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Electricity price predictions

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Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
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Looks like the tariff’s been confirmed under the government’s cap for electricity and gas:

Electricity
Unit rate: 34.00p per kWh
Standing charge: 46.36p per day.

Gas 
Unit rate: 10.30p per kWh.
Standing charge: 28.49p per day

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(@batalto)
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@editor my gas meter is being removed next month. I'm not paying that standing for gas I dont even use!

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Current weather compensation: 47@-2 and 31@17
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 robl
(@robl)
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All being well, we'll have our gas meter taken out after this winter.  Mrs RobL wants 2 heating seasons without gas before it's out to be sure to be sure.


   
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(@diverted-energy)
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@robl LPG Boiler conversion at the end of this month here.

Air Conditioners in place, generator on stand-by 40kw batteries on a ship.

I don't trust this government to guarantee Gas, ultimately Electricity supply for at least the next two Winters.

Reliability on Gas generation is frighteningly high at a time France and Norway have told us not to expect Electricity and at a time Germany's storage is on a knife-edge as we've done nothing to support them set aside Winter supply.

Seem many disagree with me, even to the point I'm accused of loosing my marbles.

We'll know in 4 months whether or not my gut feelings are correct. I've tried 15 times to contact government in respect of boilers over consuming gas and other than a reply last week, which seemed to be progress.

KamiKwasi, who allowed Gas storage in this country to be shut down 5 years ago amid warnings of events happening today, is now, our Chancellor.

Lord help us!!

If you're reliance is 100% Electricity, start planning now!!


   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
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Posts: 462
 

Wholesale gas is still very high, but for now at least we have come down from the recent price spike that was driving some of the higher eye watering projections for January and April in the press. I suspect we will see more spikes and a high floor price. 

Screenshot 20220913 113140 com.android.chrome

 

 


   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
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Interesting the Energy Price Guarantee rates for those currently on the ofgem price cap tariff will vary by region if this is correct . Martin Lewis has published regional rates for the Energy Price Guarantee 

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/what-are-the-price-cap-unit-rates-/#unitrates


   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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Yes @jeff there are regional variations. That's because Ofgem was forced to re-think its review of DUoS (Distribution Use of Service) charges and publish the SCR (Significant Code Review) without them being included.

I wrote a resumé of this situation here on 25th August.

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
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Posted by: @transparent

Yes @jeff there are regional variations. That's because Ofgem was forced to re-think its review of DUoS (Distribution Use of Service) charges and publish the SCR (Significant Code Review) without them being included.

I wrote a resumé of this situation here on 25th August.

Thanks yes i knew the ofgem price cap varied by region as you explained on 25th.

I did wonder if the separate new government Energy Price Guarantee was going to be  national rates. The government factsheet quoted average rates, which sort of inferred there might be regional variations in the EPG, but didn't actually provide the regional rates. 

"The average unit price for dual fuel customers paying by direct debit will be limited to 34.0p/kWh for electricity and 10.3p/kWh for gas, inclusive of VAT, from 1 October."

 


   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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In the time that Ofgem have had available since the PM's statement, I don't think they can apply the Energy Financial Support allowances in any other way than a discount against the existing regional costs.

Ofgem's spreadsheets use different inputs for each DNO Region at the commencement of their calculations. They don't start with a single figure for the cost per kWh of electricity, and then apply a regional multiplier.

Here's section 3e of the spreadsheet which is described as showing "the electricity Network Cost Allowance values for each 28AD Charge Restriction Period, Benchmark Metering Arrangement, Benchmark Annual Consumption Level and Charge Restriction Region, calculated according to Annex 3 to the Electricity licence conditions."

ElecCosts 3e

It's clear that these regional variations are embedded within existing licence conditions. As such there is no such concept of a 'National rate'.

The 'average figures' which are being quoted by the media from Government press-releases are actually a complex calculation which

  • averages the regional variations according to population size
  • averages the consumption figures according to the relative proportions of each type of house
  • averages across the three different payment mechanisms

The formulae used are based on historical licence agreements. It's a shambles.

I'd like to see Sec State for BEIS have this mechanism overhauled. We could then start from a single price per unit regardless of geographical location and type of housing.

That would make it much easier for Government to change energy policy. They would no longer be starting from licence contracts which have legal status.

It's only when you try to read these Ofgem spreadsheets that you begin to realise why it's so difficult for domestic Energy Suppliers to correctly calculate bills. That complexity increases the cost of their administrative operations... which we then have to pay for.

No wonder Ofgem keeps putting off their Directive to compel Suppliers to issue ToU tariffs!

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
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Posts: 462
 

It's a good point.

I think i would have done it differently, but i am not saying my way is better to be honest. 

Have the same rates nationally under the new EPG scheme while it is operating, then have the government pick up the delta with the regional ofgem price cap in the background. 

Basically keep it very simple for customers and hide all the complexity in the bit of the  payments between the government and suppliers under the EPG. 

I can see why they have setup the EPG as a discount off regional variable and fixed tariff. There is logic to it. It does feel a bit complicated for consumers though. 

Anyway, it is what it is now. 

It is times like this i often think we would be better if the whole electricity chain was nationalised under a single setup. There is an awful lot of complexity that a large number of companies are exploiting for financial gain. Never going to happen though 😊

I agree there is certainly more work needed going forward. 

This post was modified 2 years ago by Jeff

   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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Posted by: @jeff

Never going to happen though

When, this coming winter, children arrive at school cold and hungry, young single mothers queue up at food banks, and pensioners die from hypothermia, do you still think it's 'never going to happen'?

Kwarsi Kwarteng MP and Rees Mogg MP are already embarking on a 're-tendering' operation to supply energy in the UK. It will take time, but I don't think piles of historical contracts are going to be regarded as an insurmountable obstacle.

There will also be massive cross-party support from the House of Commons Committee on BEIS, chaired by Darren Jones MP. I imagine Ofgem are dreading their next call-up before that committee.

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
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Posts: 462
 

Interesting, i thought typical headline figures in the press and the government website are usually based on:

Dual fuel

Direct debit

12000 kWh gas (TDCV for an "average household" ) 

2900 kWh electricity (TDCV for an "average household" ) 

Averaged unit rates and standing charges across country. 

This is where the £3,549 figure came from i thought. 

The regular refresh of the TDCV was paused during COVID due to volatility in usage with so many people working at home. 

For example. 

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/ofgem-updates-price-cap-level-and-tightens-rules-suppliers

I can't honestly say i have ever seen any averages in the press combining payment type. Normally a footnote etc for different payment types (pre payment meter or pay in full on receipt of bill) 

Perhaps i have just misunderstood your post. 

 

This post was modified 2 years ago by Jeff

   
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