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Electricity price predictions

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JulianC
(@julianc)
Noble Member Member
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 330
 

@diverted-energy glad to see you have worked out how to get the best energy deal. We can’t go back in time. We do need some nuclear for base load. I’m not sure about too much nuclear - where do we store the waste?  Your predictions could be good. I think with bi-directional charging and enough EVs/batteries we can balance when wind is low. We do need to invest in more wind and solar too. But with increased demand and supply and modelling, the future is indeed bright and green.

Daikin Altherma 3H HT 12kWh ASHP with Mixergy h/w cylinder; 4kW solar PV with Solic 200 electric diverter; Honda e and new Hyundai Ioniq 5 N electric vehicles with Myenergi Zappi mk1 charger


   
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(@scalextrix)
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Joined: 11 months ago
Posts: 59
 

Posted by: @technogeek

With the way electricity is going, ever increasing curtailment costs with each new renewable project built

That is a symptom of effectively banning onshore wind in England under the prior government, meaning overcapacity in Scotland where there isn't enough North / South grid capacity to ship the electrons.

Fortunately the present government has allowed some big batteries to come on line and England can get turbines again, which should help to stop curtailment.


   
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TechnoGeek
(@technogeek)
Reputable Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 125
 

@jamespa

Posted by: @jamespa

Sorry that statement ignores the science.

The climate science or the fact there is a lot of renewable energy generating companies making a lot of money to practically do nothing at the expense of the bill payer? I refer to the latter!

I do not need to be convinced about the climate crises as I (unlike Mr Trump) have seen it first hand over the last 20+ years! 🙁

5 Bedroom House in Cambridgeshire, double glazing, 300mm loft insulation and cavity wall insulation
Design temperature 21C @ OAT -2C = 10.2Kw heat loss
Bivalent system containing:
12Kw Samsung High Temperature Quiet (Gen 6) heat pump
26Kw Grant Blue Flame Oil Boiler
All controlled with Honeywell Home smart thermostat


   
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(@jamespa)
Illustrious Member Moderator
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 2745
 

It's also worth remarking that energy prices are both volatile and political.  It's not so long ago that people with oil heating were the poor relations because the fuel was so expensive relative to alternatives.

 

I'm not sure exactly what is making it cheap at present (dumping to combat the fear that the renewables industry is a real threat?).  

 

4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.


   
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TechnoGeek
(@technogeek)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 125
 

@scalextrix

Posted by: @scalextrix

That is a symptom of effectively banning onshore wind in England under the prior government, meaning overcapacity in Scotland where there isn't enough North / South grid capacity to ship the electrons.

Fortunately the present government has allowed some big batteries to come on line and England can get turbines again, which should help to stop curtailment.

 

Well let us see after they have built all the power hungry data centres they have planned for the south of England! With the fail-over redundancy required for each data centre cluster, that is a lot more centres than people realise. On the Amazon system for example, your exact same data is on at least three geographically different data centres to ensure is does not get lost. In my estimation it will very quickly swallow up the extra power capacity built.

 

The question is, are we still going to have to pay curtailment costs for the existing off shore wind turbines even though they may have built more on shore?

This post was modified 49 minutes ago by TechnoGeek

5 Bedroom House in Cambridgeshire, double glazing, 300mm loft insulation and cavity wall insulation
Design temperature 21C @ OAT -2C = 10.2Kw heat loss
Bivalent system containing:
12Kw Samsung High Temperature Quiet (Gen 6) heat pump
26Kw Grant Blue Flame Oil Boiler
All controlled with Honeywell Home smart thermostat


   
ReplyQuote
TechnoGeek
(@technogeek)
Reputable Member Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 125
 

@jamespa 

Posted by: @jamespa

I'm not sure exactly what is making it cheap at present (dumping to combat the fear that the renewables industry is a real threat?). 

Currently it is due to over production of crude oil and some producing nations not towing the line with regards to production agreements within OPEC+ etc. Too much oil on the market kills the price per barrel. It jumped slightly a few days ago due to geopolitical issues but has settled down again.

5 Bedroom House in Cambridgeshire, double glazing, 300mm loft insulation and cavity wall insulation
Design temperature 21C @ OAT -2C = 10.2Kw heat loss
Bivalent system containing:
12Kw Samsung High Temperature Quiet (Gen 6) heat pump
26Kw Grant Blue Flame Oil Boiler
All controlled with Honeywell Home smart thermostat


   
ReplyQuote



(@scalextrix)
Estimable Member Member
Joined: 11 months ago
Posts: 59
 

@technogeek I'm not sure that matters too much, what matters is that the generation is close to the consumption, meaning you arent having to push it hundreds of miles over the high voltage network.


   
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(@jamespa)
Illustrious Member Moderator
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 2745
 

Posted by: @technogeek

The climate science or the fact there is a lot of renewable energy generating companies making a lot of money to practically do nothing at the expense of the bill payer? I refer to the latter!

True, but of course they had to be convinced to invest in the first place because the bill payer didn't pay for the infrastructure.

In an uncertain political climate I can understand why a long term investment commands a premium.  

4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.


   
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(@old_scientist)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 224
 

Posted by: @technogeek

@jamespa

Posted by: @jamespa

Sorry that statement ignores the science.

The climate science or the fact there is a lot of renewable energy generating companies making a lot of money to practically do nothing at the expense of the bill payer? I refer to the latter!

I do not need to be convinced about the climate crises as I (unlike Mr Trump) have seen it first hand over the last 20+ years! 🙁

As an investor in multiple listed renewable companies on the FTSE, I can assure you I'm not making a lot of money doing nothing. In fact, 6 of the 7 listed renewable funds I have invested in have lost substantial amounts of money over the last 3 years. Take a look at UK Wind (UKW), a £4.2bn operator of UK wind farms, that is down 32% over the last 3 years. I personally have a substantial investment.

Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
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