Posted by: @scalextrix

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@jeff I'm on Octopus Tracker, recent price range has been 12.44 to 26.45p/kWh.  I suppose the average rate has been around 21.5p.

If price cap gets 4p cheaper in todays prices, it's not going to be worth customers taking the risk on Tracker.  So I assume Tracker and other tariffs may be recalculated, and market competition may play a role in the energy providers decisions.

Of course Octopus might decide they don't care, but as it's a lower risk product for them (no hedging costs) I assume they will reflect the reductions into Tracker from at least their newer contracts.

Fortunately for me my Tracker expires within a few days before the 1st April so I will be able to choose whether to stick or twist.

Yep, that makes total sense, competition will be the big driver I am sure. 

For Tracker

"We review the Tracker formula and standing charge every three months, each time the energy price cap updates, to make sure Tracker prices fairly reflect things like taxes and levies, network maintenance and meter rental, as well as energy regulation." 

So you should already be seeing changes every quarter

The one caveat is that the price cap is backward looking over a prior 3 month period for unit rates. 

Your tracker is real time for wholesale electricity. 

Hence your costs over winter on tracker may be higher or lower than the price cap. I think that is the nature of Agile and Tracker. 

I have never looked to see what octopus do in terms of power purchase agreements etc with Tracker in the background or if they really purchase energy every day. Does it say anything in the FAQs? They may charge you a tracking rate but what do they actually pay? 

Posted by: @editor

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@Jeff, how much other "fat" is loaded into the tariff... I find the subject fascinating.

I personally suspect quite a lot of fat given the number of commercial companies involved and the arbitrary drive for a date IMHO. 

Many suppliers have said more care needs to be taken in phasing work, including Octopus, to not cripple customers on cost. 

This isn't simply good renewable  related guys vs the bad fossil fuel guys. 

The companies involved in renewable activities are just as cut throat I suspect, maximising income from grid upgrades, maximising government subsidy, CfD etc... Hence one but not the only reason zonal pricing is ruled out. 

I agree with @transparent. There are an awful lot of "cooks" across a lot of organisations. This not only costs money, but I am not convinced they actually add sufficient value. @transparent will know this better than me given his involvement.

I agree with his comment about regulator scope creep. I have seen this first hand working in government with other regulators, setting up regional teams and getting involved in delivery/policy activities. Sometimes but not always with the express permission of government. It is very common. 

Posted by: @transparent

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Posted by: @jeff

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The public will be totally confused if we end parliament without bills £300 lower in real terms.

Are we ending Parliament @jeff ?

I must've missed that Topic.
I thought it was just the MCS we were seeking to no longer be in place. 

That would be interesting...

Can you imagine what net zero would be like under the conservatives or reform? 

@jeff to be honest I'd forgotten that they adjust for the quarterly updates, so that's good news.

I don't know how they run Tracker, but I would think if they can forward buy volume cheaply they will and fallback to spot if prices are higher (why wouldn't they?).  I guess the point for them is they aren't obligated to forward hedge like they would be on standard tariffs.

Posted by: @jeff

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Can you imagine what net zero would be like under the conservatives or reform? 

Interestingly, I can !

I'm in long-term active discussion with elected members from Parish Council level right up to MPs!

That allows me to hear what they'd like to achieve wrt energy matters,
and to provide the technical background they'd need to carry out such strategies.

Of course, that cuts both ways.
I also pick up comments here on the Forum and send relevant links to Councillors.

Electricity pricing and poverty alleviation are of great concern to those we have elected.

As for Reform, there's a big difference between their national strategy of abandoning Net Zero targets,
and making better use of local renewable generation.
Reform Councillors are more in favour of effective use of natural resources than the national media would have us believe.

Posted by: @transparent

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Posted by: @jeff

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Can you imagine what net zero would be like under the conservatives or reform? 

Interestingly, I can !

I'm in long-term active discussion with elected members from Parish Council level right up to MPs!

That allows me to hear what they'd like to achieve wrt energy matters,
and to provide the technical background they'd need to carry out such strategies.

 

Of course, that cuts both ways.
I also pick up comments here on the Forum and send relevant links to Councillors.

Electricity pricing and poverty alleviation are of great concern to those we have elected.

As for Reform, there's a big difference between their national strategy of abandoning Net Zero targets,
and making better use of local renewable generation.
Reform Councillors are more in favour of effective use of natural resources than the national media would have us believe.

Good to know @transparent 

What do you think reform would do differently nationally from the chats you have had? 

Can you share that or is it confidential? 

Posted by: @jeff

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What do you think reform would do differently nationally from the chats you have had? 

Can you share that or is it confidential? 

Well let's start by telling you that since I wrote that post yesterday, I've replied to an invitation from a Reform County Councillor asking for a meeting. 😊 

In general, Reform seems to be against centralised control (nanny state).
The flip side of the coin is that they'd like to facilitate society to do more for itself.

So if I were to bring up the issue of MCS oversight of Heat Pump installations, a Reform member isn't likely to support their continued role.
But I'd expect them also to request I show them evidence of HP installations failing.
They're not just going to blindly take my word for it.

That's why this Forum becomes important.
It has many case studies, and instances of Members helping each other to resolve the problems, for which I can forward the URL.

Reform also tends to have a high proportion of ex-military people.

They have an inbuilt sense of 'security', and would very quickly recognise the threat of having 'foreign investment' in our energy sector.
Thus they'd be asking detailed questions about the Iberian outage of 28th April, and whether GB has similar risks in our electricity network.

Expect them to favour small home-based battery storage, rather than BESS-farms which are controlled remotely.
Community Energy is also likely to meet with their approval, once I've explained how it might work.

I find it takes time to establish rapport with Councillors.
I take note of regional news, and identify when there is an energy-based planning proposal which adversely affects the local community.

That gets turned into a 'Briefing' (PDF) which I send to the Councillor(s) representing that ward, and the Chair of the Parish Councils.

Invariably that results in a request for further background information.
The sort of post which @lucia tends to upload here is typical of what they're interested to learn.

The time to communicate with Councillors is now... not when the next election is due.

Posted by: @transparent

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So if I were to bring up the issue of MCS oversight of Heat Pump installations, a Reform member isn't likely to support their continued role.

But I'd expect them also to request I show them evidence of HP installations failing.
They're not just going to blindly take my word for it.

Really, bear in mind their policies.  I think they will not care about evidence because it supports the ideology.  So far as I can tell from a long discussion I had with three of our local representatives, facts and figures are secondary.

Posted by: @transparent

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Expect them to favour small home-based battery storage, rather than BESS-farms which are controlled remotely.

er why, given that net zero is 'stupid' and therefore battery storage unnecessary.

Posted by: @transparent

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Community Energy is also likely to meet with their approval, once I've explained how it might work.

Surely only so long as it doesnt involve wind farms, solar panels , heat pumps or EVs.

Im not sure why you think that this particular councillor is going to help the UK develop a coherent strategy for dealing with the effects of electrification, surely its better that it causes chaos and/or high bills as that helps justify the pre-ordained decision.

Posted by: @transparent

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Posted by: @transparent

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Expect them to favour small home-based battery storage, rather than BESS-farms which are controlled remotely.

er why, given that net zero is 'stupid' and therefore battery storage unnecessary.

There is a difference between no longer pursuing Net Zero and making best use of energy resources.
Here's an example of how that might play out:

Last week I needed to identify the load capacity on a section of the 400kV National grid.
I did that by looking at the capacity of the two Grid Supply Points (GSPs) at each end of the route.

Here's a section of those results:

Let me interpret those column headers:

Export limit is basically the rated power of the transformer cluster in that location. It's the amount of power it can deliver to meet demand.

Reverse power is what can be accepted by the transformers from generation sites and 'uploaded' to the Transmission Grid.

Connected generation is the total output of generation (eg from solar and wind farms) which has been accepted for connection at that GSP and is operational

Capacity Queue is the total of pending generation which has been approved for connection, but isn't yet live

Whatever electricity generation cannot be passed onto the Transmission Grid is 'discarded', using an ANM command to generation sites to curtail their output.

Using batteries to store that electricity is a common-sense decision.

Commercial BESS usually requires grid-upgrades, for which consumers must pay through increased bills.
It's the Net Zero policies which make commercial BESS financially attractive.

So if Government scraps Net Zero, you either waste the energy, or else you facilitate a mechanism to store it locally.

That's why Reform Members are likely to be more in favour of home-based batteries.
It's a vote-winner, and it prevents bills rising further.

[Please post here to tell me if the above table doesn't display properly for you. I can turn it into a graphic]

@transparent I’m afraid the table doesn’t display at all well for me but, they just be because I’m magnifying the image so much to see it! Regards, Toodles.

@transparent ok for me on iPad 17:34

Posted by: @transparent

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Posted by: @transparent

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Posted by: @transparent

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Expect them to favour small home-based battery storage, rather than BESS-farms which are controlled remotely.

er why, given that net zero is 'stupid' and therefore battery storage unnecessary.

There is a difference between no longer pursuing Net Zero and making best use of energy resources.
Here's an example of how that might play out:

 

Last week I needed to identify the load capacity on a section of the 400kV National grid.
I did that by looking at the capacity of the two Grid Supply Points (GSPs) at each end of the route.

Here's a section of those results:

Export limit (demand)	Reverse power limit, winter	Reverse power limit, summer	Connected generation	Generation Capacity avail	Capacity queue
329.2MW	-257MW	-175MW	424.8MW	0	893MW
395.6MW	-414MW	-269MW	505.3MW	0	1208MW

 

Let me interpret those column headers:

Export limit is basically the rated power of the transformer cluster in that location. It's the amount of power it can deliver to meet demand.

Reverse power is what can be accepted by the transformers from generation sites and 'uploaded' to the Transmission Grid.

Connected generation is the total output of generation (eg from solar and wind farms) which has been accepted for connection at that GSP and is operational

Capacity Queue is the total of pending generation which has been approved for connection, but isn't yet live

 

Whatever electricity generation cannot be passed onto the Transmission Grid is 'discarded', using an ANM command to generation sites to curtail their output.

Using batteries to store that electricity is a common-sense decision.

Commercial BESS usually requires grid-upgrades, for which consumers must pay through increased bills.
It's the Net Zero policies which make commercial BESS financially attractive.

So if Government scraps Net Zero, you either waste the energy, or else you facilitate a mechanism to store it locally.

That's why Reform Members are likely to be more in favour of home-based batteries.
It's a vote-winner, and it prevents bills rising further.

 

[Please post here to tell me if the above table doesn't display properly for you. I can turn it into a graphic]

Good luck with that argument.  It takes more than 160 characters to explain and involves understanding complex relationships or trusting experts.  Batteries are associated with solar panels, in fact that is how they are sold and solar panels are part of net stupid zero.  End of.

Honestly I cannot see any point at all in trying to explain technical facts to such people.  The same comment applies to some other politicians, for the avoidance of doubt.