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Electricity price predictions

 
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Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring & Providers
Last Post by Jeff 34 minutes ago
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
Noble Member Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 543
27/11/2025 12:54 pm  

Posted by: @scalextrix
↑

@jeff I'm on Octopus Tracker, recent price range has been 12.44 to 26.45p/kWh.  I suppose the average rate has been around 21.5p.

If price cap gets 4p cheaper in todays prices, it's not going to be worth customers taking the risk on Tracker.  So I assume Tracker and other tariffs may be recalculated, and market competition may play a role in the energy providers decisions.

Of course Octopus might decide they don't care, but as it's a lower risk product for them (no hedging costs) I assume they will reflect the reductions into Tracker from at least their newer contracts.

Fortunately for me my Tracker expires within a few days before the 1st April so I will be able to choose whether to stick or twist.

Yep, that makes total sense, competition will be the big driver I am sure. 

For Tracker

"We review the Tracker formula and standing charge every three months, each time the energy price cap updates, to make sure Tracker prices fairly reflect things like taxes and levies, network maintenance and meter rental, as well as energy regulation." 

So you should already be seeing changes every quarter

The one caveat is that the price cap is backward looking over a prior 3 month period for unit rates. 

Your tracker is real time for wholesale electricity. 

Hence your costs over winter on tracker may be higher or lower than the price cap. I think that is the nature of Agile and Tracker. 

I have never looked to see what octopus do in terms of power purchase agreements etc with Tracker in the background or if they really purchase energy every day. Does it say anything in the FAQs? They may charge you a tracking rate but what do they actually pay? 


This post was modified 1 hour ago 3 times by Jeff

   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
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Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 543
27/11/2025 1:39 pm  

Posted by: @editor
↑

@Jeff, how much other "fat" is loaded into the tariff... I find the subject fascinating.

I personally suspect quite a lot of fat given the number of commercial companies involved and the arbitrary drive for a date IMHO. 

Many suppliers have said more care needs to be taken in phasing work, including Octopus, to not cripple customers on cost. 

This isn't simply good renewable  related guys vs the bad fossil fuel guys. 

The companies involved in renewable activities are just as cut throat I suspect, maximising income from grid upgrades, maximising government subsidy, CfD etc... Hence one but not the only reason zonal pricing is ruled out. 

I agree with @transparent. There are an awful lot of "cooks" across a lot of organisations. This not only costs money, but I am not convinced they actually add sufficient value. @transparent will know this better than me given his involvement.

I agree with his comment about regulator scope creep. I have seen this first hand working in government with other regulators, setting up regional teams and getting involved in delivery/policy activities. Sometimes but not always with the express permission of government. It is very common. 

 

 

 

 

 



   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
Noble Member Member
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 543
27/11/2025 1:44 pm  

Posted by: @transparent
↑

Posted by: @jeff
↑

The public will be totally confused if we end parliament without bills £300 lower in real terms.

Are we ending Parliament @jeff ?

I must've missed that Topic.
I thought it was just the MCS we were seeking to no longer be in place. 

That would be interesting...

Can you imagine what net zero would be like under the conservatives or reform? 

 



   
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