@editor I locked in when Ofgem announced the increases. The price offered was 26.50p/kWh and 41.05p/day.  A COP of 2.95 over the last three months just makes it marginally dearer than oil. 

Posted by: @mjr

@george tariffs vary by region and have you included the forecast 20% increase in October 2022 when making your comparison? And I think that was forecast before the Russian situation got worse.

We are currently on 21p per kWh, this should rise to around 28/29p in April. A 20% rise in October would take this to 33/34p therefore I am better to stay on the capped variable tariff. The cheapest rate I am currently being offered is 33p per kWh which is what I would be moved to automatically in October. Therefore by my calculations I am better off just sitting on the variable capped tariff and periodically check what fixed tariffs are being offered.

Another option is to ride out this winter on the current price cap (circa 21p) and the 1st April price cap (circa 28p) in the hope of picking up a fixed price tariff after winter and  prior to the 1st  Oct cap. 

The 1st Oct price cap is currently due to be released around 6th August.

The 1st April price cap increase was heavily skewed to gas. this is very likely to be the same on 1st Oct. Of course we don't know if the price cap is going up 20%, but a 20% increase in the headline price cap is very likely to produce a less than 20% increase in electricity only tariffs. I suspect a 20% on the 28p electric price cap is a good assumption even given this. 

Not an easy decision. 

I hate to sound like a monger of gloom, but I'm expecting non tou prices to hit above 0.5GBP before we hit net zero. Maybe even higher.  1GBP is not out of the question ATM, perhaps higher at times with TOU/ surge pricing.  

The gov can do very little I feel in Energy terms ATM - its an open market - even mining more gas does not help as this is sold at market prices (my understanding). Yes they could initiate windfall tax - for a one off hit of pain relief. But the energy corporates (of whom I am so fond) will simply recoup losses from guess who? In the short term this will impact their investment ability to innovate to net zero. 

Same in France - Macron made a big 'statement' with state owned EDF capping prices for consumers - which wiped 8 Billion off its price. Now it needs other state funds to replace it - (the French state just paid 2billion to top it up and this comes from taxes) so the people always pay ultimately.  

The frank reality is that net zero isn't cheap, (nor is it fair IMHO) but it is of course absolutely essential- and as consumers we will have to foot the bill, (as we are). As Derek here suggests - reducing reliance from the grid is ultimately the only way to overcome our current and potentially future energy costs. 

@smoke-me-a-kipper, all valid points. 

Reducing reliance on the grid would be an easier proposition if it meant switching off light bulbs and reducing the run time of electronic devices (computers, TVs, etc.) Far more difficult to do if homes have gone down the electrification route with EVs and ASHPs, switching those home from consuming 8-12kWhs per day to 50-60 kWhs per day.

@editor Mars I agreed that the government can pass laws that really help reduce the amount of electric that people are burning each day on silly things like 60w bulbs ! but am I the only person that just doesnt see how we can get to this Net zero and still produce enough power to supply all those EV's and ASHPs ? we are basically looking at consumption for electric going up by nearly 40kWhs per day for every house hold which means that the grid itself is going to need to provide power at least 3 times what we have now ? just how do they think they are going to provide that within the short time that is left to achieve it ? and then how do you tell people that your electric prices are going to be so high that you cant actually afford to heat or power any of your devices as you have decided to eat instead !! it does sound a little gloomy but the reality currently are just words and numbers with no real method of even getting close to achieving it !

@boblochinver That's why I don't think battery cars are the future for the reasons you state. Hydrogen is the future for powering cars it can be produced at source i.e. tide power, thereby reducing the load on the grid. This is where surplus electricity will go. 

Posted by: @boblochinver

but am I the only person that just doesnt see how we can get to this Net zero and still produce enough power to supply all those EV's and ASHPs ? we are basically looking at consumption for electric going up by nearly 40kWhs per day for every house hold which means that the grid itself is going to need to provide power at least 3 times what we have now ?

I think 40kWhs is a bit high but even so, I think it's going to need a combination of smart grid, smarter ASHP controllers so we're not all running them full-tilt at peak evening time every day and (say it softly because it's going to upset the tabloids) more EBs than EVs: EBikes for the short sub-5-mile journeys that made up more than half of all UK car trips in 2019.

You don't really get smart e-bike chargers because the batteries aren't that big and they generally plug into normal domestic outlets. Do any smart grid plugs (ones that switch on once the unit price drops below some threshold) exist yet or are people left to cobble their own together with simple smart plugs and control systems like EmonCMS's DemandShaper?

@mjr During the winter months I would say 40kWhs is under daily usage for ASHP, ASHP is only have the picture, is it air to air, air to radiators, air to underfloor heating and then theirs how effective it is within the existing insulation of the home (the UK has a huge amount of badly insulated homes) all this adds cost, and its costs that are outwith the reach of a lot of people. As for ebikes and the like I totally agree we should use more of those things for the likes of the morning commute etc but the current goverment cant even pass laws that allow people to use an e-scooter. One of the other issues with saying use ebikes is while the vast majority of our trips are indeed sub 5 miles the issue is using something other than a car to do that trip is not always suitable for an e-bike such as shopping or taking children with you or a pet, and then theres the great british weather, how many of us are going to go out in the rain and wind and for me in the highlands the winter snow storms. If we had ideal California weather then its a potential option but here in UK we would still need a car and then an e-bike and once again we hit the issue of cost, some people can barely afford the car never mind other options of transport. Could ebikes help yes no doubt but to be honest they wont replace anywhere near the the half of trips that are under 5 miles.

Posted by: @editor

@smoke-me-a-kipper, all valid points. 

Reducing reliance on the grid would be an easier proposition if it meant switching off light bulbs and reducing the run time of electronic devices (computers, TVs, etc.) Far more difficult to do if homes have gone down the electrification route with EVs and ASHPs, switching those home from consuming 8-12kWhs per day to 50-60 kWhs per day.

Hi Mars,

Thanks to the antics of Mr. Putin, who I understand that most Russians don't particularly like, but think it wiser not to say too much, rather than spend time in prison, or even longer in the cemetery, we now have higher energy costs. But Mr. Putin is not solely to blame. We have companies and countries who failed to buy and store gas when it was available at low cost, probably because some bean counter thought that it may cost a little more for their company.

Whether a consumer goes all electric or a hybrid arrangement, all fuel costs are rising, so at the end of the day there is no easy way of avoiding these extra costs.

One way is to use less energy in the first place by installing better insulation and draft proofing. If one can afford to do so then install solar thermal or solar PV systems, preferably with battery storage. Try to time how you use appliances, so that you can utilise free solar energy or at least don't switch everything on at the same time, particularly during the peak periods.

EV owners should already be benefiting from lower running costs, particularly if they are charging using free solar or cheap overnight rates, so really do not have any room to complain.

Since ASHP owners may have had much of the installation cost subsidised by the consumer/tax payer, they should therefore be trying to ensure that their system is correctly configured and operated for maximum efficiency, so that the reduction in CO2 emissions benefits all who have made a contribution.

I suspect that for many in the UK, actual energy costs are not that high in the great scheme of things, so maybe they should just make allowance in their budget. Obviously there will be some households that will struggle and these are the ones that will need support.

Posted by: @boblochinver

During the winter months I would say 40kWhs is under daily usage for ASHP,

You may be right but I would be surprised. Our house is too big and a 1980s design with minor insulation upgrades (40mm in loft when we moved in!) but hasn't yet used 40kWh in a day this winter.

With all the Metering and Monitoring Service Package data out there, does government know what the average daily usage currently is? Per square metre? I'm sure someone will know the average UK house size.

Posted by: @boblochinver

As for ebikes and the like I totally agree we should use more of those things for the likes of the morning commute etc but the current goverment cant even pass laws that allow people to use an e-scooter. One of the other issues with saying use ebikes is while the vast majority of our trips are indeed sub 5 miles the issue is using something other than a car to do that trip is not always suitable for an e-bike such as shopping or taking children with you or a pet,

E-bikes can take shopping baskets/saddlebags, child seats and pet baskets the same as most bikes, and the motor means it's not as tough to pedal them... and if you really want to move a lot, there are trailers and even cargo e-bikes. Anyone with an interest in sustainable energy and emissions reduction should be debunking the "oh I need to move shopping/children/pets for 20 minutes so I need a car" arguments, and so should government. When I was growing up out in the sticks, we used to move small stuff like that by bike and it didn't even have a motor.

Totally agree on e-scooters. If government doesn't hurry up and legalise 12/15mph lit+lever-braked e-scooters, there will be so many of the unlit 30mph foot-braked cheap junk ones on the streets that it'll take years to get rid of them all.

Posted by: @boblochinver

and then theres the great british weather, how many of us are going to go out in the rain and wind and for me in the highlands the winter snow storms. If we had ideal California weather then its a potential option

We have coats, spiked tyres and so on. Our weather ain't that much worse than neighbouring countries: the Netherlands is not famous for California weather!

Posted by: @boblochinver

 but here in UK we would still need a car and then an e-bike and once again we hit the issue of cost, some people can barely afford the car never mind other options of transport

E-bike instead of second car is an easier decision than going zero car, but in many medium/large town/city centres, half of households already don't have a car. In suburbia and the countryside, maybe club cars and ad-hoc car-sharing will enable some to go electric and go zero car sooner than they could otherwise, but both of those could do with more government kickstarting.

@mjr Your points are valid but they are valid mostly for people living in the cities and larger towns and that will create even more poverty and cost of living increase for the people in the more rural areas (I live in far north Scottish highlands) and while the items you talk about coats, child seats, trailers etc that in principle is sound advice but I fear the reality of someone looking outside and seeing that its torrential rain and they just need to travel a mile or so Im pretty sure they are going to take the car rather than spending 20 mins either side of the trip preparing and sorting themselves out after. People on the whole go for convivence. its not about an option instead of a second car as lots of people can only afford one so that will take priority on their disposable income rather than bikes, trailers, baskets etc. In the cities yes it makes more sense but then theres more accessible buses etc. I lived on the German/Dutch border for 10 years and while the dutch do indeed like their bikes when its pouring cats and dogs I seem to remember them being just as happy to take their cars. Government absolutely need to get involved and actually make it more appealing for people to use these other options to the car and that might mean spending more money on local high capacity transport and making it so cheap it makes it the option to go for rather than the cost of having a car all the time.  What makes it all the more interesting is we all have grown accustomed to the ease of use of having a car and the benefits that it brings and while those of us that have lived in large cities didnt always own a car it was because it was so easy to get mass transit to most places that you needed to go. (I lived in New York, Tokyo., Hamburg and Berlin and didnt use a car in any of those cities) but living in the highlands I absolutely need a car, my nearest medium sized shop that actually sells more than the little shop in the village is over 40 miles away. Ebikes are great and the general population needs to be more educated about them (I think most people think its just jump on and away you go but we both know that it just provides a useful helpful boost to make the journey easier when pedalling) E-bikes are cheap either I paid £3+K for mine and while its great its a major expense for a bike. Of course the ultimate option is for everyone to get a motorbike as they are not only great fun but you can get to where you want to get just as fast if not faster in rush hour traffic ! ..... we live in interesting times lets see what the government come up with when we are a few years away from the goal of net zero and they are no where near it !!