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Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring & Providers
Last Post by JamesPa 1 hour ago
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Transparent
 Transparent
(@transparent)
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14/11/2025 2:39 pm  

On 7th Nov NESO issued their usual weekly Newsletter.

One item linked to their LinkedIn page.
The opening paragraph and the statistics in the video-clip on that page are relevant to this topic on pricing.

image

The information being presented will have been derived from NESO's Connections Reform Process, which started in May'25.

We can assume that the 800GW figure in the video is the total of the "offers to connect" which NESO were presented with.

I have therefore added three columns to the Grid Capacity histogram which I've posted to this forum over the years:

TransmissionCapacity25

Start at the rightmost columns in blue.

The first three blue columns are taken from National Grid sources.
They're public announcements, but must have reasonable accuracy in order to comply with Stock Market regulations.

The rightmost column is that Offers to Connect queue which NESO calculated through the Connections Reform program.

Note that offers to connect are in addition to the existing base of available generation.
So those columns don't start at zero.

 

Based on NESO's LinkedIn comments, we can then create the two green columns for

  • decarbonisation of the grid by 2030
  • meeting Net Zero for all GB energy processes by 2050

 

I've started those columns at zero because that's the implication from NESO's wording, but I may be wrong.
In any case a large proportion of existing generation will have been decommissioned by then.

The other columns on the histogram can be substantiated from DUKES, chapter-5,
which is published annually in July.

 

As we consider and discuss these statistics, let's remember why NESO assess the need for 200GW of generation (and storage) capacity to decarbonise the grid by 2030.

Unlike my earlier orange columns, NESO's figure takes into account that all of that generation will be derived from renewable sources.

Thus their first green column isn't necessarily in conflict with my orange column for 2023.
They're basically telling us that to guarantee 70GW-ish of actual electricity, we need to start with 200GW of potential generation.


This post was modified 2 hours ago 5 times by Transparent

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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 JamesPa
(@jamespa)
Illustrious Member Moderator
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 3389
14/11/2025 3:19 pm  

Posted by: @transparent
↑

They're basically telling us that to guarantee 70GW-ish of actual electricity, we need to start with 200GW of potential generation.

I guess that isnt too much of a surprise that there is a fairly large ratio if its largely renewables, given that renewables are rather variable in output.  How much nuclear is there in the mix and tidal for that matter both of which are more reliable.

Does it suggest that there will be some cheap electricity to be had and also some very expensive electricity, so those who can manage their loads or have batteries will be still be able to play games, much like now!


4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.


   
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