Electricity price predictions

MattEngineer · 2021-12-03T18:39:26Z

When the energy cap comes up for renewal I think it will rise to 26.5p per unit, any thoughts of the collective?

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Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring & Providers

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16/10/2025 10:37 am

Posted by: @scalextrix

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As far as I can tell it's not really infrastructure upgrades to cope with renewables or recent CfDs that are driving the costs.

I hear what you say about the levies which are loaded onto the electricity bills.

But I still think the infrastructure upgrades are the biggest problem in the long term.

1: Government could at any stage delete or remove those levies, and our bills will fall.

But if National Grid spends £30bn on grid upgrades, then we're still required to pay that back over 10+ years and we can't get out of that commitment.

The moment that electricity prices soared was Spring '22.
That coincides with the Ofgem Decision to reduce the costs of grid-connections for generators - the Access and Forward-Looking Charges.

Ofgem not only issued the Directive to put a greater proportion of the infrastructure costs onto consumers, but also approved the steep rise in bills which the Electricity Suppliers needed.

2: There's no effective 'brake' in place to halt (foreign owned) companies adding yet more renewable generation and storage to our GB grid.

They have no obligation to first supply British consumers, but can use marine interconnectors to export anywhere across the Europe-wide 50Hz grid.

I can provide examples if required.

3: I'm amazed that 'Government' still suggest lower bills as a reason for implementing yet another strategy.

I keep waiting for that moment when the Secretary of State eventually realises that his staff have no idea of how to achieve that goal.

Save energy... recycle electrons!

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Batpred

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16/10/2025 12:11 pm

Posted by: @jeff

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There are a lot of additional costs coming in the next few years that may make the social policies look like peanuts.

Without getting too much into politics, given that the fossil fuel lobby is always very quick to try to shield behind cries that the transition is not affordable for the less well off (and for fairness), something needs to be done. But is this not what general taxation would be aimed at?

Perhaps it is actually cheaper to invest in grid upgrades than to hope that most people will be changing consumption habits and spend much time to understand the ins and outs of various technologies. And the growing percentage of households renting. with less influence on what is made available to them also needs to get a fair deal.

Innovation is continuing for sure. Personally, being able to learn and play with this is great (other markets are much more closed to it), but the major decisions are also needed. That helps most consumers to be free to just consume.

The thought of politicians getting very close to what seems to be an agreement that x increase in cost is needed to deliver y like grid upgrades frightens me. How many of them have any background to understand the science and contracts required to maintain electricity on tap? And how many are willing to push the rules for the transition which will also turn key players into marginal, with different roles? A free market economy is not expected to give those players guaranteed income. The consumer being defended, for it to even out, fossil fuel based generators have to give something up..

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