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Electricity price predictions

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(@kev-m)
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Screenshot 2021 12 28 11.38.56

Latest hot deal on offer from BG. 


   
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(@derek-m)
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Posted by: @kev-m
Screenshot 2021 12 28 11.38.56

Latest hot deal on offer from BG. 

Wow, they are really trying to corner the market with that tariff. 😮 


   
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(@prjohn)
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Just to make us feel good when Ofgem comes up with the new standard of 30p. 


   
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Mars
 Mars
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An interesting story in The Evening Standard.

https://apple.news/ARZhzO41bSbiJLlOrsU8xVQ

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(@prjohn)
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@editor This report seems to be similar to the Guardian report but with less detail. What concerns me is the idea that consumer support appears to be coming from the private sector in the form of loans to the industry. These loans are to be used to keep prices low for the near future. These loans need to be repaid not by the energy companies but the consumer, which means increased energy bills for a very long time to cover the cost of these loans. When you also link this reporting to the recent Ofgem report "Building energy market resilience"  then it is becoming clearer that it is the energy companies that are being protected and not the consumer. 

We are facing unprecedented increases in energy but when reading the above-mentioned reporting and the Ofgem report it is worthwhile to look at energy prices. Put simply, it costs about the same to generate electricity from a wind turbine as it did a year ago and it costs about the same to generate nuclear electricity as it did a year ago. The big price changes are in gas which is predominantly used in the south of Wales and England for electricity production. The question Ofgem should be asking is; Is the electricity grid fit for purpose for the majority of the country?

 


   
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Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
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Some MP chatter to remove VAT and policy charges on electricity: https://apple.news/AIBirr1WkQzKmYpXwYPfKRg

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(@prjohn)
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It argues that by scrapping the 5% VAT rate on energy bills and suspending environmental levies which fund renewable energy schemes, the average household could save £200 on their energy bill.

£200, small change when electricity bills are going up by over a thousand. A more serious discussion needs to be made.


   
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Mars
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(@editor)
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@prjohn, I fully agree. It is really is nominal in the greater scheme of things. I think 2022 is going to be a very interesting year, especially if energy prices don't come down.

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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
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For my postcode, Scottish Power are currently offering a fixed rate about 50% above the current price cap which is a glimmer of hope compared to some of the worst case news stories over the last few weeks.

They generate 100% of their electricity via their own wind turbines which may be helping

 


   
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(@mattengineer)
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On a positive note wind generation has been good over the last week c50% of generation meaning gas has been c12.5%. 

The mild December has also had a positive impact and hopefully will reduce pressure on markets. 

Is a wind turbine / solar / battery storage the answer? 


   
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(@derek-m)
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Posted by: @mattengineer

On a positive note wind generation has been good over the last week c50% of generation meaning gas has been c12.5%. 

The mild December has also had a positive impact and hopefully will reduce pressure on markets. 

Is a wind turbine / solar / battery storage the answer? 

I think that you will find that demand is reduced because of the holiday period, which of course helps improve the renewable contribution in percentage terms. It is certainly better than the 4% contribution it was making the previous week.

Wind and solar cannot provide all our energy needs without some form of mass energy storage either by batteries or Hydrogen production to be used for electricity generation. Even then it would require a vast number of wind and solar farms to ensure that energy demand can always be met.

More emphasis should be placed on energy reduction, insulation, improved efficiency etc, as well as more use of tidal and sea currents as a source of more predictable energy production.


   
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(@kev-m)
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Posted by: @derek-m
Posted by: @mattengineer

On a positive note wind generation has been good over the last week c50% of generation meaning gas has been c12.5%. 

The mild December has also had a positive impact and hopefully will reduce pressure on markets. 

Is a wind turbine / solar / battery storage the answer? 

I think that you will find that demand is reduced because of the holiday period, which of course helps improve the renewable contribution in percentage terms. It is certainly better than the 4% contribution it was making the previous week.

Wind and solar cannot provide all our energy needs without some form of mass energy storage either by batteries or Hydrogen production to be used for electricity generation. Even then it would require a vast number of wind and solar farms to ensure that energy demand can always be met.

More emphasis should be placed on energy reduction, insulation, improved efficiency etc, as well as more use of tidal and sea currents as a source of more predictable energy production.

We just can't rely on something as unpredictable as the weather.  It can be calm, dull and cold for days if not weeks at a time in the UK and Northern Europe.  Zero % of a big number is still zero.   Batteries are very, very expensive for that sort of storage and H2 is years away.  Tidal and wave power are unproven at scale.  Fossil fuels are the only short to medium term solution to fill the gap but I fear we've thrown the baby out with the bathwater. We've closed coal power stations and coal production, stalled fracking and got rid of gas storage.  We've also failed to replace end of life nuclear generation.  We could maybe have got away with doing one or two of these things but we've done all of them. 

It's a good job Russia is so stable and relations with France so good otherwise we'd really be in trouble. 😉    

 


   
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