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Electricity price predictions

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(@diverted-energy)
Estimable Member Member
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 68
 

@julianc excuse the error.

The gist being it is only viable with a 'fudged' tariff.


   
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JulianC
(@julianc)
Noble Member Member
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 329
 

@jamespa I have two EVs as well as solar PV and an ASHP. 
It is a balance. The 27/7p per kWh means we average 19p/kWh like you. 
I’m also working with Havenwise (whom I introduced to Mars and this forum) to improve my current SCOP of 4 to hopefully 4.2 or focus more on night time heating. 
My point is: you need a smart meter; you need to understand your electricity demand pattern & volumes; can you shift the demand? Then investigate the best tariff to meet your demand. 
Since I wrote my first note, I’ve read the MSE blog on the price changes & it does seem madness to reduce gas prices. Hey ho.

Daikin Altherma 3H HT 12kWh ASHP with Mixergy h/w cylinder; 4kW solar PV with Solic 200 electric diverter; Honda e and new Hyundai Ioniq 5 N electric vehicles with Myenergi Zappi mk1 charger


   
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JulianC
(@julianc)
Noble Member Member
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 329
 

@diverted-energy afternoon. I still disagree with the term. The electric price varies throughout the day, every half hour and it’s known the day before. So typically, it is cheaper at night and more expensive at 4:30 - 7:30pm. The dynamic tariffs or the fixed variable tariffs take this into account. Anyone can get a smart meter. I do accept that there are still some people on pay as you go - which is practically criminal in 2025. But we must design the system for the majority and support the financially challenged.

Daikin Altherma 3H HT 12kWh ASHP with Mixergy h/w cylinder; 4kW solar PV with Solic 200 electric diverter; Honda e and new Hyundai Ioniq 5 N electric vehicles with Myenergi Zappi mk1 charger


   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
Noble Member Member
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 483
 

Posted by: @julianc

@diverted-energy I think your “subsidied tariff” statement is incorrect. The range of tariffs offered by, for example Octopus, are there to balance the varying rate of electricity thru the day/night. I’m an electric house. On Octopus Intelligent Go. New rates aren’t announced, but I pay 27p & 7p/kWh. So you do shift your usage. 
I also don’t think it’s an either/or for solar PV and ASHP. We went solar first, added a hp 9 years later. 
I do agree the disparity between gas and electricity prices drives fossil fuel usage and this needs to be very gradually rebalanced. 
@editor I don’t think it’s reasonable to multiply the full electric price x your usage and compare to oil. Surely you are on some sort of flexible tariff?  Oil is 53p/L currently. Very low. We used to do a one time annual buy in the summer, but not everyone’s tank is large enough. 
We need to look for solutions and suggest options to encourage ASHP take up. My mother-in-law has her octopus installation starting on 1st September. She will switch to Octopus Cosy tariff. Gas hob removed, her gas meter will be taken out, saving the standing charge.

The "subsidised tarrif" comment is currently correct. Octopus loose money on time sliced tarrif but price them for the long term game to get customer numbers and increase their company valuation as they are currently at least a private company. The tarrif subsidy are unsustainable long term. The boiler upgrade grant is even more unsustainable at scale just like the early FIT payments. 

I would not be surprised to see a collapse in heat pump retro fits when the inevitable happens and the heat pump grants have to fall. The government had to basically bribe people by increasing the grants so much, with most of the grants wasted on relatively well off people. One of the worst distributions of money I have ever seen in government. Such a shame it isn't more targeted IMHO. 

It wil be interesting to see what happens over the next few years. 

 


   
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Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
Illustrious Member Admin
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 3403
 

Posted by: @jamespa

You should seriously look at better tariffs.  I pay an average of 19p against a standard tarrif in my area of 26.5p

We can’t get a smart meter installed, so we’re stuck with standard tariffs.

But here’s what I really can’t get my head around: we’re on the most expensive electricity tariff in the UK by region — “North Wales & Mersey.” 

The thing is, we don’t live in North Wales and we’re two hours away from Merseyside. Yet we’re penalised with the highest unit rates in the country simply because of how the regions are carved up. If you’re unlucky enough to live in the wrong distribution region, you pay more to run your heat pump, regardless of how efficient your system is. Wild to me. 

Clean heating and electricity use shouldn’t be a postcode lottery. 

Pre-order: The Ultimate Guide to Heat Pumps

Subscribe and follow our Homeowners’ Q&A heat pump podcast


   
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(@jamespa)
Illustrious Member Moderator
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 2734
 

Posted by: @jeff

It wil be interesting to see what happens over the next few years. 

The next government scraps all green initiatives. 

There is a short term boost from reduced spend, followed by a long term decline as we fall further behind because of ever more expensive fuel costs, whilst others reap the rewards of a consistent long term investment in renewables. 

We lose credibility on the world stage which the very same people have already damaged it, but which is currently being repaired.

North sea oil and gas run out completely leaving us fully at the mercy of Russia, the middle east and the US who exploit this ruthlessly.

Ten years further on those who voted for the nonsense will realise they have been had, but by then it's too late to repair.

 

We have been here before.

 

Simples!

 

This post was modified 4 hours ago 3 times by JamesPa

4kW peak of solar PV since 2011; EV and a 1930s house which has been partially renovated to improve its efficiency. 7kW Vaillant heat pump.


   
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JulianC
(@julianc)
Noble Member Member
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 329
 

@jeff I am amazed. Please share your data. You can’t run a business at a loss for long.

Daikin Altherma 3H HT 12kWh ASHP with Mixergy h/w cylinder; 4kW solar PV with Solic 200 electric diverter; Honda e and new Hyundai Ioniq 5 N electric vehicles with Myenergi Zappi mk1 charger


   
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JulianC
(@julianc)
Noble Member Member
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 329
 

@editor hi Mars. I know you are remote, but you get no mobile signal?  New smart meters can use any mobile I believe.

Daikin Altherma 3H HT 12kWh ASHP with Mixergy h/w cylinder; 4kW solar PV with Solic 200 electric diverter; Honda e and new Hyundai Ioniq 5 N electric vehicles with Myenergi Zappi mk1 charger


   
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(@tim441)
Prominent Member Contributor
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 312
 

@editor 

1. Check if an “Alt HAN” solution is available

  • Smart meters use the DCC (Data Communications Company) network, which usually relies on cellular signals.
  • In areas with no coverage, Alt HAN (Alternative Home Area Network) technology is being rolled out — this extends coverage indoors or in rural locations.
  • You can ask your supplier if they can request an Alt HAN service for your property.

2. Ask for a dual-band communications hub

  • The newer “Dual Band” communications hubs can reach further indoors and sometimes solve signal issues in rural areas.
  • Worth asking your supplier if they can provide one when fitting your smart meter.

3. Use a meter with external aerial/booster

  • In some cases, suppliers can install a WAN booster aerial outside the property (e.g. on a wall or pole) to capture signal.
  • This depends on your property type and supplier’s willingness.
This post was modified 2 hours ago by Mars

Listed Grade 2 building with large modern extension.
LG Therma V 16kw ASHP
Underfloor heating + Rads
8kw pv solar
3 x 8.2kw GivEnergy batteries
1 x GivEnergy Gen1 hybrid 5.0kw inverter
Manual changeover EPS
MG4 EV


   
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Toodles
(@toodles)
Illustrious Member Contributor
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 2058
 

@julianc If this link will work, it might shed some light on that which Jeff eludes to:

https://open.substack.com/pub/davidturver/p/peak-pink-octopus?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Worried, Toodles.

 

Toodles, he heats his home with cold draughts and cooks his food with magnets.


   
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Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
Illustrious Member Admin
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 3403
 

@tim441 and @julianc, it's not the signal. It's the location of the existing main fuse, which would involve us having to take our kitchen cabinets apart which is just not an option, so instead I'll moan about the tariffs going up! 😉

This post was modified 2 hours ago 2 times by Mars

Pre-order: The Ultimate Guide to Heat Pumps

Subscribe and follow our Homeowners’ Q&A heat pump podcast


   
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(@tim441)
Prominent Member Contributor
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 312
 

@editor 😱🙃🙃

Oh dear! In my case with somewhere over 10,000kwh imports per annum I think I'd have to take the axe to my kitchen!!!

Seriously with savings of over £1500 per annum (in my case) by a move to time of use tariff (Intelligent Go) .. I'd be finding a way. If the main fuse ever blows presumably a way will have to be found?

Best of luck anyway

Listed Grade 2 building with large modern extension.
LG Therma V 16kw ASHP
Underfloor heating + Rads
8kw pv solar
3 x 8.2kw GivEnergy batteries
1 x GivEnergy Gen1 hybrid 5.0kw inverter
Manual changeover EPS
MG4 EV


   
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