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Electricity price predictions

MattEngineer · 2021-12-03T18:39:26Z

When the energy cap comes up for renewal I think it will rise to 26.5p per unit, any thoughts of the collective?

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Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring & Providers

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Jeff

(@jeff)

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Joined: 5 years ago

Posts: 559

04/08/2022 7:52 am

Confirmation of quarterly updates

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/ofgem-confirms-changes-price-cap-methodology-and-frequency-ahead-new-rate-be-announced-later-month

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HughF

(@hughf)

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Joined: 4 years ago

Posts: 489

04/08/2022 8:22 am

I'm actually not going to be in such a rush to move over from a smart prepayment meter as I was before the price cap increases - at least we're protected from stupid direct debit increases and the issue of having to claw back unused funds. The standing charge is marginally more but that just blends into the noise nowadays.

And I can top it up online with a cashback credit card 😀

Off grid on the isle of purbeck
2.4kW solar, 15kWh Seplos Mason, Outback power systems 3kW inverter/charger, solid fuel heating with air/air for shoulder months, 10 acres of heathland/woods.

My wife’s house: 1946 3 bed end of terrace in Somerset, ASHP with rads + UFH, triple glazed, retrofit IWI in troublesome rooms, small rear extension.

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ChickenBig

(@chickenbig)

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Joined: 4 years ago

Posts: 292

04/08/2022 11:33 am

Posted by: @diverted-energy

Days of cheap energy are over..

The spot-price of gas is somewhat high at the moment, currently 373p/therm. 1 therm = 29.3kWh, which assuming 55% efficiency of a CCGT power station means electricity fuel costs are 23p/kWh. However I am not sure what the relationship is between wholesale gas prices and the price paid by power stations, so that may just be an upper bound on the electricity prices.

At these prices it starts to make smokeless coal look like the (heating) fuel of the future; 25kg of ecoal could work out at around 7p/kWh. Plus coal can be stored in bulk. Perhaps it is worth hedging one's bets by spending £1,500 on a multi-fuel stove! Not that this helps with electricity costs.

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Jeff

(@jeff)

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Posts: 559

09/08/2022 8:34 am

Updated today

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/price-cap-forecasts-for-january-rise-to-over-4200-as-wholesale-prices-surge-again-and-ofgem-revises-cap-methodology/https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/price-cap-forecasts-for-january-rise-to-over-4200-as-wholesale-prices-surge-again-and-ofgem-revises-cap-methodology/

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Mike Patrick

(@mike-patrick)

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Posts: 188

09/08/2022 4:29 pm

Update on EDF fixed rates.

I'm currently on at 2 yr fixed (Feb 2022 - Feb 2024) tariff at 34p per kWh electricity.

Last month I reported their 2 year rate at 61p/kWh

Only 4 weeks later they are now quoting 69.78p/kWh for a 2 year fix.

Mike

Grant Aerona HPID10 10kWh ASHP

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Jeff

(@jeff)

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Joined: 5 years ago

Posts: 559

09/08/2022 4:36 pm

Posted by: @mike-patrick

Update on EDF fixed rates.

I'm currently on at 2 yr fixed (Feb 2022 - Feb 2024) tariff at 34p per kWh electricity.

Last month I reported their 2 year rate at 61p/kWh

Only 4 weeks later they are now quoting 69.78p/kWh for a 2 year fix.

Mike

Just shows how dramatic the rate differences are

OVO are quoting 58.24p/kWh today on a 2 year.

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Mike Patrick

(@mike-patrick)

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Posts: 188

16/08/2022 6:46 pm

Today the 2 year fixed rate from EDF is now 76.8p/kWh.

That's a 10% increase in just 1 week.

Mike

Grant Aerona HPID10 10kWh ASHP

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Jeff

(@jeff)

Noble Member Member

Joined: 5 years ago

Posts: 559

16/08/2022 6:53 pm

Posted by: @mike-patrick

Today the 2 year fixed rate from EDF is now 76.8p/kWh.

That's a 10% increase in just 1 week.

Mike

OVO two year inc VAT

Electricity

Unit rate:

60.68p/kWh

Standing charge:

46.54p/day

Gas

Unit rate:

17.57p/kWh

Standing charge:

27.52p/day

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Transparent

(@transparent)

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Posts: 3029

16/08/2022 7:15 pm

The UK Government guaranteed to pay EDF a whopping £92.5 per MWh produced by Hinkley-C when the initial contracts were signed.

Even though it's inflation-linked, that deal now looks like a bargain.

I could buy myself the largest electric van, add another layer of battery on the load-compartment floor and drive to Hinkley once a week to 'fill up'. That should keep the house lights on at less than I'd pay a domestic energy supplier. 😜

Save energy... recycle electrons!

👍

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Diverted.Energy

(@diverted-energy)

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Joined: 4 years ago

Posts: 83

18/08/2022 12:05 am

it will one day fall again, never as low as it was but that bargain won't last long.

Especially as Gas gets diluted more out the mix. I was and will always be a bad deal.

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Diverted.Energy

(@diverted-energy)

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Joined: 4 years ago

Posts: 83

18/08/2022 12:19 am

@mike-patrick take that as an indication of things to come:

They are predicting what the actual cost is going to be over the next two years, that means 80% on this October CAP is not high enough to expectations. They use formulas to calculate those contracts and that is beyond frightening.

I signed Mum and Mum in law to Scottish Power in March when people were telling me I was stupid - the same people are now facing Octobers rise and regret not listing to me. Zero Exit fees per fuel at 32p/kwh E and 10p/kwh G. They are set to save £1200 each over the next 12 months based on Octobers rises.

Mum in law was straightforward over the phone, Mum's wasn't, I signed her up via the Internet, 2 weeks later and numerous calls, they claimed it had not gone through, negative credit (£650 in Credit), meter number failure (meter checked and fine), so many more excuses not to allow it to connect then finally "we are not taking customers on".

In the end, I threatened court for breach of contract as I'd received email confirmation and twice in the first week told me all was good, just need to wait. Outcome, they put on a temporary tariff at £289 per month to action the transfer and back dated the transfer to the £124.50 the original tariff was. In 4 weeks it had risen that much.

Fair play, they finally honoured it, but is was 14 hours on the phone and willingness to bring in the Ombudsman and Court proceedings. They are both now on 2yr until Sept 24.

Yet, Martin Lewis was still spouting "Do Nothing".. the advice should have been like we did, sign up with a low or Zero exit fee and see how things go over summer while usage was low and losses were minimal. It would have been apparent between October and April - and again March until June that staying in contract was the best option. If it wasn't and looked like increases were more favourable on Capped, then you could have just cancelled and dropped back to Variable. Do Nothing was VERY BAD advice.

This post was modified 4 years ago 3 times by Diverted.Energy

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ChickenBig

(@chickenbig)

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Posts: 292

24/08/2022 7:31 am

:-/ Wholesale gas prices are now up to 480p/therm = 29.8p/kWh of electricity when passed through a CCGT.

Interestingly the national grid generation graphs shows a return of king coal to the energy mix; 0.5GW or greater over the last day. Even oil in the form of OCGT is making a comeback.

👍

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