@toodles interesting. This is just one view. Odd Greg says they don’t make money on energy retail. But Kraken makes money. The HP business is new and in growth. They say the Irish HP manufacturing business doesn’t have a P&L, but that’s not surprising as they don’t sell the cosy to anyone else. So the costs will be in the HP sales side. 
Whilst this is one view, it would be good to see a comparison to another energy business. I’m sure they’ve all had a torrid time recently.

@julianc you may disagree.. but

How is it that Wholesale tends to be more expensive than the price HP tariffs are at during lowest rates.

Someone is paying for the difference..

@diverted-energy Equally well, the 15 pence rate for Octopus Energy Outgoing Fixed is higher than the Cosy lowest band rate that I use to charge my Powerwall battery (27 KWh capacity) when solar energy lets me down; I very rarely use any juice during the higher rates so, as such, I suppose that OE are losing revenue from my account. Regards, Toodles.

@diverted-energy so that’s where I think you are wrong. Overnight prices can be 2p/kWh. I don’t have a detailed tracker, but on average they are less than 7p/kWh that I pay. Likewise the 27p/kWh I pay for day rate is above the quoted national rate. On average, the price dips in the morning and mid afternoon and then later evening, when Octopus Cosy gets its three 15p/kWh times. 
So these different rates makes sense if you can time shift you’d use - we charge the EVs & run the dishwasher at night in winter. Or use the solar PV in summer.

Attached is wholesale price for today that I just pulled off the National Grid Live website. This is price per MWh so you have to divide by 1000 for a kWh cost. It varies between 14p and 6p/ kWh. Now this is wholesale, so you have to add business costs and profit. But you get the idea of the peaks and troughs. 

Unfortunate that OFGEM increased prices again from October 2025, except gas which seems to have gone down a tad, but one small glimmer for those about to transition to electric heating, and who then have no need for a gas connection; the gas standing charge increase was roughly twice the electricity standing charge increase.

It would be nice to think this was the early impact of people leaving gas behind, but I doubt it.  Who knows what is behind OFGEM price caps, but it does save us ~£127 a year guaranteed by disconnecting.

I say just put all electric standing charges on gas, it won't hurt dual fuel customers at all (most people) and will save the electric mob guaranteed amounts.

Posted by: @julianc

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@diverted-energy so that’s where I think you are wrong. Overnight prices can be 2p/kWh. I don’t have a detailed tracker, but on average they are less than 7p/kWh that I pay. Likewise the 27p/kWh I pay for day rate is above the quoted national rate. On average, the price dips in the morning and mid afternoon and then later evening, when Octopus Cosy gets its three 15p/kWh times. 
So these different rates makes sense if you can time shift you’d use - we charge the EVs & run the dishwasher at night in winter. Or use the solar PV in summer.

Attached is wholesale price for today that I just pulled off the National Grid Live website. This is price per MWh so you have to divide by 1000 for a kWh cost. It varies between 14p and 6p/ kWh. Now this is wholesale, so you have to add business costs and profit. But you get the idea of the peaks and troughs. 

You need to be a bit careful when looking at those 30min prices on the Nation Grid website, although they are useful. 

This isn't even the wholesale price that Octopus pays for the electricity they sell to you. 

All suppliers including Octopus use a combination of power purchase agreements and hedging to buy the majority of their consumers energy demand well in advance. 

What you are looking at is the price of a small amount of energy that is traded short term in those 30min slots. 

Remember all the energy suppliers that didn't buy  much energy in advance or hedge went bust... That model will never return and tarrif like Agile with real term exposure will always be a niche offering. Even with Agile customers are protected with a cap.

The whole cost and price analysis is a bit of a minefield, as is attempting to ascertain the impact of any changes that could be made. 

Posted by: @scalextrix

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Unfortunate that OFGEM increased prices again from October 2025, except gas which seems to have gone down a tad, but one small glimmer for those about to transition to electric heating, and who then have no need for a gas connection; the gas standing charge increase was roughly twice the electricity standing charge increase.

It would be nice to think this was the early impact of people leaving gas behind, but I doubt it.  Who knows what is behind OFGEM price caps, but it does save us ~£127 a year guaranteed by disconnecting.

I say just put all electric standing charges on gas, it won't hurt dual fuel customers at all (most people) and will save the electric mob guaranteed amounts.

The gas standing charge went up as some of the network costs have been moved from the gas unit rate to the gas standing charge. 

Hence the corresponding fall in the gas unit rate. 

There will be winners and loosers.

@julianc and over the next 3 to 5yrs, from the remaining 5 Nuclear power plants reducing output from 5yrs ago already by 80% to whats left, 4 more scheduled to close pushing higher Baseline Gas generation- even at night.

The graph you posted shows a minimum price of £60, my maths dividing that by 1000 is 6p? High Pressure weather reducing Wind output it is regularly over £90.

Electricity Wholesale is only cheap when the Wind is blowing. I'm happy with our £9.60 Direct Debit on Economy7 fixed for two years.

Advising others on tariffs who don't have Solar or Batteries, the trend is heading up as two year contracts are dearer than one year. Already predicted from £1755 to £1850 from April next year.

My gut feeling is the 15p daytime export Octopus pay will be reduced and they'll come a tipping point that 7p EV won't be viable.

But, we'll see. We all have our own thoughts and none of us can predict the future.

If only Tony Blair had listened to his own words along with those that followed and built the 14x Nuclear power stations by 2025, to avoid the mess we are in today.

Seems Centrica are converting Rough to extraction from Storage so where is the UK going to store cheaply purchased Gas when the only tiny 12day Storage we have is no longer available.

The future is Bright.. the future is!!

More decommissioned Nuclear, more Gas burning at no doubt higher prices.

More EVs creating nighttime demand as well of us, with Batteries charging at night and Heat Pumps.

EDF just started Sunday Saver and by buying in 1kwh per night at 12p will give me unlimited 16hrs free electricity next Sunday where we'll likely pull 120kwh from Grid and be £35 every weekend over Winter.

We're already at £300 credited this year. With 65kwh batteries, the car, washing, drying and free Hot Water, looks like a very cheap Winter for us.

Posted by: @editor

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Posted by: @jamespa

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You should seriously look at better tariffs.  I pay an average of 19p against a standard tarrif in my area of 26.5p

We can’t get a smart meter installed, so we’re stuck with standard tariffs.

But here’s what I really can’t get my head around: we’re on the most expensive electricity tariff in the UK by region — “North Wales & Mersey.” 

The thing is, we don’t live in North Wales and we’re two hours away from Merseyside. Yet we’re penalised with the highest unit rates in the country simply because of how the regions are carved up. If you’re unlucky enough to live in the wrong distribution region, you pay more to run your heat pump, regardless of how efficient your system is. Wild to me. 

Clean heating and electricity use shouldn’t be a postcode lottery. 

the post code lottery is only one thing that is very wrong with our energy system! London should be paying lots more on the SC under present rules but lots of people live there and vote. 

But on a personal level can you get economy 7 and a battery? It was the only tariff available to us when we first got the battery, but it was much better than the standard rate. We got the battery on principle to add to our solar but the finances (which we always do as well) was a payback time of ~7years, which is OK.

@editor I feel your pain Brother! I have a similar issue for this Winter regarding choosing the fuel to use for space heating and sadly the oil won out by nearly 50% cheaper. The heat pump has been demoted to an expensive water heater using cheap electricity during the night.

I have one of two options:

1. Run EV all year with oil in Winter

2. Pay out another £12k to £15K for solar and batteries to make the heat pump viable (currently under review) so I can have both EV and heat pump

With the way electricity is going, ever increasing curtailment costs with each new renewable project built, generating your own power is looking more attractive. I just need to see if I can get the money together some how. I really do think Donald Trump has got a point, its a big con!

Posted by: @technogeek

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. I really do think Donald Trump has got a point, its a big con!

Sorry that statement ignores the science.

The politicians need to manipulate the short term incentives for sure (the medium/long term incentives are undeniable) but there is absolutely no scientific doubt about climate change and the devastating effects it will have if we don't tackle it.  

@jamespa You beat me to it James!