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Electricity price predictions

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(@scalextrix)
Estimable Member Member
Joined: 11 months ago
Posts: 73
 

@lucia I think my point was even if it is true, the interconnection is still valuable for both nations, and any scary stories are to be put into context.

 

But thanks for your background, helps to see the truth.



   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
Illustrious Member Moderator
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 2466
 

The North Sea Interconnector is more beneficial for companies who generate here in Britain and then export.

The Norwegian co-owner, Stattnet, has software called Nordpool. which allows the seller's electricity to be re-sold for the best price elsewhere on mainland Europe.

Electricity coming the other way can only be destined for GB or Ireland, which is why it costs somewhat more to import in this direction.


Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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(@lucia)
Prominent Member Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 310
 

@JamesPa

Given what you say about the day ahead price being an unreliable indicator of wholesale price it's thus possible that this change in ratio is linked to a genuine change in wholesale price, but we don't have any evidence to support that

 

I am enrolled on an energy trading course later this month. I shall keep my note book handy. Yep, into the heart of the beast! 🫢 😁



   
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(@lucia)
Prominent Member Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 310
 

@transparent The Norwegian co-owner, Stattnet, has software called Nordpool. which allows the seller's electricity to be re-sold for the best price elsewhere on mainland Europe.

Nordpool is a collective trading enterprise owned by Euronext and a TSO holding company which is collectively owned by ALL the Baltic TSOs as well as all of Scandinavian TSOs including Fingrid. Every region of the European grid has these. They all come together under the European market (which includes the UK). 



   
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(@lucia)
Prominent Member Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 310
 

@jamespa Many claim we have the highest electricity prices in Europe (although so far as I can tell thats not actually true, but also as far as I can tell we areamongst the more expensive) yet its cost effective for suppliers to sell to mainland Europe.  How does that work out.  Also if they do export, who pays the transmission charge and do we benefit from reciprocal purchases.

We pretty much do have the highest electricity charges. Germany comes a close 2nd.

It's not about 'cost effectiveness' so much as a half hourly balancing mechanism as that is how often electricity is traded AND the grid 'supply' has to match the grid 'consumption'. Yes, if suppliers can sell elsewhere they do. Frequently. Sometimes we can buy electricity 'abroad' cheaper than 'at home'. 

Every morning a nice German trader sends me images of interconnector trades. See below. Green is net buyer, Orange is net seller. Britain is often (but not always) a buyer. It's not about selling 'what's left over' it's about what's available at the best price at any given (half hourly) time. It's complicated but that's our privatised energy markets. Which Britain pretty much initiated. 

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(@old_scientist)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 232
 

Posted by: @tim441

I would've thought further encouragement for households to install batteries (with or without solar) would make sense. It would help with grid balancing as well as build resilience at small cost to government. 

I agree @tim441. I would love to see planning regulations for all new developments of any size (say, more than 5 properties) be required to fit 3-4kWp of solar and a 5kWh battery as part of any new planning permissions. The additional cost to the overall new build costs are insignificant and will be of substantial benefit to the home owner by way of lower bills, and as you state will benefit the local grid. Seems the simplest was to get localised battery storage implemented en mass in the UK (ASHPs too), and is so much easier to design in as part of a new build than to try to retrofit the moment the property first sells.

 


Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
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(@lucia)
Prominent Member Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 310
 

@tim441 One thing we can be sure of is that whatever contracts say the Interconnectors from Europe will not supply UK if there is any sort of power shortage for home countries - whether Norway, Netherlands, France etc. Indeed EU will doubtless pressure for "EU First".

That's not actually true and Britain is very much integrated into EU/European energy markets. Indeed, in 2 weeks time I'm at a conference in Brussels with various EU TSOs and our very own British NESO. [🤓] 

What happens is usually about the 'highest bidder' thus last year during the infamous German 'dunkelflaute', there was a bit of an uproar in the southern region of Sweden (which has locational electricity pricing - each region pays different prices) because the electricity was exported to (desperate) Germany for big $$ and this was reflected in the hugely escalated prices in the Swedish south. 

The German energy minister was effusive about Sweden's 'solidarity' whereas Swedish media was full of complaints that Germany had abandoned nuclear at the 'expense' of Sweden. 

We're still in the neoliberal age money is king.... 



   
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(@tim441)
Prominent Member Contributor
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 325
 

@lucia we shall see! 

I'm looking forward to dunkelflaute and similar tight supplies. Whether my batteries will be sufficient is unknown - but the woodburner plus batteries should get me through planned or unplanned outages - even if I then have to scramble to recharge at high rates.

I have no faith that our government (of any colour this century) or NESO have done enough or are in sufficient control to ensure supply. There is no sign of any proper plan to deal with it over any timescale.


Listed Grade 2 building with large modern extension.
LG Therma V 16kw ASHP
Underfloor heating + Rads
8kw pv solar
3 x 8.2kw GivEnergy batteries
1 x GivEnergy Gen1 hybrid 5.0kw inverter
Manual changeover EPS
MG4 EV


   
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(@old_scientist)
Honorable Member Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 232
 

Posted by: @lucia

@tim441 One thing we can be sure of is that whatever contracts say the Interconnectors from Europe will not supply UK if there is any sort of power shortage for home countries - whether Norway, Netherlands, France etc. Indeed EU will doubtless pressure for "EU First".

That's not actually true and Britain is very much integrated into EU/European energy markets. Indeed, in 2 weeks time I'm at a conference in Brussels with various EU TSOs and our very own British NESO. [🤓] 

What happens is usually about the 'highest bidder' thus last year during the infamous German 'dunkelflaute', there was a bit of an uproar in the southern region of Sweden (which has locational electricity pricing - each region pays different prices) because the electricity was exported to (desperate) Germany for big $$ and this was reflected in the hugely escalated prices in the Swedish south. 

The German energy minister was effusive about Sweden's 'solidarity' whereas Swedish media was full of complaints that Germany had abandoned nuclear at the 'expense' of Sweden. 

We're still in the neoliberal age money is king.... 

I remember reading about that at the time.

So long as energy is just a commodity that can be traded to the highest bidder...

I don't have the answers. What I do have from reading the comments here from others who are far more knowledgable than I, is an understanding that it is complex. We have worked hard to get in a position where we are largely protected against future price shocks, but I appreciate most do not have the means or knowledge to do this so are completely at the whim of the markets, or the government bailing us out with price caps which we all pay for as it's our money they are giving back to us.

 


This post was modified 2 hours ago 3 times by Old_Scientist

Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
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(@diverted-energy)
Estimable Member Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 76
 

@old_scientist totally agree but 5kwh battery is a complete waste of money.

Taking away the Inverter requirements, 20-100% and you're left with 3kwh.

I install large capacity batteries and 15kwh should be the minimum considering we are electrifying our lives.

At least twice daily consumption in battery capacity for 1) longevity due to better C rates, 2) lower cycle count and 3) more night energy stored for daytime heating.

The number of installations I end up ripping out expensive Inverters and batteries to swap for a cheaper very capable Solis with 15kwh to 65kwh batteries.

End users quickly realise they gave been overcharged and mis-sold a tiny battery when reality kicks in.

3.6kwh max nighttime power and low capacity.



   
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(@diverted-energy)
Estimable Member Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 76
 

A typical Sunday session..

Screenshot 20250810 175242 Home Assistant

Well.. we're off..

Sundays of free leccy through September, hopefully October and into Winter.

Screenshot 20250902 105059 EDF
Screenshot 20250902 154935 EDF

This post was modified 1 hour ago by Diverted.Energy

   
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(@diverted-energy)
Estimable Member Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 76
 

@scalextrix what about the other 3?



   
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