I can't say for certain, but on my analysis it's not the heat pump itself, but the changes to the heating system that are the cause of the high upfront costs.

Yes a heat pump itself is more expensive than a boiler, I reckon a boiler for my house is maybe £1500 (uninstalled) and a heat pump is £3500 (uninstalled).  Surely as economies of scale kick in, the heat pumps should get somewhat cheaper.

But it's the problem of finding an outside location, piping that into the home with expensive 28mm copper pipework, adding or replacing a hot water cylinder which run from £1200 upwards depending on size, replacing radiators all goes into the majority cost variance.  I don't see those costs changing much, pipework, labour etc. are not going to get cheaper.

One thing I'm not sure about is expertise, heat pumps need a lot more design, and that's in short supply, so maybe that could be cheaper as time goes on and they reach a mass market.

What I am betting on is replacing the first heat pump when it eventually dies will be a doddle, and just as cheap as replacing a boiler would be now.

In answer to @egp01 original question: "I am currently thinking about having a heat pump installed. Is now a good time?

• I definitely wouldn't wait until the boiler is broken and it becomes a distress purchase - you need time to evaluate the proposals etc (my whole journey took 2 years - but that is extreme) so you need to sort it in advance
• As above prices may come down a bit, but probably not massively in the timescale you are speaking of (I comment on this more below)
• Heat pump controls, which are currently in some cases a bit crude, may well improve/become more user friendly, but if you pick a good one now you wont be disappointed.
• The quicker you make the change, the quicker you (and the planet) get the benefits
• But of course there is always the argument that throwing out perfectly good equipment before it has reached the end of its service life is not particularly eco friendly, although in the case of a boiler the carbon benefits of the heat pump soon outweigh the embedded carbon in the boiler so this can be largely discounted

FWIW I have absolutely no regrets about my heat pump purchase, replacing a boiler that was perhaps 15 years old but still had plenty of life in it.  For me the quality of heating and comfort is much better, the hot water system is much better, its cheaper to run, and overall its just a superior experience.  Of course there are also horror stories of botched installs, but by engaging here and not rushing the process you should be able to avoid that. 

Posted by: @scalextrix

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I can't say for certain, but on my analysis it's not the heat pump itself, but the changes to the heating system that are the cause of the high upfront costs.

Yes a heat pump itself is more expensive than a boiler, I reckon a boiler for my house is maybe £1500 (uninstalled) and a heat pump is £3500 (uninstalled).  Surely as economies of scale kick in, the heat pumps should get somewhat cheaper.

But it's the problem of finding an outside location, piping that into the home with expensive 28mm copper pipework, adding or replacing a hot water cylinder which run from £1200 upwards depending on size, replacing radiators all goes into the majority cost variance.  I don't see those costs changing much, pipework, labour etc. are not going to get cheaper.

One thing I'm not sure about is expertise, heat pumps need a lot more design, and that's in short supply, so maybe that could be cheaper as time goes on and they reach a mass market.

What I am betting on is replacing the first heat pump when it eventually dies will be a doddle, and just as cheap as replacing a boiler would be now.

I am not an installer but, based on what I see and hear, I agree (including the final upbeat comment).

I also think there is scope for simplification of the current install methodology, which is gold plated (if not always gold standard), with a basic swap over being offered at first and then value added upgrades being offered in addition.  This would require a modest rebalancing of electricity vs gas prices and a bit of a change of mindset, but we need to install 1.5M heat pumps a year whereas currently we are installing roughly 100K, so major change is needed!  This approach would also reduce disruption/allow the disruption to be timed when other things are being done.

Some key things to consider IMHO are:

1. For radiators, design for 55C with 45C offered as a value add upgrade.  Needs a modest rebalancing of electric vs gas costs but far more radiators and pipework can be reused, particularly in retrofits where insulation standards have been upgraded since the central heating was first installed.

2. Reuse the DHW tank where there is one, by loading with a PHE and circulator pump.  Amazingly its cheaper to buy a phe, circulator pump and a new direct cylinder than it is to buy a heat pump cylinder, and if you dont have to buy and plumb a cylinder you are quids in.   

3. Re-think the DHW safety vent arrangements.  A heat pump cant possibly boil the hot water, so its only immersion failure that the safety vent protects.  If you relocate the immersion heater outside the tank then it can be made safe another way and, most importantly, in another (more convenient) place so you don't have to route the D1/D2 pipe through the house

4. For properties with smaller heat losses, consider an indoor heat pump (a few are beginning to emerge)

We also need some innovations:

1. An low cost auto-balancing LSV which balances for temperature not flow, so installers dont have to balance radiators

2. Auto set up of the WC curve

3. A better (and more accurate) way of doing the heat loss survey, so we stop over estimating and over specifying with the resulting added costs and disruption.

Ideas like the Heat Geek mini-cylinder (designed as a combi replacement) need to become a bit more mainstream/varied, although they are fighting the physics and the (ridiculous IMHO) expectation that some people have of 4 off, 10 minute, 20l/min showers in quick succession!

In summary I cant personally imagine a 'big bang' solution which will suddenly bring costs down in one go, because much of the cost is in the heating system, but I can imagine chipping away at it with a series of changes like the above, each of which saves half a day and £500, which collectively make a major difference.  The likes of Octopus and BG, who are productizing mass installation, will hopefully drive some of this.

Good comments above. Personally I decided to take the very attractive subsidy today - as costs come down (for parts of the install as explained above) that will likely result in lower subsidies. It would not surprise me subsidies will become means tested in time to target those that need them most, or disappear.

i now have a brand new perfectly working heating system for 4K that will now be future ready.  Bargain to be honest if you put in perspective against house costs etc. Swapping out a pump in the future will as cheap as a boiler , if the rest of the infrastructure is in place.
wirh solar and home BESS and 2 EVs my total electricity bill is 125 a month. That used to be my fuel bill for 1 car… 

if you can afford the capex it’s a not brainer I think. also from a CO2 perspective given the sunk CO2 on your existing equipment will be earned back in 1 winter.

@jamespa my heating and hot water system works fine with no adjustments on 55C flow, so you are spot on.

If we make electric cheaper (I say just do a straight up carbon tax) then many more people could have cheaper installs, and cheaper bills.

Posted by: @pie_eater

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if you can afford the capex it’s a no brainer I think. also from a CO2 perspective given the sunk CO2 on your existing equipment will be earned back in 1 winter.

Posted by: @pie_eater

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I now have a brand new perfectly working heating system for 4K that will now be future rea

I agree.  My EV, solar panels and heat pump are basically brilliant.  Im never going back that's for sure, unless of course the next government decides to penalise those who have supported 'net stupid zero' in order to pander to dog-whistle politics, which unfortunately I would not rule out.

Having gone through a heat pump installation this week, I can attest to the sheer scale of the installation operation, relative to that for a boiler.  The 5-figure pre-BUS Grant quotes make much more sense when you realise what's involved in the installation process, and this week has been an eye-opener in that regard.

The main consideration to make is the availability of grants to offset the cost.  If this brings the end cost to anything close to the replacement cost of a boiler, then the decision becomes clearer, and if you have existing solar PV or battery systems to work alongside it, then it gets towards the realms of a no-brainer, BUT this assumes that your boiler is nearing the end of it's natural life and a replacement cost comparison makes sense.  This doesn't seem to be the case in your situation, with a relatively new boiler.

In your case, the decision boils down more towards to the prospects of these types of grant still being available when you reach the natural point of replacement.  One of those quoting for my installation implied that the BUS grant would be returning to £5k in the 'next year or so', which I took as a selling tactic, rather than anything based in fact.  If you have a mortgage with a bank that offers such a scheme, there's the potential to get further monies back via their green home grant initiatives (I've just applied for mine earlier today, as it's a post installation process).  If successful, I'll get a further £2,000 back towards the installation cost, on top of the BUS grant.  The dying boiler was the primary driver as to timing for me, but the potential to get a £9,500 reduction in overall cost was a big incentive.

It's also worth factoring the added value of getting radiator replacements to your home within the quoted cost, which isn't something that typically comes with boiler replacement process.  11 out of 13 of mine were replaced, so this has been significant for my installation.

It's very much a personal viewpoint, but I'm sceptical that there will be financial support at these levels in, say, 5 years time.  Your own views on this would be a relevant factor as to the benefits of 'replacing early'.