@dgclimatecontrol  @drei  

There are some numbers for embodied carbon here from a source that is likely to be realitively unbiased. 

Whilst it us true that a heat pump has greater embodied carbon than a gas boiler (it's heavier and for any given material, mostly steel/copper/brass in both cases, embodied carbon us more or less proportional to mass), this is easily outweighed by the savings during the lifetime.

Typical figures are in the order of  (based on a 6kW heat pump)

Embodied carbon approx 1 - 2 Tonnes

Annual energy emissions from a gas boiler based on 6kW house loss (12MWh/year consumption, actually an underestimate) approx 2.5 Tonnes 

Annual energy emissions from heat pump based on 6kW house loss (12MWh/year delivered, cop 3, 4MWh delivered) approx 1 Tonne

Basically a heat pump pays for its embodied carbon in a year or two of use, which means that it's sensible (environmentally) even to throw out a new gas boiler and replace it with a heat pump.

Even if you factor in replacement parts (which boilers also need) there is no way you are going to come anywhere close to eliminating, or even putting much of a dent in, the operational carbon savings.

The facts in this case are clear, just like the science of climate change.  The problem is that the oil industry doesn't like the facts which is why it has hidden them for decades and (now it can no longer hide them) is creating distractions and misinformation.

For the oil industry its not just that their product is under threat, it's that renewable energy can be generated almost anywhere, so big corporations or dictator states can't control it in other words big oil has nowhere to go.   Now consider what they will do if their misinformation tactics succeed!

Posted by: @drei

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@JamesPa it’s fortunate you managed to cover a heat pump, solar PV and an EV for £40k. Considering that an EV alone often costs around that figure, that’s a very good outcome.

I never buy new cars!  3 year old low mileage Niro, £k21.  Somebody else can take the initial depreciation! 

Heat pump 6k after grant.

4kWp solar 14k (in 2011 - they were very expensive back then, but you d8d get a very generous fit payment))

I do hope you are able to get your heat pump fixed soon.  TBH I can understand why installers are reluctant to quote for fixing up someone else's bad work, although in reality it probably basically needs the buffer removing and some rads replacing, the material costs of which are almost negligible.  The problem of course is that it means they assume responsibility and so for them it's better to rip and replace altogether.  This is a bit mad really, but its difficult to see what the way round is.

@jamespa and my weakness is new cars and vans! But we don't smoke, drink or go on holiday.

Posted by: @jamespa

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For the oil industry its not just that their product is under threat, it's that renewable energy can be generated almost anywhere, so big corporations or dictator states can't control it in other words big oil has nowhere to go.   Now consider what they will do if their misinformation tactics succeed!

I don't see misinformation about heat pumps as the problem, the problem is the affordability and the disruption from installation, they're undoubtably much better for the environment but with typical installation costs starting at £11,000+ before the government grant, the practical difficulties and inflexibilities in the grant system, installer practices and skills, disruption from installation, need to fit the house around the needs of the heat-pump system, this all piles up to create quite a hurdle to adoption. 

And then there's the running costs, where the benefit of the heat-pump's hugely better efficiency is entirely absorbed by the higher cost of electricity in Britain. Gas at around 6p/kWh, electricity around 25p/kWh, you need an SCOP of around 4 just to break even. The time of use tariffs help with some low cost periods, but these typically have higher costs during the rest of the day, particularly at peak, so come with their own disadvantages and inflexibilities. 

Its all fixable, but it needs electricity costs to come down so there's some running cost savings and more flexibility on the design and installation side, so it is less disruptive and installs are less costly.

Posted by: @temperature_gradient

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I don't see misinformation about heat pumps as the problem

I said (or at least meant) a problem not the problem and are that the other matters you mention are also problems, quite likely bigger.  As you say it all adds up to a significant hurdle.

We still aren't even installing heat pumps in all new houses, which makes absolutely no sense!

Posted by: @dgclimatecontrol

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@jamespa and my weakness is new cars and vans! But we don't smoke, drink or go on holiday.

I have heard of many people with a weakness for new cars, rather few for new vans.

Mine is a pint or several, probably as costly averaged over a lifetime.

Posted by: @dgclimatecontrol

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@drei Your unfortunately so correct about the carbon footprint.  Ive been in the industry that I'm passionate about for nearly 50 years,  a boiler is cheap fairly simple and easier to recylcle or replace.    A heat pump is very complex with many unique expensive parts within it, I know, I've replaced many pcb's fan motors and a few compressors, plus the dreaded 4 way valve. Its a goldmine for the service/repair industry that for many customers will be expensive. For example if a compressor fails in year 8, if still available, youll need to change the main pcb £300 and compressor £1500+ and then pay an FGas engineer £1000 plus to fit it all and Re gas it. (plus vat)   If they decide to scrap it all and replace with a boiler (£2500) at least they'll have say a 3 year warranty and lower repair bills. Similar with EVs, but time will tell....

When you get a heat pump quote, ask how much the annual service cost is, how long is the warranty and some sample repair prices. Then speak to us and we'll tell you whether that seems realistic.  So called 'Green' is not just about a cheap install with a large grant.

Best and most honest thing I’ve heard. You wouldn’t believe the abuse I’ve received whenever I ask people: “Do you actually know what the total cost of ownership for a heat pump is?” Because I do now…

I work as a system implementation specialist and later moved into project and programme management on technology projects. In the public sector it’s almost comical, they’ll say “but this software is free!” and my first question is always: “OK, but do you know what it will really cost you over the next 5+ years?”

Nine times out of ten, the so-called “free” option ends up being much more expensive, because that’s the intention. Heat pumps (and EVs, for that matter) risk falling into the same trap: attractive up-front grants and promises, but the long-term costs can be staggering if you’re not prepared for them.

@drei my career has been in Procurement so dealing with lifetime costs is part of my DNA.

For our install the annual service cost will basically be the same as our current boiler and pressurised cylinder cost to service.

Warranty for the HP is 7 years, so if the compressor fails in year 8, would probably just buy a new one, why bother with outdated tech, unless it's a cheap repair.

Posted by: @drei

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the long-term costs can be staggering if you’re not prepared for them.

Er that's true of boilers also, except the long term costs are 100% guaranteed certain and manifest themselves as climate change. 

Heating, it seems, is fundamentally costly, perhaps we should invest in wooly jumpers!

@jamespa Crossing sheep with kangaroos?

🙁🙁🙁🙁🙁

Posted by: @jamespa

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Posted by: @drei

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the long-term costs can be staggering if you’re not prepared for them.

Er that's true of boilers also, except the long term costs are 100% guaranteed certain and manifest themselves as climate change. 

Heating, it seems, is fundamentally costly, perhaps we should invest in wooly jumpers!

Main difference is, with the money it costs to replace one Heat Pump if it fails, I can replace 3 or 4 gas boilers. Let's be honest about it, the money people invest in Heat Pumps and long term cost, you could literary swap to a new gas boiler every 5 years for the remainder of your life, and still be cheaper.

My Valiant boiler was installed in 2009 for £3500 + radiators, and still running great in the property when we moved out. I think we did the service around once every 3 years or so for good measures. The only thing I had to replace on it was the motherboard in 2018, cost me I think £250/300 with labour. Another issue I had, was during the -10c freeze, due to condensation it stopped working, and had to call someone out as I didn't know how to get it fixed myself. The rest was cleaning the Magnaclean every few years if not happened at the same time as the service.

Total maybe £700 over 16 years.

What do you think the total cost for the Heat Pump will be over 16 years?

Just had the service done on the HP yesterday, £250 that included a £39 discount for new clients (apparently), so really we are talking about £289.

Instead o paying £23k for the heat pump, and most likely another £15k to £25k to fix it, with that money I should have got a flat in Spain. Every winter go there, then come back, no need for a central heating system at all:)