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Electricity price predictions

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(@transparent)
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@tim441 is correct. That's why Darren Jones MP implemented a different channel through which whistle-blowers could make contact.

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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(@george)
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I've signed up to a fixed deal with my existing supplier Eon Next as they are offering 30.41p per kWh for 12 months and I want the certainty of the costs going into this winter.

 

I understand the variable tariff will be roughly 28p in the autumn but its expected to increase from Jan 2024 so for 30.41p I think its a good deal to take if its available to you given most of our electricity is used running the heat pump through the coldest months of December/January/February/March.

Mitsubishi Ecodan 14kw ASHP + 500l Cylinder


   
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(@tim441)
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Octopus Tracker consistently averaging around 18p for last month or more which indicates further drops in fixed rates should happen. Gas wholesale prices also indicate further drops.

But of course no guarantees and everyone has to consider personal circumstances, usage... and risk appetite!

Listed Grade 2 building with large modern extension.
LG Therma V 16kw ASHP
Underfloor heating + Rads
8kw pv solar
3 x 8.2kw GivEnergy batteries
1 x GivEnergy Gen1 hybrid 5.0kw inverter
Manual changeover EPS


   
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(@diverted-energy)
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@george did you get Zero exit fees?

There may be other deals available soon if you keep an eye on prices and be ready to switch if you can and bank to ride through.

Many I know switched to portable gas heaters last winter who'd had Heat Pumps installed. I still have the Gas boiler and refuse to have it taken out. Later this year/ Early next a new boiler running on LPG is going in as I resent the cost of standing charges for the equivalent of 6x 47kg bottles per year.

Between Sept 18th and March 18th, we consumed 3600kwh gas and 1800kwh electricity and used plug in Oil heaters, fan heaters and two air conditioners for heating running from Solar. Which came to around £500 of which £400 was given by government- so for £100, I think we did well, especially without spending £10.000's on a Heat Pump.

But - as I speak Hot Air, the other benefits of using Air to Air for heating is that for the last 6 weeks' the cooling has been very welcome- especially as its free to run.

2nd 15kwh battery now in place to stop us being forced to run heaters earlier when in Surplus and we'll see how this Winter goes with bigger storage. A second 24,000 BTU Air to Air is going in within the next few weeks to deal with the predicted heatwaves.

As 65% of our electricity over Winter came from Gas/Coal with emissions peaking at 300g per kwh, I'm not sure Heat Pumps actually did much to help the environment and government CO2 targets over last Winter.

 

 

This post was modified 10 months ago by Diverted.Energy

   
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(@george)
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@diverted-energy The exit fee is £75

 

Looking at the predicted price caps the price is nearly the same as the 30p guaranteed rate for the next 12 months in the fixed tariff so removes any risks with price volatility due to Ukraine/Supply issues.

Capture

Mitsubishi Ecodan 14kw ASHP + 500l Cylinder


   
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(@diverted-energy)
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@george you've done the right thing.

Just keep half an eye on anything else for longer or cheaper coming along that justifies forfeiting the exit fees. No guarantees but possible..

There's talk in the Gas industry of panic buying LNG Autumn and Winter, especially if China needs it. So although many believe there's downward trend, there is so much that could go so wrong.

LNG Shortages 

Low Wind generation- we're supposed to be closing coal

Sabotage in the North Sea

Anything is possible with a madman in Moscow.. But I get accused of Doom Mongering. Although when I said Russia will invade Ukraine- I was laughed at.

Exactly what you've done, I did with family members to shield although EPG was lower but they had theirs reduced to match.

There is talk of similar again as at 30p, its not 'cheap by a long shot'.

Cashback - oops,  the infamous Demand Reduction Scheme is going ahead again this year. As threatened last year, low Wind and high demand will again shoot Wholesale and risk Blackouts due to Fossil burning where there isn't enough capacity - an issue that is here to stay for many years to come due to very bad Energy government policies.

Many remind me that those dreaded Blackouts I predicted never came, well, there's always the next Winter. In the meantime more EVs will be sold and more Heat Pumps will be installed, putting greater demand on the Grid. These same people also forget that Wind generation was forecast low and although only on 9 or so nights it was close, it picked up enough to get us through. It could have been very different - maybe this year I'll get to run the genny.

Seems every retailer is selling portable Air Conditioners at the moment- we might see Blackouts during Summer yet. At least I can run ours off battery / generator if needed.

This post was modified 10 months ago by Diverted.Energy

   
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Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
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So much for energy prices continuing to retreat. Looks like tariffs are going back up in January. The world of 15p/kWh is a distant memory.

Buy Bodge Buster – Homeowner Air Source Heat Pump Installation Guide: https://amzn.to/3NVndlU

Follow our sustainability journey at My Home Farm: https://myhomefarm.co.uk


   
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(@drew-pa)
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I personally believe it’s become the new norm.   


   
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(@tim441)
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continues to be worth considering Octopus Agile or Tracker. Follow wholesale rates and so far this year have continually been a significant saving. Recent rates typically around 18p - 20p for Elec, sometimes lower.

 

Obviously a risk of spikes higher. But can always change at fairly short notice if you get worried

Listed Grade 2 building with large modern extension.
LG Therma V 16kw ASHP
Underfloor heating + Rads
8kw pv solar
3 x 8.2kw GivEnergy batteries
1 x GivEnergy Gen1 hybrid 5.0kw inverter
Manual changeover EPS


   
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(@george)
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I've changed to the 5% discounted Eon Next variable tariff as it will be cheaper than the 30.4p I fixed at till July 2024.

 

The Octopus Cosy tariff looks quite good for heat pump owners who can run a log burner during the peak time. You could heat your water during the discounted times or turn the heating up.

Cosy

 

Mitsubishi Ecodan 14kw ASHP + 500l Cylinder


   
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Toodles
(@toodles)
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@george In my instance not a log fire but a couple of Powerwalls! I am in-emails with OE about swapping to Cosy from Agile. I saw one on-line response (I have had numerous attempts on-line but the system seems to crash on me with ‘Uh-Oh,something has gone wrong, but it is not your fault’ type messages) that informed me that I cannot move directly from Agile to Cosy but have to go onto a standard fixed tariff for a period. This I don’t think would be wise as the cost would be even higher than the average Agile rate compared with the Cosy fixed rate during the cheapest 6 hours per day. Having said that, the last couple of days, the Agile price has dropped but has stubbornly been about 19 - 20 pence pkW/h for some time - trigger finger? Decisions - Becisions! Regards, Toodles.

Toodles, 76 years young and hoping to see 100 and make some ROI on my renewable energy investment!


   
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(@iancalderbank)
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Posted by: @george

 The Octopus Cosy tariff looks quite good for heat pump owners who can run a log burner during the peak time.

I hope that's not what they're recommending!  Particulates etc...

 

My octopus signup link https://share.octopus.energy/ebony-deer-230
210m2 house, Samsung 16kw Gen6 ASHP Self installed: Single circulation loop , PWM modulating pump.
My public ASHP stats: https://heatpumpmonitor.org/system/view?id=45
11.9kWp of PV
41kWh of Battery storage (3x Powerwall 2)
2x BEVs


   
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