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Electricity price predictions

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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
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Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 558
 

Posted by: @jamespa

Posted by: @jeff

It says the infra and boilers are ready in the pilot. The infra has been built and homes are being connected after Xmas. Safety reviews have been passed. The pilot includes offshore wind producing hydrogen. 

Hydrogen boilers for domestic use are entirely a fossil fuel industry con so far as I can understand it.  To produce green (ie carbon free) hydrogen you need to use electrolysis (ie electricity) with a conversion efficiency of about 70%.  If you used the same electricity to power a heat pump you have a conversion efficiency of 300%.  It simply doesn't make sense for domestic heating so far as I can see.

That's not to say hydrogen doesn't have a place, in energy storage and for applications where you need a very high energy density and high temperature applications, but never for domestic heating so far as I can see.

If someone can explain the economics differently Im prepared to change my mind.

 

 

 

I have an inherent distrust of all financial models related to energy in the UK right now 😂 Especially the spin put on the figures, and also the way we are being drip fed extra costs onto bills. I don't trust anyone😂

I don't know if the H100 pilot is planning to release any models. 

IMHO the existing gas network operators would need to put their money where there mouth was and publish some standing charge and unit rates for hydrogen that they could commit to, with whatever caveats were needed. 

Then there could be an informed debate. I suspect any debate would not just be about cost but also about what was deliverable, risks etc. 

Then the government could at least make an informed decision next year, whether we agree with it or not is another matter. 

I struggle with the idea of domestic hydrogen, but would like more information next year. 

 

 



   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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Posted by: @jamespa

The fact that the Gateshead trial is adding just 2% Hydrogen seems like yet another confirmation (as if one were needed). 

Interestingly, if you search online for this Gateshead Trial, the percentage of hydrogen being added can vary widely from one report to another.

Google AI had it as high as 20% when I looked 10-mins ago!

 

To help others understand the significance of what James and I are looking at:

The Gas Act requires that the minimum Calorific Value (CV) of the domestic gas supply is 37MJ/m³

The usual CV is around 39MJ/m³ and is printed on your gas bill each month

The CV of hydrogen is 12MJ/m³

 

To deliver the same amount of energy (Joules) into a property, a hydrogen-only gas supply would need to operate at more than three-times the existing pressure.
Every gas meter in that area would need to be replaced, as would the nozzles on all gas cookers, boilers and fires... unless they were already "hydrogen ready".


This post was modified 3 weeks ago by Transparent

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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(@jamespa)
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Posted by: @transparent

Every gas meter in that area would need to be replaced, as would the nozzles on all gas cookers, boilers and fires... unless they were already "hydrogen ready".

In fairness we did something like that in the 1970s when we moved from coal gas to North Sea gas.

I have hear it said that, because hydrogen is so small, materials used for gas pipes may be porous.  I dont know if thats true, but until the cost issue is explained I dont really care.

 

Posted by: @jeff

IMHO the existing gas network operators would need to put their money where there mouth was and publish some standing charge and unit rates for hydrogen that they could commit to, with whatever caveats were needed.

Probably too many imponderables to do that. 

To my mind they just tell us how much electrical energy is needed to generate a given amount energy yield from hydrogen.  And then explain how they are going to deal with the 4:1 ratio relative to using the same amount of electrical energy to power a heat pump.  If they can explain this away moderately convincingly then great, we just need to solve the matters @transparent refers to above. 

Otherwise admit that hydrogen is for applications other than domestic heating and stop wasting our time and money!

 


This post was modified 3 weeks ago 2 times by JamesPa

4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.


   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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Posted by: @jeff

Then the government could at least make an informed decision next year, whether we agree with it or not is another matter. 

Hmmm. It should be NESO making the informed decision, of course.

Equally, why was it Ofgem who've just announced their Final Decision on round-3 of the RIIO Agreements with energy transporters/transmission companies?
That impacts the RIIO-ED3 (Distribution Grid) documents which are to be written by the transitory RESPs next year.


Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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(@diverted-energy)
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@jeff but KamiKwarsi Kwartang told Centrica to close Rough as we'd not need after 2030!!

Hydrogen will never happen. Not enough Renewable surplus for hydrolosis and 1.4kwh Methane required to make 1kwh of Hydrogen.

It was a myth peddled by Gas companies to sell 40% more natural gas. It's a non starter.


This post was modified 3 weeks ago by Diverted.Energy

   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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Posted by: @diverted-energy

Hydrogen will never happen. Not enough Renewable surplus for hydrolosis and 1.4kwh Methane required to make 1kwh of Hydrogen.

As I referenced here earlier, Hydrogen production for commercial use is already the case in the area of Langage, near Plymouth.

There is an area-wide surplus of electricity generation, which would otherwise be rejected by the DNO using the ANM system.

No methane is required for that green hydrogen.
There is, in any case, a plentiful supply of combustible gas in the West Country.

 

CowGasDefrost

 


This post was modified 3 weeks ago by Transparent

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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(@jamespa)
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Posted by: @transparent

As I referenced here earlier, Hydrogen production for commercial use is already the case in the area of Langage, near Plymouth.

There is an area-wide surplus of electricity generation, which would otherwise be rejected by the DNO using the ANM system.

No methane is required for that green hydrogen.

 

So you make it in the West Country and transport it elsewhere for applications that can stand the cost, which some can becasue the alternatives are as costly. 

Still better than making it in the West Country and burning it in a house at four fold the cost of using the electricity generated in the West Country to power a heat pump in the West country!

 

Posted by: @diverted-energy

Hydrogen will never happen. Not enough Renewable surplus for hydrolosis and 1.4kwh Methane required to make 1kwh of Hydrogen.

It was a myth peddled by Gas companies to sell 40% more natural gas. It's a non starter.

For domestic heating where there is an alternative way to use the same electricity to get 4x the amount of heat, absolutely its a myth.  For some other applications where there is no such alternative, its not a myth.  Unfortunately it suits the industry to blur the case.

 


This post was modified 3 weeks ago by JamesPa

4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.


   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
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Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 558
 

For avoidance of doubt I neither support or think domestic hydrogen boilers are viable. I wish I had never posted this morning. I don't think I have posted I support hydrogen boilers. 

Am sure it is not intentional but it feels like I have a set of attack dogs onto me. 

My Cadasil is gradually impacting my brain so I suspect my posts will create even more of what feels like attacks over time, and my posts may become even more difficult to understand what I am trying to say. 

If I can ask one favour, is bear this mind and chat amougst yourself rather than quoting me. 

I don't disagree with any points on hydrogen that everyone has made.

Thanks for all the comments, I always find them really insightful and love to hear what people think. 

 



   
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Toodles
(@toodles)
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Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 2374
 

@jamespa Methinks that the fossil fuel industry have particularly well rose-tinted spectacles (otherwise known as ‘protecting their own @rses’) when it comes to the prospect of hydrogen being the salvation. I will take a lot of convincing as from everything I have read, there is a gaping hole between even the highest figure for the projected efficiency achievable within any colour of hydrogen compared with electricity being used to power heat pump technology. At 78, I feel the decisions relating to future plans to utilise such technology may pass me by (or as one poster put it, Alzheimers may have taken over my mind by then!). Shall we leave it as ‘I am not convinced that any investment in Infrastructure is something to invest (or waste tax payer’s money) on or in. Toodles.


Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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Posted by: @jeff

I wish I had never posted this morning. I don't think I have posted I support hydrogen boilers. 

I've never regretted reading anything you post here,
and I hadn't noticed that you'd sided with being pro- or anti- hydrogen-fueled boilers.

 

Posted by: @jeff

it feels like I have a set of attack dogs onto me. 

Oh no!

I'm really sorry to hear that.

I've just checked here, and all my attack dogs are sleeping soundly.
In any case, they're highly unlikely to put in an appearance on this forum.
They're trained specifically to combat planning applications from national developers and foreign-owned 'investment companies'.


Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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(@jamespa)
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Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 3750
 

Posted by: @jeff

For avoidance of doubt I neither support or think domestic hydrogen boilers are viable. I wish I had never posted this morning. I don't think I have posted I support hydrogen boilers. 

Am sure it is not intentional but it feels like I have a set of attack dogs onto me. 

I apologise if I have contributed to that, it certainly was not my intention.


4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.


   
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(@diverted-energy)
Estimable Member Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 82
 

@transparent there is nowhere near enough Surplus electricity to replace the UK volume of Gas as i said earlier.

We need it for EVs and your beloved Heat Pumps over generation of Hydrogen.

As for Portsmouth, it is the worst possible place to produce Hydrogen due to the whole South Coast being in a desert of Renewables.

II'd accept the arguments if they were producing it further North where Wind is in better supply. Of course they manufacture Hydrogen for the chemical industry but in a location of sparce Renewables - to burn Methane Gas to break water into its constituent parts to then burn in boilers is absolutely non viable.

It was a fallacy put to government by oil companies, it will never happen.

Screenshot 20251204 164155 NESO

 

 



   
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