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(@lucia)
Prominent Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 354
 

@transparent

I was talking with a Labour MP earlier today.
On a particular point (s)he said "Well we need to get the grid sorted out first!"

There was no attempt to explain what (s)he thought might be wrong with the grid,
or from what source that opinion had been obtained.

But if that thinking is representative of Government thinking (and it might be), then it's likely to result in some very skewed policy decisions.

 

Which Labour MP? This is devoid of context. 

As for MPs and "policy decisions" as I've said in this forum before that's not how things are done. This is all fantasy politics far removed from reality.  I'm not sure what the object of these posts are...

@transparent 

If MPs and Councillors don't get to hear any alternative views (from us), then it's unlikely that their own understanding of science is adequate to appreciate that the solar generation sector might be biased.

 

"Alternative views" ....

This is so far removed from the realities of policy formation, expert opinions and science advisory councils that I'm questioning why it's here. It sounds like soft lobbying to me. 

Is this the "alternative views" that oppose every renewables planning application?  🤔

Yet doesn't understand the how the roll out of renewables actually functions? 🤦🏻‍♀️

Who is this "Us" ? Reform UK?

Funded by oil and gas lobbies and with dark connections to the drill-baby-drill far-right in the US?  The millionaires who brought us Brexit while making sure they all had European passports and who made millions shorting the pound on voting day? The 'Stop Stupid Net Zero' millionaires with solar panels on their roofs and links to fascists? 

Because there's a superb range of expert opinion in the S. West, for example. The University of Exeter has a world-renown climate and energy policy department.  Never mind Plymouth and elsewhere. Perhaps it would be better to point your councillors and MPs at experts. 

Renewables are providing major employment opportunities and boosting the local economy in the S.West. This has been a long term plan not linked to partisan politics.  Give thanks because for too long the deep south west was ignored by London. 

@transparent I wonder how many Government MPs are even aware of NESO's announcement that the number of applications for yet more (generation) connections to the grid
is four-times greater than is required to meet the 2030 target for de-carbonisation of our electricity supply. (Watch the embedded video clip)

I'm not sure if this is evidence of not understanding how contemporary grids actually work or just plain misinformation? 

These are called 'Zombie applications' - it's like putting a place-holder in a queue 'just in case' your business might need it in a few years time. There were literally thousands of them because in the early days there were no regulations or cost on who could apply to be in the grid connection queue. Many of them aren't even traceable to functioning companies any more and THAT is what NESO is talking about.

They are cleaning up the queue - nothing more. Because NESO wants to see major 'ready-to-go' renewable energy generation installations located nation-wide. 

This is such basic grid knowledge... It certainly is NOT justification for opposing planning applications for renewables. 

Maybe you should be sharing scientific evidence with your Reform MPs and councillors    

"A host of eminent scientists have warned politicians, business and community leaders that the UK risks severe climate-related risks to its economy, public health, food systems and national security."

@transparent

Community Energy doesn't necessarily require the installation of any new generation assets.
It's about buying energy which is available locally, and selling it to Members (usually within a zone defined by the area supplied by a Primary sub-station).

Have a look at Energy Local Totnes.
They came across an existing hydro-turbine with (a lot of) unused capacity.

"They came across"  As you do... Amazing what you find lying around on a country walk.  [🙈] 

Totnes is a Transition Town 

Energy is only available "locally" if a bunch of Reform voting pensioners and flag flying bullies haven't launched a campaign to oppose the planning applications for generation and storage.  Usually backed up by a lot of misinformation and half-truths. 

Community energy is about a lot more than the description in the posts above. 

BTW Totty is aiming for new wind and solar generation eventually but they're likely to get ferocious if you oppose it.  These guys have 100 years of practice under their belt and George Monbiot living locally. I wouldn't mess with them.  😁😂

I've said it before - I'm not partisan about politics - I also accept that people 'may' vote Reform for diverse reasons and may not all be in agreement with the glossed over currents of racism and dark nationalist manipulations lurking underneath. 

But I've also said before that the science of climate change is not negotiable or something we can 'manage' a bit - we owe it to the future of 'our' planet to focus on it . 



   
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(@batpred)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 349
 

@lucia Absolutely. 

And all this talk about being ready for the end of net zero as if it is anything with significant support in parliament...

How this comes across: 

..promoting these current talk of these old school politicians that do not have any track record on delivery. 

- scaremongering that just serves the objective of artificially shifting the middle ground, to the point where reasonable science based advice may look extreme and unrealistic. 

 

@transparent can you make sure to include sources?  And the lack of context leads to misinterpretation and to feeding conspiracy theories.. 


16kWh Seplos Fogstar battery; 8kW Solis S6-EH1P8K-L-PLUS hybrid inverter; Ohme Home Pro EV charger; 100Amp head, HA lab on mini PC


   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
Illustrious Member Moderator
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 2819
 

Posted by: @lucia

I was talking with a Labour MP earlier today.
On a particular point (s)he said "Well we need to get the grid sorted out first!"

There was no attempt to explain what (s)he thought might be wrong with the grid [...]

Which Labour MP? This is devoid of context. 

The context is Electricity Price Predictions - the Topic title.
The un-named MP and I were discussing the future cost of electricity.

 

Posted by: @lucia

Who is this "Us" ? Reform UK?

"Us" refers to Members on this forum.

Not only are there experts here on the Forum, but there's a breadth of insight which is often lacking in official reports.

 

Posted by: @lucia

Because there's a superb range of expert opinion in the S. West, for example. The University of Exeter has a world-renown climate and energy policy department.  Never mind Plymouth and elsewhere. Perhaps it would be better to point your councillors and MPs at experts.

That's the approach Britain took with HS2.
The number and depth of academic reports was substantial.

The costs were given less emphasis because they were substantiated on the future boost to the economy, brought about by benefits which HS2 would bring to the Midlands and the North of England.

 

Posted by: @lucia

Renewables are providing major employment opportunities and boosting the local economy in the S.West. This has been a long term plan not linked to partisan politics.  Give thanks because for too long the deep south west was ignored by London. 

SW England region is indeed rich in renewables resources.

The following map is taken from the SW Nations and Regions Context, part of an ongoing consultation led by NESO.

It shows the present operational generation capacity, divided into areas served by Primary Substations (33kV input):

image

There are twenty further renewable energy generation sites in the queue for this SW region, totaling 9GW, which already have Offers to Connect to the grid.

That list is confidential, but does not include the 2700-acre Beacon Solar Farm being proposed for the area just north of Pyworthy Bulk Supply Point (see location on map below).

 

Now let's look at the 'boosting the local economy' aspect.

NESO have helpfully published the same map, but showing areas which suffer most from energy poverty.
The divisions are Local Government boundaries.

Fuel Poverty is measured using the Low Income Low Energy Efficiency (LILEE) indicator.
Under this indicator, a household is considered to be fuel poor if they are living in a property
with fuel poverty energy efficiency rating of band D or below and when they spend the required
amount to heat their home, they are left with a residual income below the official poverty line.
[HMG Fuel Poverty Statistics]

image

 

Let me combine those two maps, and add a couple of the National Grid routes which can accept that renewable generation from Cornwall:

image

 

The evidence for economic prosperity isn't there.
The electricity generated from the wealth of renewable sources is carried away by grid cables which pass through the most impoverished areas.

The route between Fraddon BSP and Alverdiscott GSP is most heavily beyond the specified limits.
Both the 400kV National Grid Transmission lines and the 132kV Distribution Grid are under 'thermal constraint'.

Installing yet more generation at Pyworthy will simply add to the problem.

It will make no difference whether a new 400kV Grid Supply Point is built at Pyworthy, although the Beacon Solar application relies on this.
The costs of that GSP would be funded by bill-payers, not Galileo Empower who wish to build the solar farm.

 

Posted by: @lucia

These are called 'Zombie applications' - it's like putting a place-holder in a queue 'just in case' your business might need it in a few years time. There were literally thousands of them because in the early days there were no regulations or cost on who could apply to be in the grid connection queue. Many of them aren't even traceable to functioning companies any more and THAT is what NESO is talking about.

They are cleaning up the queue - nothing more. Because NESO wants to see major 'ready-to-go' renewable energy generation installations located nation-wide. 

This is such basic grid knowledge... It certainly is NOT justification for opposing planning applications for renewables. 

The Zombie Applications referred to are being re-evaluated within NESOs Connections Reform process.
This commenced in May'25, and will be notifying Applicants of their queue status next week (1st Dec'25)

Applications for Grid Connections which will not be proceeded with are classified as those which fail to pass through Gate-1.
Gate-1 applications will be identified by the end of December. (Happy Christmas!)

 

Cleaning up the queue to identify the projects which are ready-to-go is insufficient.
There is also an analysis of the timescale within which a grid connection of the relevant capacity could be provided by the DNO or the three Transmission Grid Operators.

The grid knowledge required is far from basic.
I have access to a substantial amount of the underlying data, and I still need to seek clarifications from engineers when I find anomalies (see footnote).

 

Opposing planning applications for renewables due to

  • there being no available capacity to accept the generation
  • the costs of the required grid upgrades being as unaffordable as HS2
  • no financial benefit to the local economy
  • risks to grid resilience or security of supply

 

... are not classed as 'material facts' within Planning Legislation.
The application would be granted consent anyway.

That's why there are a growing number of protest groups who can foresee the looming problems of the present approach.

 

Footnote: An example of a data anomaly is depicted in the Blue map above: showing operational generation capacity.

The Eastern 60% of Dartmoor is shown in the darkest blue colour, indicating the highest category of generation (22MW to 2.6GW).

That is incorrect.
There is too little generation in that area to be featured in the categories described on the map.

Even if that section of Dartmoor National Park were to host substantial wind, solar and hydro generation,
it lacks the grid infrastructure to which it could be connected.

The only 132kV cable route serving Dartmoor terminates at North Tawton, just outside the Park Boundary to the north.
It's a single-circuit pole-mounted route, which offers the lowest level of resilience.

Such flawed data on this map will be incorrectly informing those who are developing the Strategic Plan for Energy in SW England.


This post was modified 3 weeks ago 11 times by Transparent

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
Noble Member Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 558
 

Are you an academic @lucia?



   
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(@batpred)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 349
 

I am looking to octopus rates in SE England to assess what the intraday difference between import and export agile rates tends to be.

On many days there seems to be a 3-4 p differential between the lowest import and the highest export. 

Screenshot 20251130 164306

 

I think I read somewhere that a number of people had done the maths and concluded it is not significant enough to put a battery and inverter to work. But the investment cost aside, is the wear and tear of the components enough to set the system to not try to do this? 

And I am curious... Does this price differential tend to stay at this level a good number of days in a typical year?


16kWh Seplos Fogstar battery; 8kW Solis S6-EH1P8K-L-PLUS hybrid inverter; Ohme Home Pro EV charger; 100Amp head, HA lab on mini PC


   
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(@batpred)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 12 months ago
Posts: 349
 

Of course, should anyone have a magic ball, predictions are welcome! 


16kWh Seplos Fogstar battery; 8kW Solis S6-EH1P8K-L-PLUS hybrid inverter; Ohme Home Pro EV charger; 100Amp head, HA lab on mini PC


   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
Noble Member Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 558
 

Posted by: @transparent

Posted by: @lucia

I was talking with a Labour MP earlier today.
On a particular point (s)he said "Well we need to get the grid sorted out first!"

There was no attempt to explain what (s)he thought might be wrong with the grid [...]

Which Labour MP? This is devoid of context. 

The context is Electricity Price Predictions - the Topic title.
The un-named MP and I were discussing the future cost of electricity.

 

Posted by: @lucia

Who is this "Us" ? Reform UK?

"Us" refers to Members on this forum.

Not only are there experts here on the Forum, but there's a breadth of insight which is often lacking in official reports.

 

Posted by: @lucia

Because there's a superb range of expert opinion in the S. West, for example. The University of Exeter has a world-renown climate and energy policy department.  Never mind Plymouth and elsewhere. Perhaps it would be better to point your councillors and MPs at experts.

That's the approach Britain took with HS2.
The number and depth of academic reports was substantial.

The costs were given less emphasis because they were substantiated on the future boost to the economy, brought about by benefits which HS2 would bring to the Midlands and the North of England.

 

Posted by: @lucia

Renewables are providing major employment opportunities and boosting the local economy in the S.West. This has been a long term plan not linked to partisan politics.  Give thanks because for too long the deep south west was ignored by London. 

SW England region is indeed rich in renewables resources.

The following map is taken from the SW Nations and Regions Context, part of an ongoing consultation led by NESO.

It shows the present operational generation capacity, divided into areas served by Primary Substations (33kV input):

image

There are twenty further renewable energy generation sites in the queue for this SW region, totaling 9GW, which already have Offers to Connect to the grid.

That list is confidential, but does not include the 2700-acre Beacon Solar Farm being proposed for the area just north of Pyworthy Bulk Supply Point (see location on map below).

 

Now let's look at the 'boosting the local economy' aspect.

NESO have helpfully published the same map, but showing areas which suffer most from energy poverty.
The divisions are Local Government boundaries.

Fuel Poverty is measured using the Low Income Low Energy Efficiency (LILEE) indicator.
Under this indicator, a household is considered to be fuel poor if they are living in a property
with fuel poverty energy efficiency rating of band D or below and when they spend the required
amount to heat their home, they are left with a residual income below the official poverty line.
[HMG Fuel Poverty Statistics]

image

 

Let me combine those two maps, and add a couple of the National Grid routes which can accept that renewable generation from Cornwall:

image

 

The evidence for economic prosperity isn't there.
The electricity generated from the wealth of renewable sources is carried away by grid cables which pass through the most impoverished areas.

The route between Fraddon BSP and Alverdiscott GSP is most heavily beyond the specified limits.
Both the 400kV National Grid Transmission lines and the 132kV Distribution Grid are under 'thermal constraint'.

Installing yet more generation at Pyworthy will simply add to the problem.

It will make no difference whether a new 400kV Grid Supply Point is built at Pyworthy, although the Beacon Solar application relies on this.
The costs of that GSP would be funded by bill-payers, not Galileo Empower who wish to build the solar farm.

 

Posted by: @lucia

These are called 'Zombie applications' - it's like putting a place-holder in a queue 'just in case' your business might need it in a few years time. There were literally thousands of them because in the early days there were no regulations or cost on who could apply to be in the grid connection queue. Many of them aren't even traceable to functioning companies any more and THAT is what NESO is talking about.

They are cleaning up the queue - nothing more. Because NESO wants to see major 'ready-to-go' renewable energy generation installations located nation-wide. 

This is such basic grid knowledge... It certainly is NOT justification for opposing planning applications for renewables. 

The Zombie Applications referred to are being re-evaluated within NESOs Connections Reform process.
This commenced in May'25, and will be notifying Applicants of their queue status next week (1st Dec'25)

Applications for Grid Connections which will not be proceeded with are classified as those which fail to pass through Gate-1.
Gate-1 applications will be identified by the end of December. (Happy Christmas!)

 

Cleaning up the queue to identify the projects which are ready-to-go is insufficient.
There is also an analysis of the timescale within which a grid connection of the relevant capacity could be provided by the DNO or the three Transmission Grid Operators.

The grid knowledge required is far from basic.
I have access to a substantial amount of the underlying data, and I still need to seek clarifications from engineers when I find anomalies (see footnote).

 

Opposing planning applications for renewables due to

  • there being no available capacity to accept the generation
  • the costs of the required grid upgrades being as unaffordable as HS2
  • no financial benefit to the local economy
  • risks to grid resilience or security of supply

 

... are not classed as 'material facts' within Planning Legislation.
The application would be granted consent anyway.

That's why there are a growing number of protest groups who can foresee the looming problems of the present approach.

 

Footnote: An example of a data anomaly is depicted in the Blue map above: showing operational generation capacity.

The Eastern 60% of Dartmoor is shown in the darkest blue colour, indicating the highest category of generation (22MW to 2.6GW).

That is incorrect.
There is too little generation in that area to be featured in the categories described on the map.

Even if that section of Dartmoor National Park were to host substantial wind, solar and hydro generation,
it lacks the grid infrastructure to which it could be connected.

The only 132kV cable route serving Dartmoor terminates at North Tawton, just outside the Park Boundary to the north.
It's a single-circuit pole-mounted route, which offers the lowest level of resilience.

Such flawed data on this map will be incorrectly informing those who are developing the Strategic Plan for Energy in SW England.

Thanks @transparent, really interesting seeing that level of joined up detail. 

Thanks for spending so much time and effort to post it. 

It is not easy getting the balance right between the level of detail/sources. If you post that much detail every time, the forum would be a full time job for you. 

It begs the question if you don't mind, do you have some suggested specific options that could be followed to help the fuel poor in any of those specific areas you mentioned? 

 



   
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Toodles
(@toodles)
Illustrious Member Contributor
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 2367
 

@batpred Out of curiosity only, I have been checking the Agile rates daily for some time now; there are many days when there are no HH’s where the rate is lower than the 15p. OE Outgoing rate. I have doubts that there would be much if any advantage in attempting arbitrage on this basis (even without taking wear & tear into account.) Toodles the Scrooge.


This post was modified 3 weeks ago by Toodles

Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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Toodles
(@toodles)
Illustrious Member Contributor
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 2367
 

@batpred I’m afraid that Rachel Reeves has slapped a very hefty tax on Crystal…


Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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Majordennisbloodnok
(@majordennisbloodnok)
Famed Member Moderator
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 1277
 

@batpred, the figures on the graph you show suggest a difference of more in the region of 7-8p.

I'm certainly one of those who's done the maths. The figures I came out with are based on a battery having an actual lifespan that is the same as its listed life expectancy since that's the only reliable data available. However, the actual lifespan of a battery is quite likely to be significantly longer than that. Nonetheless, based on the quoted life expectancy of a battery combined with its purchase cost, my calculations suggested my battery attracts a depreciation cost of about 4p per kWh, meaning that 7-8p suggested in your graphs would be financially worthwhile.

As for your Octopus question, yes the price differential between the incoming and outgoing Agile tariffs has historically been along those lines quite often.

However, the period available to discharge the battery at the highest export rate has typically only been one or two half hour slots. Even if you were able to exploit that every day of the year at the maximum throughput, your 8kW inverter would earn you a princely sum of £87.60 and leave your battery in the winter with 8kWh less to avoid your heat pump from importing from the grid at a higher price than necessary. In practice, unless you enjoy the thrill of the chase, the gaming of the agile rates to make money is a lot of effort for very little real return.


105 m2 bungalow in South East England
Mitsubishi Ecodan 8.5 kW air source heat pump
18 x 360W solar panels
1 x 6 kW GroWatt battery and SPH5000 inverter
1 x Myenergi Zappi
1 x VW ID3
Raised beds for home-grown veg and chickens for eggs

"Semper in excretia; sumus solum profundum variat"


   
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Majordennisbloodnok
(@majordennisbloodnok)
Famed Member Moderator
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 1277
 

Posted by: @toodles

@batpred Out of curiosity only, I have been checking the Agile rates daily for some time now; there are many days when there are no HH’s where the rate is lower than the 15p. OE Outgoing rate. I have doubts that there would be much if any advantage in attempting arbitrage on this basis (even without taking wear & tear into account.) Toodles the Scrooge.

Compared with fixed outgoing, that's correct, @toodles, but @batpred's talking about agile outgoing where the maximums can often go higher than 15p.

 


105 m2 bungalow in South East England
Mitsubishi Ecodan 8.5 kW air source heat pump
18 x 360W solar panels
1 x 6 kW GroWatt battery and SPH5000 inverter
1 x Myenergi Zappi
1 x VW ID3
Raised beds for home-grown veg and chickens for eggs

"Semper in excretia; sumus solum profundum variat"


   
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Toodles
(@toodles)
Illustrious Member Contributor
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 2367
 

@majordennisbloodnok Roulette anyone? 😉


Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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