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Electricity price predictions

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Batpred
(@batpred)
Noble Member Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 660
 

@judith 

Thanks for sharing, and nice to see how the Octopus centre for net0 data shows a very differentiated consumption pattern in EV households, significantly shifted to overnight (we go off-radar during the day). 

Now seriously, they comment that the cosy type of tariffs already changed demand. One way of thinking would be that, in case the grid is overloaded at specific times of day (considering commercial use), that demand can probably be shifted by adjusting the lower cost periods.

And of course there is the generation side, with increasing share of generation not being on demand and perhaps also CfD...    

One interesting point is the inferred COP that they calculated, of around 3 to 3.4.. 

image

I came across a 2022 paper that expected 300k boilers gone with BUS in 2025. With our total by all schemes being 60k heatpumps installed in 2025, the grid usage pattern cannot have changed as expected..

image

So if we can infer anything from the past, this other factor (consumer decisions to take up low carbon technologies) may continue to be very difficult to estimate. Very strong inertial forces.... 


8kW Solis S6-EH1P8K-L-PLUS hybrid inverter; G99: 8kw export; 16kWh Seplos Fogstar battery; Ohme Home Pro EV charger; 100Amp head, HA lab on mini PC


   
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