Electricity price predictions

MattEngineer · 2021-12-03T18:39:26Z

When the energy cap comes up for renewal I think it will rise to 26.5p per unit, any thoughts of the collective?

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02/12/2025 3:24 pm

Posted by: @jeff

↑

It begs the question if you don't mind, do you have some suggested specific options that could be followed to help the fuel poor in any of those specific areas you mentioned?

Before I dive into the issue of a strategy which helps the fuel poor,
can I just take a step back and point out there are already 'alternatives' for future energy strategy.

I'll put Energy Strategy into three broad categories.
Please say if you'd like me to expand any of these abbreviations:

1: The existing status quo.

Policy direction is led by DESNZ, and they also implement specific actions derived from that policy such as

the BUS to encourage HP installation, incl grants based on MCS criteria
SSES, which will soon announce the Consumer-Led Flexibility scheme to switch-off domestic appliances during times of high demand
EV and charger subsidies

Planning implementation for NSIPs (above 50MW) are assessed by HMIP, and signed off by SoS for ESNZ.
These usually incorporate some compulsory purchase and/or statutory elements.

Ofgem meets with representatives of the energy sector who operate under licences issued by them.

DNOs produce their RIIO documents, and ask Ofgem to allow the costs they require to implement the targets in those Agreements.

Energy Suppliers discuss with Ofgem the obligations they must meet, incl

levies for ECO projects
retrofitting housing stock
smart meter roll-out
Use of Service contracts with DNOs and Transmission companies
tariff structures

Consumers have no direct input to any of the above, apart from electing the government.

Lobbying happens.
Reports get written.

2: The imminent future energy strategy, as being implemented and proposed by NESO, under specific direction from Ofgem.

Ie this scenario is based on the Energy Act (Nov'23)

NESO is the grid operator (electricity, gas and heat networks).
They have been given a mandate to

decarbonise the electricity grid by 2030
attain Net Zero by 2050
electrify transportation by whatever time-frame gets set by government.

Ofgem has also awarded NESO the task to set up Regional Energy Strategic Plan organisations.
They are to implement the national objectives defined by NESO, within their geographical areas, which havediffering constraints and resources.

GB is divided into 14 RESP regions, each of which is to have a Strategic Board of 16 members, chaired by a NESO representative.

Six Members on each Strategic Board will be drawn from Local Authorities. They can be elected Councillors or council officers, but not both.
There is no funding available for salaries or training.
Most 'training in the ways of NESO' has already occurred via webinars.

The initial Transitory RESPs will create the RIIO-ED3 Agreements for the DNOs.

The fully-fledged RESP Strategic Boards won't emerge until 2027, and will produce a Regional Energy Plan document every three years.

Any RESP Board which doesn't produce a Plan that meets the targets/requirements, will have an Energy Plan implemented onto their region by Ofgem.

Much less opportunity for lobbying and reports (unless NESO asks)

3: Other alternative energy strategies, which may include aspects of:

greater implementation of Community Energy projects
innovation, incl energy technology which doesn't yet exist
unaffordability of either of the first two categories
consumers help themselves to energy solutions, incl possible answers to Fuel Poverty
Local Government programmes emerge
different tariff mechanisms

etc

In other words, there is already going to be an alternative energy strategy implemented, and it's presently out for Consultation by NESO.

Unless consumers have been part of the RESP Forums and webinars to date, it's unlikely they will be able to participate due to the complexity.
But I'm happy to help if you get stuck on the Consultation Document or online forms (by Qualtrics).

I haven't (yet) posted any of the slides/graphics which explain/expand Category-2, as I've tried to keep this brief.
@jamespa is watching and I don't want him remarking on my verbosity!

Let's remember that this Topic is on Electricity Pricing.
If responses here go into other subject-matter, then let's take this post of mine into a new Topic...

This post was modified 35 minutes ago by Transparent

This post was modified 3 minutes ago by Transparent

Save energy... recycle electrons!

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