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Electricity price predictions

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JulianC
(@julianc)
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@batalto I agree. I think it’s down to poor design or high temperature flow. My background is systems engineering - continuous improvement is key to improve the SCOP. That’s where all the good information on this site can help. 

Daikin Altherma 3H HT 18kW ASHP with Mixergy h/w cylinder; 4kW solar PV with Solic 200 electric diverter; Honda e and Hyundai Ioniq 5 P45 electric vehicles with Myenergi Zappi mk1 charger


   
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Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
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This could be an interesting development. Good be good and not so good. Whenever energy bosses say it’s good for customers that immediately makes me think otherwise. Peak tariffs could be crazy high if the grid is overloaded. Thoughts?

https://apple.news/An0IZrJkgQfKvsUctIz0S5Q

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(@batalto)
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@editor Honestly I see it as the start of batteries attached to time of use tariffs in advance e.g. its cheap now - fill, discharge here as the price is high. Its grid smoothing for the network operators. For people with heat pumps and EVs this is probably a good thing as our use is mostly when the grid is quiet. But as long as grid operators publish and we can see that to modify charging we can get huge benefits.

12kW Midea ASHP - 8.4kw solar - 29kWh batteries
262m2 house in Hampshire
Current weather compensation: 47@-2 and 31@17
My current performance can be found - HERE
Heat pump calculator spreadsheet - HERE


   
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(@kev-m)
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Call me a cynic but I just see high peak peak prices for those who can't afford batteries or an EV.  The industry should be taking action to smooth out generation and do their own storage but don't seem to be doing a lot.


   
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(@batalto)
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@kev-m its easier (cheaper) for the grid operators to do it at the consumer end rather than in the grid level.

12kW Midea ASHP - 8.4kw solar - 29kWh batteries
262m2 house in Hampshire
Current weather compensation: 47@-2 and 31@17
My current performance can be found - HERE
Heat pump calculator spreadsheet - HERE


   
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(@kev-m)
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Posted by: @batalto

@kev-m its easier (cheaper) for the grid operators to do it at the consumer end rather than in the grid level.

yup, that was my point...  

I can see the headlines already,

Hungry kids forced to wait in dark for dinner - Young mum of seven, Kaylee (21), is forced to wait until 7pm to switch the lights and microwave on leaving her kids sitting hungry in the dark with only a single 60 inch OLED TV...    


   
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(@batalto)
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@kev-m I'll just be bulking up my batteries lol. I figure 100kwh is plenty - all fear my hoards of power

12kW Midea ASHP - 8.4kw solar - 29kWh batteries
262m2 house in Hampshire
Current weather compensation: 47@-2 and 31@17
My current performance can be found - HERE
Heat pump calculator spreadsheet - HERE


   
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JulianC
(@julianc)
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I appreciate @kev-m view on the one hand it’s about fair electric pricing. But as more EVs with V2G (or batteries) are rolled out, the grid should be able to be better balanced, using more cheaper wind & solar & nuclear (yuck) and less coal & gas. Thus bringing down the peaks and making it better pricing for all. Ideally. 

Daikin Altherma 3H HT 18kW ASHP with Mixergy h/w cylinder; 4kW solar PV with Solic 200 electric diverter; Honda e and Hyundai Ioniq 5 P45 electric vehicles with Myenergi Zappi mk1 charger


   
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(@derek-m)
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I try to look at the issues from all angles.

It would certainly be more cost effective for National Grid (NG) and the local DNO's, if they can convince the consumers to pay for the vast amount of storage that will be required to try to reduce peak demand. The major problem then would be that this stored energy is no longer under the control of NG or the DNO's, and may not be in the desired location to supply the load. A further problem would be that unless the vast majority of people with home energy storage, sign up to allow the Smart Grid to stipulate charging and discharging periods, there could be occasions when the local grid could potentially become overloaded.

On the other hand there could be some merit in having a supply of energy in close proximity to the load, and hence reducing demand on the DNO's and NG.

So I agree that if people are prepared to pay for battery storage systems to be installed, then they should at least get some sort of recompense in the form of lower tariffs, particularly if they agree to allow Smart Grid control of some, if not all, of their storage capacity. EV's on the other hand are probably benefiting from reduced running costs, so should only be provided with cheaper tariffs if they are also being used to provide energy storage to help balance the grid.

The transition from fossil fuels is going to be a long and expensive journey, and the vast majority of the population are going to have to foot the bill, one way or another.

I suspect that there will be the need for a combination of both local home energy storage, along with grid size energy storage, to help balance supply to demand and hence keep the lights on.

As I have said repeatedly, the starting point should be to try to reduce demand, before worrying about how best to distribute energy around the country.


   
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(@ken)
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Interesting read.

Do people think cheap rate electricity will exist in the long run? With more and more EV's and batteries charging overnight I can't see there being much of a surplus for people to "use up"

I think variable rates e.g. octopus agile, being a thing but not the cheap rate overnight...

I'm thinking longer term 10-15 years time.


   
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(@derek-m)
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Posted by: @ken

Interesting read.

Do people think cheap rate electricity will exist in the long run? With more and more EV's and batteries charging overnight I can't see there being much of a surplus for people to "use up"

I think variable rates e.g. octopus agile, being a thing but not the cheap rate overnight...

I'm thinking longer term 10-15 years time.

I think in the longer term relative energy costs will reduce as more renewable generation becomes available, but whilst the fuel source may be free, the actual manufacture, installation and maintenance of the renewable generating equipment is not. There will also be the cost of large scale energy storage of one form or another. since the majority electrical energy at the moment has to be generated to meet demand, which cannot be achieved solely with renewable generation.


   
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(@batalto)
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@ken I think the overnight rates might go, but be replaced with tariffs which drop when the sun is shining or wind blowing - much like octopus agile where some days (before all this madness) the tariff actually would go negative and pay you to use energy. I can easily see that happening on very windy days, especially when you consider that the government has auctioned another 25GW of turbines this year and our current capacity is only 24GW. We will have more than double the power output.

12kW Midea ASHP - 8.4kw solar - 29kWh batteries
262m2 house in Hampshire
Current weather compensation: 47@-2 and 31@17
My current performance can be found - HERE
Heat pump calculator spreadsheet - HERE


   
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