@jamespa had the closure of coal powered electricity generation had a part to play in general increase?
Rapid Decline: Coal's share of the UK's electricity mix fell dramatically, from around 30% in 2014 to a historic low of just 0.5% in 2024.
Major Policy Shift: The UK government set a target to end all coal-fired power generation by 2025. In 2021, this deadline was brought forward to October 2024.
Driven by Renewables: The decline in coal was primarily driven by the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar power, which increased significantly since 2008.
Ratcliffe-on-Soar: The Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station, the last operational coal plant, officially closed on September 30, 2024.
Coal-Free Milestones: The UK achieved several milestones, including its first 24-hour coal-free period in 2017 and the first full week without coal power in May 2019.
@jamespa or it might be related to the number of nuclear power stations closed over that time frame?
Since 2008, five UK nuclear power stations have closed: Hinkley Point B, Hunterston B, Dungeness B, Hartlepool, and Heysham 1. Three Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor (AGR) stations (Hinkley Point B, Hunterston B, and Dungeness B) have ceased generation and begun defueling as part of their decommissioning process. Additionally, Hartlepool and Heysham 1 also closed in 2019.
or it might be related to the number of nuclear power stations closed over that time frame?
No to both so far as I can see, The wholesale price was pretty constant during this period so its doesnt appear to have anything to do with generation costs!
@diverted-energy hi. That sounds a good deal. We use ~8700kWh/year. I currently pay 27p/kWh during the day and 7p between 23:30 & 5:30 daily. I pay Octopus £104/month & have built up a good cash buffer for the winter. When I follow your link I get £200/month. They don’t seem to quote on the EV tariff until you move 😳. Which is a bit of a gamble. The 24p day rate is lower, but the 8.99p overnight is higher. I need to get my calculator out. How does the free energy work?
Daikin Altherma 3H HT 12kWh ASHP with Mixergy h/w cylinder; 4kW solar PV with Solic 200 electric diverter; Honda e and new Hyundai Ioniq 5 N electric vehicles with Myenergi Zappi mk1 charger
or it might be related to the number of nuclear power stations closed over that time frame?
No to both so far as I can see, The wholesale price was pretty constant during this period so its doesnt appear to have anything to do with generation costs!
The day ahead price is just that. The price traded for a small amount of electricity the day ahead. It is not the price of all electricity used the next day. Most electricity is bought well in advance by the likes of Octopus on power purchase agreements, combined with hedging. None of this pricing data is in the public domain.
All the suppliers that mainly tried to use the day ahead price went bust...
Also remember in terms of generating cost, a lot of wind energy is fixed via CfD contracts. The net payment to wind turbine owners is fixed per mega watt hour, even if the energy isn't actually used. Their payments get netted out over time.
The day ahead price is useful for analysis but be careful when using it.
Thanks for that clarification. As we don't have anything else it seems that day ahead price is currently all we can go on but health warning very much noted. I thought that ofgen the cap was based on cost, and they publish something of a breakdown, so it feels like there must be some data released on the wholesale price.
The gradual increase in retail price ratio gas to electricity from 2.5 in 2011 to 4 by 2020/2021 isn't based on the day ahead price so that not of the analysis still stands.
Given what you say about the day ahead price being an unreliable indicator of wholesale price it's thus possible that this change in ratio is linked to a genuine change in wholesale price, but we don't have any evidence to support that. My working hypothesis remains that it's policy driven (ie a deliberate act by government) but it would be good to know the truth. Maybe @transparent knows?
4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.
@julianc I gather the price you were quoted was Flat Rate.
I can try obtain EV rates for your area if you give me first part of your post code.
To get free electricity:
We live on batteries and over 4-7pm means Baseline is very low. EDF set a target based on 'Daily Use' and 'shifting' tra time use by 50% triggers 16hrs free Sunday Electricity
Difficult this time of year as pretty much house supplied by Solar. So, set a quick 1.5kwh charge each weekday morning. They wanted 50% reduction of 0.3% of daily use in March. June July was easier as something like 8% to 4% on that run. Rather than reduction of 4pm to 7pm, its easier to just create usage.
As this is pretty much 98% of our daily use, it skews the figures grossly in my favour.
This then triggers the 16hr as is blows the target out the water and therefore, for around 84p, I get over 110kwh plus free on Sunday.
Our daily FLUX is 0.4kwh, therefore a blast of charge artificially shifts our load - by creating some at 98% to 2% peak ratio.
My link is worth £75 to anyone signing up until the 9th Sept, £50 after.
@iaack a combination of both with no plans other than Gas to offset Baseline demand.
Read these words very carefully. Bear in mind what year we are in and prices we are paying. Also, in 2006 there was no suggestion of Russia invading Ukraine with the consequences that have since followed.
Our final remaining Nuclear fleet is soon to be closed compounding the issue. Also notice transfers from France are 3Gwh 24 hrs, 7 days per week.
In his speech last night Mr Blair said: Wed 17 May 2006 02.49 BST
"Essentially, the twin pressures of climate change and energy security are raising energy policy to the top of the agenda in the UK and around the world.
"The facts are stark. By 2025, if current policy is unchanged there will be a dramatic gap on our targets to reduce CO2 emissions, we will become heavily dependent on gas and at the same time move from being 80% to 90% self-reliant in gas to 80% to 90% dependent on foreign imports, mostly from the Middle East, and Africa and Russia.
"These facts put the replacement of nuclear power stations, a big push on renewables and a step change on energy efficiency, engaging both business and consumers, back on the agenda with a vengeance. If we don't take these long-term decisions now we will be committing a serious dereliction of our duty to the future of this country."
Can someone remind me what year we are currently in?
It was forecast as a warning from a House of Lords report that Winter 2025 was going to be the worst ever.
2023 wasn't known at the time but the bottom line being, this wasn't out the blue - it's been known for years!!
Also notice transfers from France are 3Gwh 24 hrs, 7 days per week.
I do think this is in part locational, there is far too much renewables in Scotland and the North, and nowhere near enough in the South, caused at least in part by the defacto ban on onshore wind in England and a pandering to NIMBYism generally.
If you look at the other interconnects it's a different story, for example UK almost always exports to the island of Ireland.
I'm still confused why some in Norway want to close it's interconnect to the UK, rather than use it to gain power if they need it.
caused at least in part by the defacto ban on onshore wind in England and a pandering to NIMBYism generally
Whilst I wouldn't want a wind turbine in my garden, I'd love to be able to see some, preferably quite close. They seem to me to be one of the more evocative machines of the modern age (just as windmills are one if the more evocative machines of the past). Personally I can't understand people who say they are ugly.
Solar panels are less evocative en mass, but on roofs are essentially a utilitarian covering with no great visual merit, just like tiles. However they have more functionality than tiles. Only thatch, it seems to me, conveys any real visual emotion as a roof covering. Thus aside from thatch Im as happy visually with solar panels as I am with tiles.
This post was modified 2 days ago 2 times by JamesPa
4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.
My working hypothesis remains that it's policy driven (ie a deliberate act by government) but it would be good to know the truth. Maybe @transparent knows?
Sorry.
I really struggle when dealing with the financial side of energy.
The SCR was a political decision. It was intended to reduce the connection costs for companies wanting to install a generation/storage site, and instead get consumers to pay a higher share.
this is in part locational, there is far too much renewables in Scotland and the North, and nowhere near enough in the South,
Not all of "the South".
Cornwall and the Western side of Devon have had an overall surplus of renewable generation since Spring'23. I was given this information in a conversation with a National Grid planner, which is a high quality source!
It prompted me to look at the NGED mapping tool for transformers with available headroom for more generation connections, from which data I overlaid the shaded area when creating this map:
That over-supply issue is also reflected in the Energy Flows data from NGET. The relevant map is found within the Electricity Ten Year Statement, now published online by NESO
You can usually tell when something is being done as a result of Government Policy because they apply it across the whole of Britain. But it's clearly the case that renewable generation is locational due to the differing weather conditions across the country.
In order to correct this error, it's important for 'us' to get ourselves involved in our Regional Energy Strategic Plan organisation (RESP). That's the mechanism by which we can adjust the overall targets being pursued by NESO/Ofgem, and ensure that they are applied in a manner suitable for the region.
At present it's still the case that new companies are being formed to build solar/wind farms in areas that have excess generation (Scotland and SW England).
A good example is the live planning application from Bulworthy Solar, based in London, who wish to put solar panels across 110-hectares of rural Devon farming land. That link takes you to the planning portal for Torridge District Council, but the site also straddles North Devon, and the application will be considered jointly.
There's no way any of that energy would be required in Devon. And, by the time the site would be active, Hinkley-C would be connected to the very same 400kV Transmission Line, making it nigh on impossible to export that power eastwards.
You can see why the site is attractive to speculators by looking at the map. Here I've overlaid the Distribution and Transmission grid routes on top of the applicant's site map:
Look at the proximity to Alverdiscott Grid Supply Point, and the intentions become obvious.
Another example is a proposed 300MW Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) by Greenfield Energy Developments, near Brabourne village in Kent. The application PA/2025/1331 to Ashford Borough Council refers extensively to national electricity demands in the supporting documents, and the Climate Change policies of the local Council, but plays down the presence of Sellindge to the south.
Here's a map which they used during the Public Consultation, to which I've added the yellow highlight and the 400kV annotation:
With a direct 400kV link to Sellindge, this BESS has naff all to do with benefits to the local population. It's access to the French Interconnector which attracts the Applicant.
These energy companies are after the quickest/cheapest access route to the Grid Supply Points on the transmission network. From there they can access the marine interconnectors and sell to the highest bidders across Europe.
Long term profit is pulling 'green energy firms' towards Grid Supply Points like moths to a lamp.
Government Policy isn't giving us the security of supply which we actually need. There is no obligation on an electricity generator to supply British consumers when required.
During winter storms of 2024/25, it was too dangerous for our wind-farms to remain active. NESO sought to buy electricity from Battery Energy Storage Sites (BESS). However, many had already contracted to sell elsewhere in Europe for a higher price, using the marine interconnectors.
As a result, NESO is then forced to pay very high prices to secure supplies from Gas Turbine generation plants to meet our national demand.
