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Electricity price predictions

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(@derek-m)
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@heat-pump-newbie

Yes I did listen, and found it quite interesting.

Energy conservation has been one of my things for many years. At the moment I am working on the design of a system to store thermal energy during daytime, using water as a storage medium, so that the stored energy can be used for heating overnight.


   
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Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
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What’s the general consensus about the October tariff revision? Do you think we’re going to see a massive jump again or is there any hope for it remaining relatively unchanged. 

Buy Bodge Buster – Homeowner Air Source Heat Pump Installation Guide: https://amzn.to/3NVndlU
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(@prjohn)
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@editor I think the consensus is there will be a price increase in Autumn. The numbers I have seen being discussed are between 25% and 30% which is approximately the same monetary value we faced in April. Gas prices remain volatile although they have dropped recently and will potentially increase depending on how the Russian gas supply is affected by the current conflict. Over the past year, the UK has done nothing to secure the UK energy industry. There is no mass infrastructure being built urgently to deal with the immediate effect of this crisis and there are no plans to change the grid and how it operates to make it more efficient. There is also the question of who is paying for the new Nuclear stations being built "every year" we all know there is a guaranteed strike price for Hinkley point, I would imagine this will be extended to the new stations.


   
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Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
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@prjohn, wow, that would take tariffs well over 40p/kWh and quite honestly I don't see how hundreds of thousands of households are going to make ends meet. It's the rapid speed of increase that's so disconcerting and it certainly isn't going to drop at the same rate as it's going up if the markets ever stabilise. 

Not renewable, but Brent Crude has again passed US$110 a barrel and OPEC+ are holding tight on current production levels, despite demands to increase output – our kerosene oil club rate this week is £0.9590. If this persists, there won't be any "cheap" options for consumers and homeowners to fall back on.

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Transparent
(@transparent)
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Posted by: @editor

that would take tariffs well over 40p/kWh and quite honestly I don't see how hundreds of thousands of households are going to make ends meet.

Solutions are available @editor - ones which could be targeted at the most needy far better than the '£250 to everyone' which the government has just implemented.

See what I'm writing about ToU and Block Tariffs on the topic about Octopus' offerings:

This post was modified 2 years ago by Transparent

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
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Not in the least bit surprised - our direct debit has gone up 300%

https://apple.news/AXEE_GbK1QXmSKu0EqhjyEw

Buy Bodge Buster – Homeowner Air Source Heat Pump Installation Guide: https://amzn.to/3NVndlU
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(@derek-m)
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Hi @editor

Shell Energy started doing this a couple of years ago, which is why we parted company. It was not a 'we would like to increase your direct debit', but a 'we will be increasing your direct debit', the sole purpose of which was to keep our money in their bank account, as we were always in credit on our account, and would have remained so at the present payment rate, though the excess would have reduced over the Winter period without the increase.

On both occasions I had to spend time and effort contacting them to insist that the direct debit remain at the original value.


   
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(@hughf)
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Posted by: @editor

What’s the general consensus about the October tariff revision? Do you think we’re going to see a massive jump again or is there any hope for it remaining relatively unchanged. 

My guess - gas will rise to 10p/kWh, electric will go up to 32p/kWh - but those are just figures I've pulled out of thin air.

A SCOP of 3.2 will leave us equal on heating costs - even easier to convince my Wife to get the gas turned off and let me install this air source.

Off grid on the isle of purbeck
2.4kW solar, 15kWh Seplos Mason, Outback power systems 3kW inverter/charger, solid fuel heating with air/air for shoulder months, 10 acres of heathland/woods.

My wife’s house: 1946 3 bed end of terrace in Somerset, ASHP with rads + UFH, triple glazed, retrofit IWI in troublesome rooms, small rear extension.


   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
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Cornwall Insight have been reliable with their estimates. 

Their current prediction is £2,607, up from the current £1,971 based on the average user (2900 units of electricity and 12,000 of gas), a 33% increase overall. I expect this is skewed to a higher increase in the gas unit charge again as was the case last time. 

That is probably as good an estimate at the moment.

Over half the time period to calculate the price increase has now passed, so the estimates will gradually get more accurate.

Obviously a lot can change over the next 3 months before the price cap is announced in August, ready for October. The government/ ofgem may tweak things and wholesale prices are still volatile, but gas is much lower than the peak during the early bit of the Ukraine invasion....

This post was modified 2 years ago by Jeff

   
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(@hughf)
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Posted by: @jeff

Cornwall Insight have been reliable with their estimates. 

Their current prediction is £2,607, up from the current £1,971 based on the average user (2900 units of electricity and 12,000 of gas), a 33% increase overall. I expect this is skewed to a higher increase in the gas unit charge again as was the case last time. 

That is probably as good an estimate at the moment.

Over half the time period to calculate the price increase has now passed, so the estimates will gradually get more accurate.

Obviously a lot can change over the next 3 months before the price cap is announced in August, ready for October. The government/ ofgem may tweak things and wholesale prices are still volatile....

That average use seems low - or we use a lot?

The last 13 months of data from our smart meter, tumble drying, car charging, dehumidifying an outbuilding, cooking, heating on from 7am till 10pm at 19-20 deg (from about September till May)

IMG 0540
IMG 0541

All I know is that an £850 gas bill for the year will now be a £1700 gas bill, joy...

 

Off grid on the isle of purbeck
2.4kW solar, 15kWh Seplos Mason, Outback power systems 3kW inverter/charger, solid fuel heating with air/air for shoulder months, 10 acres of heathland/woods.

My wife’s house: 1946 3 bed end of terrace in Somerset, ASHP with rads + UFH, triple glazed, retrofit IWI in troublesome rooms, small rear extension.


   
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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
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@hughf These are the ofgem typical consumption values that all suppliers have to use. 

Number of Bedrooms Yearly Gas Usage (in kWh) Yearly Electricity Usage (in kWh)
1 - 2 8,000 1,800
3 - 4 12,000 2,900
4+ 17,000 4,300

   
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(@hughf)
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Posts: 485
 
Posted by: @jeff

@hughf These are the ofgem typical consumption values that all suppliers have to use. 

Number of Bedrooms Yearly Gas Usage (in kWh) Yearly Electricity Usage (in kWh)
1 - 2 8,000 1,800
3 - 4 12,000 2,900
4+ 17,000 4,300

Interesting, didn't even know those were a thing. All I know is, we use what we use...

Off grid on the isle of purbeck
2.4kW solar, 15kWh Seplos Mason, Outback power systems 3kW inverter/charger, solid fuel heating with air/air for shoulder months, 10 acres of heathland/woods.

My wife’s house: 1946 3 bed end of terrace in Somerset, ASHP with rads + UFH, triple glazed, retrofit IWI in troublesome rooms, small rear extension.


   
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