I too am surprised by the mixed messaging. Frankly I would prefer ZeroDisappointment to ZeroDisrupt.

I'm all for the application of AI, and technology such as LiDAR for improving heat loss calculations etc., but this should be as a sanity check to diligent, careful, and detailed design and excellent workmanship.

To be fair they do emphasise that any estimate on their website would need to be followed up by a site visit/appraisal to carry out a proper design and firm up costs.

Personally, I would be more reassured by the promise of meticulous and detailed design, work being carried out by experienced and highly trained heat pump installers who take pride in every aspect of their work.

I've invested a good deal of time researching and informing myself about renewable heating technology and I want my installer to explain why there NEEDS to be some disruption - that they need to rip out that unnecessary water pump and mixing valve; simplify and de-zone the UFH, resize some of the radiators, and why a little re-plastering absolutely outweighs the disadvantages of locating the heat pump far away from the hot water cylinder.

By all means disrupt the market through tech; but leave a little disruption for the customer - better that now than disappointment down the line!

Enjoying the book BTW Mars, good job!

Posted by: @editor

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When I first came across Heat Geek, I was always under the impression (based on their branding, positioning and messaging) that it stood on a platform of quality. Take your time. Do the calculations properly. Understand the property, the heat loss, the emitters. Design a system that works, that lasts, that delivers comfort and efficiency for decades.

That philosophy cut through a sector that was plagued by bodged installs, incorrectly sized units and undersized radiators, leaving homeowners with cold rooms, high running costs and a sense of disillusionment. In many ways, Heat Geek helped professionalise an industry that desperately needed it. They raised expectations. They told us that quality mattered more than speed. That was my perception.

Which is why their latest initiative, ZeroDisrupt, has left me scratching my head.

According to their own launch announcement, this is an AI-powered design system that can make heat pump installs up to 60% cheaper, 50% faster and with far less disruption. To homeowners weary of quotes in the £12,000-£15,000 range (even after the Boiler Upgrade Scheme), it must sound like manna from heaven. Faster, cheaper, less disruptive... who wouldn’t want that?

But my question is simple: have we not already seen how this story ends time and time again in the very recent past? We know exactly what happens when you throw heat pumps into homes with minimal radiator upgrades, with flow temperatures cranked up to compensate, with pipework that can’t cope and emitters that can’t deliver. It works beautifully on paper. The numbers look fine. The sales pitch is compelling. But the reality? Cold rooms, spiralling electricity bills, SCOPs that collapse under real-world use and homeowners who regret ever making the switch.

That, in turn, fuels the anti-heat pump narrative and sets back public confidence.

My concern with ZeroDisrupt is that “less disruption” often translates to no radiator upgrades, no system improvements and designs that lean on higher flow temperatures to make things “work”. That’s a guaranteed route to higher electricity bills. With tariffs unlikely to fall significantly any time soon, what looks like a cheaper install upfront can quickly become a financial haemorrhage... hundreds, even thousands of pounds a year lost to inefficiency.

I don't see that as innovation. That’s shifting the cost burden from the installer to the homeowner. It's a creative way to move the bill from capex to opex.

The real danger here is that the market is being seduced by volume (and perhaps by the expectations of shareholders). Octopus, British Gas and Aira are already throwing thousands of heat pumps into homes, often at a loss. Their installation arms are haemorrhaging tens of millions of pounds, but because Octopus and British Gas sell energy, they can claw it back later. Aira, Heat Geek and others cannot.

So what happens next? To survive, the model must shift toward scale with more installs, done faster, for thinner margins. It becomes a numbers game. And we all know who loses in that scenario: the homeowner. They’re left with a “cheap” system that’s supposed to last twenty years but ends up inefficient, underperforming and ultimately a liability.

I don’t claim to fully understand the workings of the AI modelling behind ZeroDisrupt. According to Heat Geek’s own video, it has been “trained” on thousands of installs. But no matter how clever the algorithm, AI cannot model the chaos of British housing stock. It cannot know what’s hidden behind the walls of a Victorian terrace, how poorly insulated an Edwardian semi might be or what decades-old cowboy pipework lies beneath floorboards. British homes are messy, idiosyncratic and unpredictable. There are too many variables.

AI can assist a designer. It cannot replace one.

Even among Heat Geek’s own elite installer network, unease is growing. Several have told me privately they’re uncomfortable with the direction of travel. They joined Heat Geek because of its founding ethos: slow down, design carefully, educate the homeowner, deliver systems that actually work as efficiently as they can. Now they feel the message has flipped on its head. SME installers are already operating on wafer-thin margins.

And let’s not gloss over the language now being thrown around. “ZeroDisrupt might work on smaller homes,” I’ve been told by an installer. Might. That is not a word any homeowner wants to hear when committing thousands of pounds to the system that will heat their family home for decades. Might is not acceptable. It must be must.

Heat pumps are not disposable tech, and they are fundamentally not cheap. They are the beating heart of a home’s heating system... something expected to perform reliably for 15 to 20 years. When the industry starts using words like might, maybe and probably, what it’s really saying is we’re not sure. And that’s truly terrifying. Experimenting on people's homes that are paying a lot of money for the privilege is not OK!

This is where I fear the industry is heading for a cliff. Yes, we need to reduce costs and make heat pumps more accessible. But the obsession with “speed” and “minimal disruption” risks repeating the very mistakes that has poisoned the market already with ECO4 installs thrown in for good measure. Homeowners don’t need a £5,000 install that bleeds them dry on bills. They need a £10,000 system that works: properly, consistently, efficiently.

Cutting corners to meet a price point is not innovation. It’s rebranding the race to the bottom. 

Homeowners need certainty, not might.

They need quality, not speed.

And they need trust, not condescension.

Because if we fail them again (if we let shortcuts and cost-cutting dictate the future) the heat pump industry won’t just stumble. It’ll fall flat on its face. And that would be tragic.

 

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It a ridiculous approach, impossible to have zero disrupt, that means as you say nothing is upgraded, just chuck in another poorly working heat pump.  It'll never be anything like zero disrupt unless we all fit R290 units set on highest setting. Another disaster waiting to happen.

The A2W industry is what it is with massive disruption to the homeowner. Went to a 'sort it out service' last week the lady is 82 and said there were 8 guys in for two days making so much noise and mess she wish she'd never been talked into it, now of course its costing more than her oil boiler did. (a little less now we've set up the controller)