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Electricity price predictions

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Majordennisbloodnok
(@majordennisbloodnok)
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To be frank, I've been expecting this and am a wee bit surprised it has taken this long. Moreover, I am at least half expecting changes to other tariffs too. There has been much written on this forum about how profitable ToU tariffs are anyway and the reality is that the energy suppliers are still profit-generating companies, so each tariff has to pay its way somehow. The only tariffs I wouldn't expect to change are the standard fixed or variable ones and the Agile ones; the standard ones because of the cap and the Agile ones because they're simply following the market.

Of course, I could be wrong and have been very much so before.


105 m2 bungalow in South East England
Mitsubishi Ecodan 8.5 kW air source heat pump
18 x 360W solar panels
1 x 6 kW GroWatt battery and SPH5000 inverter
1 x Myenergi Zappi
1 x VW ID3
Raised beds for home-grown veg and chickens for eggs

"Semper in excretia; sumus solum profundum variat"


   
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(@chandykris)
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@skd That's good to know. Probably that would apply for Octopus Go as well. This would have a positive impact on heat pump owners, as our battery is mostly running on grid only by 6 pm in the winter. And on those really cold days, probably by 2 pm.


16 * 435 watts PV
13 kWh Growatt battery
1 EV - Mercedes EQB
6 kW Aira Heat Pump


   
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Toodles
(@toodles)
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@old_scientist Thank you old_scientist, I have been thinking along similar lines as a timeframe. Regarding the manual control, on days when I was not otherwise engaged, this is what I endeavoured to do but it would be so much more elegant, faff-free and reliable if Kraken were to do it for me.😉 Toodles.


This post was modified 3 days ago by Toodles

Toodles, heats his home with cold draughts and cooks food with magnets.


   
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(@old_scientist)
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Posted by: @toodles

@old_scientist Thank you old_scientist, I have been thinking along similar lines as a timeframe. Regarding the manual control, on days when I was not otherwise engaged, this is what I endeavoured to do but it would be so much more elegant, faff-free and reliable if Kraken were to do it for me.😉 Toodles.

@Toodles Agreed. Perhaps I'm too much of a perfectionist, always trying to squeeze that last couple percent performance out of the system. However, that said, if a couple percent of performance were left on the table due to the inefficiencies of Kraken, we'd still be massively better off on IOF compared to if we remained on Cosy/SEG, so in this case I'm a little more tolerant if it's not perfect. So long as I can remain net zero cost for the year, I'm more than happy!

 


Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
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 Bash
(@bash)
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The issue in the market with exporting solar and the associated payments is it coincides with lower demand (in the most part).

Heat Pump owners need the import most when solar output is at its lowest (or zero).

It seemed inevitable that export rates would fall as the market matures.

Let's hope that overnight rates hold out so that we can still charge our batteries at 7p a kWh.



   
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(@chandykris)
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@bash Looks like Intelligent Octopus Go and Go rates are going up for my region. It's going up to 7.5p and 9p per kWh respectively. I saw a YT video saying import rates are going up and export rates are doing down. So, looked up on Octopus website, and it's indeed going up by 5p per kWh.


16 * 435 watts PV
13 kWh Growatt battery
1 EV - Mercedes EQB
6 kW Aira Heat Pump


   
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(@papahuhu)
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@old_scientist when I received the notification I went and checked the IOF rates. Here in Cheshire they are currently about 1p /kWh higher than they were last year as recorded on my bill. So, if you are a nett exporter they are even better for customers than last year. I still don’t understand how they can make it viable, I end up with several thousand in credit come the start of winter and then just switch tariff. 
Why pay customers 32p a unit when new solar farms are caped to circa 6p. 



   
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(@old_scientist)
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Posted by: @papahuhu

@old_scientist when I received the notification I went and checked the IOF rates. Here in Cheshire they are currently about 1p /kWh higher than they were last year as recorded on my bill. So, if you are a nett exporter they are even better for customers than last year. I still don’t understand how they can make it viable, I end up with several thousand in credit come the start of winter and then just switch tariff. 
Why pay customers 32p a unit when new solar farms are caped to circa 6p. 

@papahuhu Yes, a net metering tariff where import and export are the same price seems a bit of a paradox where import prices are rising at the same time as export prices are falling. This paradox may be partially explained by the fact that whilst the import price we pay maybe rising, the underlying wholesale cost of electricity may not be behaving the same way and the increases could be due to other elements of the bill such as increases in transmission costs or levies and taxes. I've not checked, but current IOF pricing in my region looks similar to last year.

WRT the prices paid, I believe Octopus are using our collective batteries for grid balancing, not just as a supply of energy, and are sharing the additional revenue this generates with their customers for giving up control of their batteries. Last summer I averaged around 26p per kWh for my export, and considered that as around 15p for the energy exported and the additional 11p as compensation for handing over control of my battery. I am amazed at attitudes in some of the Facebook groups I frequent where members refuse to consider IOF because they are not prepared to give up control of their battery, or they simply do not understand how a net metering tariff works, or maybe their net export is simply not large enough to be worthwhile. Anyway, this commonplace reluctance makes me think Octopus may have got the pricing about right given they need to attract customers to the tariff, but maybe not too many customers? IOF sits perfectly for users like myself with a large solar array and a heat pump (but no EV), where all my usage is in winter and all my generation is in summer.

Given we import at 15p on Cosy in the winter, and export at 26p average in summer, every kWh we export in summer buys us 1.73 kWh of electricity in winter (which is fantastic leverage), and running a heat pump with a SCOP of 4 then turns that 1.73 kWh of electrical energy into 6.9 kWh of heat, all from that original 1kWh of exported solar. When you combine a heat pump, a large solar array, a battery and the right tariff, it all comes together to make a lot more sense.

 


This post was modified 2 days ago 2 times by Old_Scientist

Samsung 12kW gen6 ASHP with 50L volumiser and all new large radiators. 7.2kWp solar (south facing), Tesla PW3 (13.5kW)
Solar generation completely offsets ASHP usage annually. We no longer burn ~1600L of kerosene annually.


   
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 Bash
(@bash)
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Posted by: @chandykris

@bash Looks like Intelligent Octopus Go and Go rates are going up for my region. It's going up to 7.5p and 9p per kWh respectively. I saw a YT video saying import rates are going up and export rates are doing down. So, looked up on Octopus website, and it's indeed going up by 5p per kWh.

 

I just checked ours and Go is the same at 7.5p, but Intelligent is up to 7.5p.

So ours has been tweaked also.

I'd have hoped with the green levies being removed from April it might have come down a little.

 



   
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(@chandykris)
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Interestingly, personally our rates are still 8.5p. I wonder whether the Go and IOG rates mentioned on the website are only for new customers. I assume we might see the increase to 9p after the Ofgem price cap changes applicable from April.

Posted by: @bash

I just checked ours and Go is the same at 7.5p, but Intelligent is up to 7.5p.

 


16 * 435 watts PV
13 kWh Growatt battery
1 EV - Mercedes EQB
6 kW Aira Heat Pump


   
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Batpred
(@batpred)
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Posted by: @toodles

I’ve just received a note from Octopus Energy concerning the export tariff ‘Outgoing’ the rate is being reduced from 15 pence to 12 pence per kWh. as from March 1st. Oh well, it was good while it lasted. Toodles.

I had a note about import, but my IOG is fixed at 7p overnight (+ standing charge of 15 quid a month..). Export is Agile but every time I check, it is over 17, so ROI still beating my expectations. 🙂 

 


8kW Solis S6-EH1P8K-L-PLUS hybrid inverter; G99: 8kw export; 16kWh Seplos Fogstar battery; Ohme Home Pro EV charger; 100Amp head, HA lab on mini PC


   
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 SKD
(@skd)
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Posted by: @batpred

Posted by: @toodles

I’ve just received a note from Octopus Energy concerning the export tariff ‘Outgoing’ the rate is being reduced from 15 pence to 12 pence per kWh. as from March 1st. Oh well, it was good while it lasted. Toodles.

I had a note about import, but my IOG is fixed at 7p overnight (+ standing charge of 15 quid a month..). Export is Agile but every time I check, it is over 17, so ROI still beating my expectations. 🙂 

 

that does look like an interesting export rate, with the new 20% rate reduction for regular Outgoing..  Is 17+p just for the 4-7pm peak?

 


Mitsubishi Ecodan 11.2kW R32 ASHP; Ecodan DHW cylinder; UFH+rads
20x430W Jinko TOPCON Tiger Neo solar; Luxpower 6+4kW hybrid inverter; 20kWh Hanchu ESS LFP battery storage
PHEV; Zappi charger
1997 stone detached house with updated insulation. 140sqm, maintained at 20-22degC 24/7


   
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