had similar numbers also) estimated 7kW heat loss, 10kW Vaillant + new cylinder (coming from combi) + 2 rads change (£2k in the quote) with the total after grant ~£4k, 330% guarantee. 

I know my real heat loss numbers (3.3kW), my boiler runs at sub 45C flow with 10l/m flows (pump at lowest with dt10, because it is gas, stage 2 make no difference, just dt goes to 5), all rads are balanced (all TRV's fully open or removed) and house kept at 21C. my annual gas consumption ~6100kWh, so I know I do not need rads changed, neither that big heat pump, so I booked the survey expecting the quote go down to almost £2k.

the survey was good, the installer was super professional, as I mentioned  software I think is a state of the art. Results: ~4.5kW heat loss calc (I've sent to the installer all my monitoring data on 30 mins gas consumption, inside/outside temps at the times, etc), 5kW Vaillant HP, new cylinder, no rads change - £7,500k after the grant with 310% efficiency guarantee 50C design flow, the install that can't be any more less "Disruptive". £2k of "Integration" was added to the quote. I've asked why so expensive, the answer was it is the normal price of an HP install. 

I didn't go with the install, my annual gas bill is £450,and  £7,500 is 15 years worth of heating for me. Even If I need to replace boiler I will go to another boiler for that price. my example is not a rule, it just one case, and I think it is more even exception, possibly the installer just didn't want to do the job, he would rather do another job with rads change where they can make more money.

Posted by: @ksim

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the survey was good, the installer was super professional, as I mentioned  software I think is a state of the art. Results: ~4.5kW heat loss calc (I've sent to the installer all my monitoring data on 30 mins gas consumption, inside/outside temps at the times, etc), 5kW Vaillant HP, new cylinder, no rads change - £7,500k after the grant with 310% efficiency guarantee 50C design flow, the install that can't be any more less "Disruptive". £2k of "Integration" was added to the quote. I've asked why so expensive, the answer was it is the normal price of an HP install. 

I didn't go with the install, my annual gas bill is £450,and  £7,500 is 15 years worth of heating for me. Even If I need to replace boiler I will go to another boiler for that price. my example is not a rule, it just one case, and I think it is more even exception, possibly the installer just didn't want to do the job, he would rather do another job with rads change where they can make more money.

Thanks for sharing, it could be the installer is after people keener on green goals and interested in swapping rads. I am pretty sure you can get a more reasonable cost with octopus, as they seem to have some of that scale already. I think even EDF quoted me 3 or 4k (on top of BUS) for that brand. 

Posted by: @batpred

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with octopus,

Octopus won't not touch my house because of microbore, company policy, the survey guy said, because the loss is low microbore is not a problem, but Octopus doesn't install on microbore as the rule.