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Electricity price predictions

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(@diverted-energy)
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Must be doing something right.

Our 3 bedroom, 3 occupant property, rolling average.

3500kwh Gas

1100kwh Electricity - Actual use 5800kwh

And further reduced next year..


   
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(@derek-m)
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@jeff

For those old enough to remember, we did have a nationalised electricity supply industry consisting of the Central Electricity Generating Board, National Grid and the 12 Area Distribution Boards. I don't know in detail about the operating requirements of NG and the Area Boards, but the CEGB was required to keep the lights on and to not make more than a 3% profit or a 3% loss.

Having energy markets where the prices are set by the highest bidder does not protect the consumers, but is more to do with protecting the shareholders.

Energy is a national strategic asset, and as such should not be in the hands of boards of directors.


   
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(@kev-m)
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Posted by: @transparent
Posted by: @jeff

Never going to happen though

When, this coming winter, children arrive at school cold and hungry, young single mothers queue up at food banks, and pensioners die from hypothermia, do you still think it's 'never going to happen'?

Kwarsi Kwarteng MP and Rees Mogg MP are already embarking on a 're-tendering' operation to supply energy in the UK. It will take time, but I don't think piles of historical contracts are going to be regarded as an insurmountable obstacle.

There will also be massive cross-party support from the House of Commons Committee on BEIS, chaired by Darren Jones MP. I imagine Ofgem are dreading their next call-up before that committee.

Even a complete redesign of the UK market isn't going to deliver 3p/kWh gas and 12p/kWh electricity.  I think prices around the new cap are going to be the norm in the future and we are all going to have to get used to spending more of our disposable income on energy, using less or a combination of the two.  We can tinker around the edges with standing charges and regional variations but it's not going to make any difference to what we collectively pay to deliver gas and electricity to our homes.

I really hope that, along with the subsidies, there is also a properly targeted and funded campaign to get people to use less energy.  

    


   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
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Posted by: @transparent
Posted by: @jeff

Never going to happen though

When, this coming winter, children arrive at school cold and hungry, young single mothers queue up at food banks, and pensioners die from hypothermia, do you still think it's 'never going to happen'?

Kwarsi Kwarteng MP and Rees Mogg MP are already embarking on a 're-tendering' operation to supply energy in the UK. It will take time, but I don't think piles of historical contracts are going to be regarded as an insurmountable obstacle.

There will also be massive cross-party support from the House of Commons Committee on BEIS, chaired by Darren Jones MP. I imagine Ofgem are dreading their next call-up before that committee.

It is a fair comment. 

I only referred to Nationalisation in my post. I stand by that comment. I don't think that will happen.

We have to work with improving what we have and making structural changes where realistic and renegotiations where possible. 

I do agree there is a burning platform for change. I volunteer at a food bank as i have posted before. My partner works in the child social care area, she was nominated for a place at the Buckingham Palace Garden Parties for her work with children and young people. It was interesting hearing all the great work from others when we attended this year. Very inspirational. 

I also agree that renegotiation discussions are happening and structural change will occur in how the market operates.

I think you are doing a great job inputting into government on some of the things that are possible in the home. This will be a big help on the demand side of things. 

 

 

This post was modified 2 years ago by Jeff

   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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Whilst we won't see Nationalisation as historically defined, the new RIIO contracts agreed with Ofgem provide for much greater involvement from us end-users. DNOs are also required to redefine their roles and become Distribution System Operators (DSOs). This change reflects the need to more rapidly move towards UK-based renewable energy generation and its storage.

DNOs are not permitted to own generation or storage assets. The DSO status allows them to gain better visibility of such assets attached to the Distribution Grid, and contract with asset owners to provide services.

Thus a Community Energy Group might have 70 members with 1MWh of static storage between them, all connected to same Primary transformer. They can agree a licence which is mutually beneficial, possibly involving an agreement to absorb 150kWh of excess solar generation per sunny day which is beyond the sub-station's reverse power limits, and/or ensuring that those 70 members make no demand on the grid between 16:30 and 20:30 during November to February.

If the Community Energy Group is incorporated as a CIC, it can decide how to divide the annual income from that licence agreement. Some is given to its members to lower their bills, and the remainder could be invested in additional storage.

 

Ofgem has published its draft responses to the RIIO-ED2 proposals submitted by each DNO. Since the proposals pre-date the energy-crisis, BEIS may now require them to make changes of course.

The basis of RIIO is that energy companies may only increase their revenue (and hence dividends paid to shareholders) if they comply with the agreed criteria. They often propose financial incentives which Ofgem rejects because those are regarded as part of their basic licence requirements.

They may also propose Consumer Value Propositions, which go beyond their core commitments. A CVP runs the risk that Ofgem agrees for it to form part of the RIIO-ED2 licence, but allows no additional revenue for it being included!

Here's three items which caught my eye from Ofgem's draft responses to Western Power Distribution's ED2 (Electricity Distribution, phase-2) proposals:

RIIO ED2 community

 

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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(@diverted-energy)
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Good to see Auntie Liz is subsidising Hot Tubs, Saunas and Swimming pools.

Capping the Capped rate with unlimited subsidiaries is nothing less than a home goal for conserving Energy in order to set aside for Winter.

So, now that there is uncapped 34p/kwh with no incentive to switch off and help us survive Winter. This in £million mansions will having a ball atbTax Payers expense.

I know people who are switching their Hot Tubs back on as electricity is reduced.

I agree assistance should be given but there should have been a ceiling on the amount, say the firsr 6000kwh it was applied to, beyond this, full rate 52p/kwh.

Not really encouraging to switching off loads and help preserve for Winter.

Well done Liz, although those now benefitting most,  are the ones that voted for her in the first place.

This post was modified 2 years ago by Diverted.Energy

   
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(@batalto)
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@diverted-energy who in their right mind would be turning on hot tubs at 34p/kw?! That is probably several pounds a day to run.

12kW Midea ASHP - 8.4kw solar - 29kWh batteries
262m2 house in Hampshire
Current weather compensation: 47@-2 and 31@17
My current performance can be found - HERE
Heat pump calculator spreadsheet - HERE


   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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I'm interested in those comments @diverted-energy

Back in 2013 when the specification was laid down for our Smart Meter Network, there was a feature created called the Block Tariff. This is specifically designed to charge more for households who care less about their use of electricity.

The Block Tariff sits on top of a standard half-hour ToU tariff, such as Octopus has issued. Let's first look at a stylised ToU graph, starting at 2pm:

ToU Tariff

A block tariff is now applied for the five hours when the grid suffers the highest demand. In the following illustration it adds a further 5p per kWh, but only if the household usage exceeds 4kWh total during those hours.

ToU BlockTariff

There are a number of innovative mechanisms inbuilt to our Smart Meters which few have heard of. It's frustrating that Ofgem doesn't insist that the Energy Suppliers use them. The Communications Hub is intended to do a whole lot more than just report our consumption totals.

This post was modified 2 years ago by Transparent

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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(@kev-m)
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Posted by: @diverted-energy

Good to see Auntie Liz is subsidising Hot Tubs, Saunas and Swimming pools.

Capping the Capped rate with unlimited subsidiaries is nothing less than a home goal for conserving Energy in order to set aside for Winter.

So, now that there is uncapped 34p/kwh with no incentive to switch off and help us survive Winter. This in £million mansions will having a ball atbTax Payers expense.

I know people who are switching their Hot Tubs back on as electricity is reduced.

I agree assistance should be given but there should have been a ceiling on the amount, say the firsr 6000kwh it was applied to, beyond this, full rate 52p/kwh.

Not really encouraging to switching off loads and help preserve for Winter.

Well done Liz, although those now benefitting most,  are the ones that voted for her in the first place.

I agree with the sentiment but it's very difficult to define, police and penalise excessive use.  6000 kWh of electricity would be harsh on me and other HP users and even worse for anyone with direct electric heating. OTOH 6000 kWh would allow an average user with gas CH and DHW to run a subsidised hot tub or do bit of crypto mining.  I don't want to subsidise people who have 25 deg houses and wear shorts and T shirts but it's very difficult to find a way to make them pay more for doing this.   

The relatively few people who can afford to waste energy and don't care probably don't make that much difference.  I think the shock of even the capped prices will make a lot of average users cut back, even if they could afford it.  I'd still like to see some proper campaigns to reduce energy use though.

And to be fair to the new PM, a blanket cap is about all there is time to do before winter.     

Interesting times ...


   
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(@diverted-energy)
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Joined: 2 years ago
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@batalto I know at least four.

They have the money to pay £50 plus per kwh if they had to , so why wasn't the cap limited.

Life goes on for them but now government subsidised luxury. Guy I spoke to yesterday, his house uses 120kw per day and on variable rate.

 

This post was modified 2 years ago by Diverted.Energy

   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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If I were trying to identify those who might not have concerns about electricity & gas being consumed for luxury, then I'd include most MPs and directors of energy companies. 😲 

The only politician who might possibly be aware of the Block Tariff mechanism I've just mentioned above, is Sir Ed Davey MP. He was Secretary of State for Energy at the time, and oversaw the development of the Smart Meter system for Great Britain.

We can't expect Parliament to arrive at an optimal solution for electricity bills if they remain unaware of the possibilities.

We all have a responsibility to ensure that they know what a Block Tariff is, and any other solution to the energy-crisis being discussed here.

Please feel free to copy my diagrams and write yet another email to your MP. They are the correct channel to make representations to BEIS and Ofgem.

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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(@batalto)
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@diverted-energy I expect they also pay significantly more into the Exchequer than they are perhaps getting back?

12kW Midea ASHP - 8.4kw solar - 29kWh batteries
262m2 house in Hampshire
Current weather compensation: 47@-2 and 31@17
My current performance can be found - HERE
Heat pump calculator spreadsheet - HERE


   
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