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Electricity price predictions

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JamesPa
(@jamespa)
Illustrious Member Moderator
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 4710
 

Posted by: @chandykris

@jamespa The optics look terrible though for Octopus Energy to increase prices just three weeks after they came down. I just checked that the fixed Go rates are still the same for my region. I wonder whether this is a strategy to nudge people on variable smart tariffs to move to the fixed equivalents.

To the first point I agree.  I guess that their thinking was, we have to demonstrate a price fall in April, but we cant actually afford it long term so by leaving the rise until May we are easily able to illustrate the effect of the war.  It sort of makes sense actually, probably also from a political PoV as it separates out the effects.

To the second point, quite probably.  I had planned in Feb to get a car charger and move form OG to IOG, but the rate comparison made no sense (it was more expensive in April to be on fixed IOG, which was all that they were offering,  than on variable OG).  So I didnt do so and continue with my granny charger.  Now the switch makes more sense, depending on the view of risk that electricity prices will rise/fall/stay the same.  

All in all a mess caused by circumstances completely outside UK control.


4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.


   
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(@papahuhu)
Reputable Member Member
Joined: 9 months ago
Posts: 252
 

@chandykris I fixed on cosy last September at about 14.5 and it came down to 10.7 a few weeks ago. It’s only a £25 penalty to exit but it finishes in September but it doesn’t help me as I export about 10mWh over the summer.

im waiting for IOF to restart again as 12p export is killing my system profit which I need to pay for the heat pump over the winter. Im in limbo at the moment, can’t decide if I switch to a different supplier to get 15p export or wait for octopus or Tesla to start their VPP scheme. 100green do a better tariff, 9p import and 15p export, but I’d probably need more battery capacity. Bloody orange coloured tw@t, quite pleased that uk.gov is not all in with them and will hopefully swing us back into closer EU ties again as the US is a dying empire, thankfully.



   
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JamesPa
(@jamespa)
Illustrious Member Moderator
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 4710
 

Posted by: @papahuhu

 uk.gov ... will hopefully swing us back into closer EU ties again as the US is a dying empire, thankfully.

I'm jolly glad I don't have to make that decision which, either way, has been made politically toxic!  It may be getting easier but if uk gov were to go this way it's not difficult to work out what will be on the front pages of many newspapers and all over social media for months, probably from now unitl the next election.


4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.


   
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(@old_scientist)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 405
 

Posted by: @papahuhu

@chandykris I fixed on cosy last September at about 14.5 and it came down to 10.7 a few weeks ago. It’s only a £25 penalty to exit but it finishes in September but it doesn’t help me as I export about 10mWh over the summer.

im waiting for IOF to restart again as 12p export is killing my system profit which I need to pay for the heat pump over the winter. Im in limbo at the moment, can’t decide if I switch to a different supplier to get 15p export or wait for octopus or Tesla to start their VPP scheme. 100green do a better tariff, 9p import and 15p export, but I’d probably need more battery capacity. Bloody orange coloured ****, quite pleased that uk.gov is not all in with them and will hopefully swing us back into closer EU ties again as the US is a dying empire, thankfully.

Same here.

I wonder if Octopus may reintroduce IOF as a fixed tariff with an exit fee to stop the likes of you and me switching back and forth between Cosy in winter and IOF in summer.

At the moment I'm still on variable Cosy and 12p SEG from the winter. We would have switched to IOF at the beginning of April. Last year we averaged 26p for our export on IOF, so that's a large drop and like you will have quite an impact on our overall annual bill.

For now, I'm sitting tight. My concern is that if I leave Cosy whilst this tariff lockdown is still in place, I may not be able to get back on in October and that would be equally punitive for us. I'm waiting to see what Octopus do, and if Tesla Electric offer a tariff similar to IOF although there would be the same concerns switching back and forth to Cosy in winter, but this time between two suppliers.

 


Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
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(@chandykris)
Estimable Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 168
 

@papahuhu We would like to get on Octopus Flux too. As we don't have a compatible battery, we can't get IOF. Given our South West PV array orientation, most of what we export happens during the peak 4 pm to 7 pm. This is even without exporting from the battery, and just from the PV arrays. I was hoping to move to Flux in April after switching off the heat pump. Our EV is hardly charged from end of June to September as there are no school runs. We would have made enough through exports to balance the high usage in the winter months. Well, at least we are getting 12p export rates. Hope that's not slashed further.


16 * 435 watts PV
13 kWh Growatt battery
1 EV - Mercedes EQB
6 kW Aira Heat Pump
Bosch Induction Hob
Pod Point Solo 3 charger


   
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Toodles
(@toodles)
Famed Member Contributor
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 2711
 

@old_scientist Same too here as well. Shouldn’t have any grid consumption to speak of over the next few months but the export rate of 12 pence will not build much of a buffer for next winter’s ASHP consumption either🤨.

Have had a reply to my email to Greg; Tega replied and here is an extract:

“Thank you for taking the time to share such a thoughtful message, and for your kind words about what we’re trying to achieve, it genuinely means a lot. It’s also great to see how engaged you’ve been with our different tariffs over the years, and how effectively you’re using your home setup with solar, battery storage, and a heat pump.

I completely understand the point you’ve raised. While our EV tariffs are designed with electric vehicle charging in mind, the underlying idea, rewarding customers who can shift their usage to off-peak times is exactly what you’re describing.

Although I’m not directly involved in the specific tariff design, I’ve made sure your feedback is shared with the relevant team. We’re always exploring ways to make our tariffs more inclusive and better suited to different types of households, especially those who can help reduce strain on the grid during peak times.

In the meantime, i can see you're already on Cosy which currently is the closest fit for customers who can shift their energy usage based on pricing signals.

Thank you again for your message and for being such an engaged customer.“

 

Regards, Toodles.

 


Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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(@old_scientist)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 405
 

I wonder what fully electric households do? Those with EV's, heat pumps and solar/battery. Unless they have sufficient battery capacity to run the heat pump all day in winter, I see a conflict between the cheapest overnight rates for charging the EV and the most economical tariffs for running the heat pump. Maybe they just go large on their battery capacity and go for the cheapest overnight tariff, but there is a definite conflict between large EV usage and large ASHP usage, and their respective tariffs. Octopus' tool suggests IOG if you have a compatible car/charger or Flux/IOF if you have a compatible battery.

I guess V2H/V2G may solve some of these issues, as once the car returns home from work in the evening, it can power the home until the overnight cheap rate period starts again, so the house battery would only need to cover the period from the end of the overnight cheap rate until the EV returns home in the evening (assuming our EV driver works 9-5). But then you're looking at charging a car and a house battery in a short overnight cheap rate window which is going to seriously stress the import, especially when everyone has gone electric and we are all trying to do the same thing!


This post was modified 2 hours ago by Old_Scientist

Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
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(@chandykris)
Estimable Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 168
 

@old_scientist We are a low mileage home, so bulk of our electricity usage in the winter is for the heat pump. We doubled our battery storage last spring, so Go has been similar to what Cosy would have cost us. Surprisingly, we exported a bit more last year on Cosy as the battery gets topped up again from 1 pm to 4 pm, and once it's full we exported more in March and April. Now that our off-peak period ends at 5:30 and the batteries gets discharged more until afternoon, we exported less this year in March. That pattern is repeating again in April. Also double the battery size means it's using more from solar to fully charge. Having said that overall grid usage has dropped as we are not importing more to top up the battery on Cosy rates. Overall, Go has been the best tariff for us despite the EV using only about 1/6 of HP usage.


This post was modified 56 minutes ago by ChandyKris
This post was modified 55 minutes ago by ChandyKris

16 * 435 watts PV
13 kWh Growatt battery
1 EV - Mercedes EQB
6 kW Aira Heat Pump
Bosch Induction Hob
Pod Point Solo 3 charger


   
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