Posted by: @sunandair

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I read recently that Sweden as a nation have 60% adoption of heat pumps whereas we are a lowly 1%. 

That figure could be even higher because many urban areas in Sweden rely on ground source district heating. When we recently interviewed Carlos from the Swedish Energy Agency, he mentioned that boilers are taxed so heavily there that they’re unaffordable, making heat pumps the much cheaper alternative and driving their adoption. Imagine the backlash from UK boiler manufacturers if that were implemented here.

Interestingly, Sweden is now facing its own electricity challenges, partly due to reliance on biomass and waste incineration. I’ve never fully seen biomass as renewable since trees don’t grow as fast as they’re ‘harvested’. But waste incineration, especially with effective carbon capture, has real potential in my eyes - it’s a great way to keep rubbish and plastics out of rivers and oceans.

This is the interview Carlos featured in:

“A lot going on” but at no time did I claim it was constructive, enough for net-zero, or making real progress! But rather they are producing papers and discussion documents. Meanwhile where are the decisions being made?

@editor 

Carlos from the Swedish Energy Agency, he mentioned that boilers are taxed so heavily there that they’re unaffordable, making heat pumps the much cheaper alternative and driving their adoption. Imagine the backlash from UK boiler manufacturers if that were implemented here.

It's a no-brainer but Britain, rather like America, has fairly corrupted politics - ie via funding, lobbying and revolving doors.

I assumed that Carlos is actually Spanish although he lives/works in Sweden.   Spain moved from 0 - 60 with decarbonisation very quickly once they decided because they legislated very rapidly. They imposed solar on tower blocks via building regulations - no one blinked it just happened. Planning in Spain is quite tightly regulated both locally and nationally. 

Posted by: @lucia

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It's a no-brainer but Britain, rather like America, has fairly corrupted politics - ie via funding, lobbying and revolving doors.

 

Is it corruption, or is it a civil service and politicians who simply aren't sufficiently technical and thus rely on industry to tell them what to do.  When I read consultations that are issued ,it feels to me like this is definitely a significant factor.

Perhaps its  combination of the two, but for sure we need civil servants, and politicians, that have science/engineering as a background if we are to make sensible decisions about these things.  Unless our civil servants and politicians can challenge the 'experts' from the industry on technical matters, the industry will inevitably pull the wool over their eyes.

@jamespa

Is it corruption, or is it a civil service and politicians who simply aren't sufficiently technical and thus rely on industry to tell them what to do.  When I read consultations that are issued ,it feels to me like this is definitely a significant factor.

Perhaps its  combination of the two, but for sure we need civil servants, and politicians, that have science/engineering as a background if we are to make sensible decisions about these things.  Unless our civil servants and politicians can challenge the 'experts' from the industry on technical matters, the industry will inevitably pull the wool over their eyes.

Yes, I think it's both too, really.

When the rolling back the state/privatisation thing became the all-party political modus operandi unfortunately experts from within the state were axed - right across the board from Whitehall to local councils. Years of expertise in everything from social care to logistics and so on was lost only to be replaced by consultants that cost many times more and often with 'flexible' loyalties. 

But there's also funding of politics and lobbying. Then businesses/hedge funds/insurance etc., offer political 'advisors' and 'support'.  

The lobbying and political strategy business is really outrageous and is literally embedded in our politics (it's not unique to any party). 

Thus the energy transition is no different and you are right, of course we need those science and engineering experts in-house.  

Posted by: @sunandair

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Posted by: @sunandair

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I read recently that Sweden as a nation have 60% adoption of heat pumps whereas we are a lowly 1%. 

 

 

That figure could be even higher because many urban areas in Sweden rely on ground source district heating. When we recently interviewed Carlos from the Swedish Energy Agency, he mentioned that boilers are taxed so heavily there that they’re unaffordable, making heat pumps the much cheaper alternative and driving their adoption. Imagine the backlash from UK boiler manufacturers if that were implemented here.

Thanks Mars.... I have been following your podcast series, which I’ve found really interesting and helpful. It’s also been handy to put a face to other members. I think you had Brendon Uys on that episode. 

I found the stark comparison between progress in Sweden and Britain helps to cut through the rhetoric. The path to decarbonisation appears to be A little bit lost. perhaps the lobby groups like the boiler manufacturers need to diversify rapidly into HP manufacturing or fade into the background?

Just adding this quote from Clem Cowton, Director of External Affairs, 🐙 :

"A stark lesson from the US for energy policy in the UK: You don’t get the chance to make grand plans about climate or anything else if people feel poorer when they go to the polls in 5 years."

Very happy to see this take, on the record. 

Posted by: @lucia

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@judith

↑There’s a lot happening in the energy world right now. Too soon to regret purchasing an ashp but enough potential threat to learn how most efficiently use it.

Oops... I was being ironic and using the ancient tried and tested clickbait technique.... 

 

It's my job to investigate this stuff right now but I try not to fill posts with too much detail because it becomes a bit too tedious for new readers to find the threads. Thus I post articles with smart-arsed titles and links to things for a bit of a discussion.  🤓

 

What is 'going on' apart from a LOT of competing interests, not all of them very healthy for a well-organised energy transition, is, from a consumer perspective, pretty class-bound and once again, linked to material privilege. That was my reference to not being able to afford heat pumps but I could offer an essay on the relationship to the means of production if you prefer? 🫢😂✊🏻

 

 

It's not only a 'comment' about prices - I've spent months digging into things, interviewing industry insiders and policy experts and sadly, the idea that gas is going to be removed from the equation is, I'm sorry to say, not on the table it seems.  I showed you the treasury details - apart from anything else they pull the $$ strings - via the OBR report which has already indicated that there will be a further charge weighting on electricity tariffs.  But there's other reasons too - not least votes!  The electorate are in favour of gas. And it plugs an infrastructure gap. 

 

I don't get much of my information from news papers but I share the links to make it more accessible - I prefer to let the FT journalists crunch the very tedious OBR numbers. Y'all know by now I hate maths. [😁] Anyway, it probably helps to understand that NESO is marking its own homework hence the big megabytes report files. [you can tell how much clout the marketing dept has by the size of the report megabytes]. Thus it is as much marketing a statement of aims as 'facts'. A department fighting its quarter if you like.

 

I've said it before, but the UK grid is one of only two in Europe that is privatised (the other is Portugal). The UK grid is in a dire state as a consequence of this. Which is why it was rearranged and partially bought back under government control.

 

We have, and have had, a long line of governments wedded to the (failed) can-kicking-down-the-road model that infrastructure can be funded via variations on the PFI theme. It was bad enough when it was good old fashioned outsourcing but when private equity and hedge funds get involved.... Houston we have a problem.  That's not to say private finance is all bad but the terms of the deal matter. Very much! 

 

I lived in another European country for years and saw close-up how they manage a lot of this stuff - a lot quicker, more efficiently and with a lot more scrutiny and regulation. Unfortunately we have governments that only like to regulate citizens not companies. 

 

@cathoderay

What about the huge amount of personal data that will get collected and potentially abused?

What about when the controls go wrong/get hacked?

I think I posted about this a few times  in passing - the lobbying for data access is huge - it's worth a fortune, particularly when cross referenced with other data. I think I noted previously that our 🐙 friend is in reality a platform IT company with a side-hustle in energy. 😁

The hacking risk is always present even for state-owned grids but ours seems keen to multiply the risk factors - note who got the smart meter contract. One big reason why other states have never opened up their grids to private enterprise is precisely for reasons of national security. But hey... the UK has no banking or cash infrastructure that isn't owned by American companies so.. 🤦🏻‍♀️

And don't get me started on subsea cables and security.... 

So yes, there's a lot going on but 1) it's not only in shiny reports or news paper articles; 2) it spans lots of realms beyond the obvious; 3) but the BIG point I was trying to make by flagging those two articles was if the 'class' factor (for want of a better way of saying it) isn't built into this stuff from the very foundations the repercussions will be horrendous. We have to think how energy transitions have an impact on the poorest and the just-about-managing - like I said, those who will never be able to afford solar or batteries or even a home they own. Not so Agile for them.... 🙁

You've just seen what's happened across the pond. 

@judith

Tomato Energy shows there’s further scope for challenger suppliers in the market now.

If you like your energy being sold a la Petticoat Lane stylee... I guess you haven't seen their company history?  🙈 😁

 

Hi @lucia 

Theres a lot going on here in this post Lucia... can you help me understand your thoughts a bit better. Where has your research taken you? perhaps précis it down and summarise where you think the real progress is being made?

Incidentally the 🐙 reference was a nice bit of irony too.

Posted by: @lucia

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Just adding this quote from Clem Cowton, Director of External Affairs, 🐙 :

"A stark lesson from the US for energy policy in the UK: You don’t get the chance to make grand plans about climate or anything else if people feel poorer when they go to the polls in 5 years."

Very happy to see this take, on the record. 

I’m not going to divert this post into the (not allowed) political area, but the Octopus guy is being frank. There is a conflict in any market-based system between the providers of capital and the users of the service. This trick is to regulate it well so that capital providers get an adequate return and the  electricity customers are not exploited. The UK has not done regulation well.

You only have to look at the Thames water scenario to see that profits made from consumers go to paying back loans to the parent company not to investing in the infrastructure. The regulator was asleep. There are fortunes to me made (at the consumer’s expense) in the energy world too, eg https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ngjx9nn92o#:~:text=Royal%20Mail%20buyer%20Daniel%20Kretinsky%20vows%20to%20deliver%20letters%20forever%20%2D%20BBC%20News  

As @jamespa says the trick is good expert regulators who can understand the technical engineering arguments which are used to keep industry in control and not be befuddled by financial engineering either. Our system which generates price ratios of 4 between electricity and gas works against the absolutely essential need to stop producing CO2.

@editor burning waste plastic requires carbon capture and store otherwise it is just as bad at producing CO2 as any other fossil fuel https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp3wxgje5pwo  

Posted by: @sunandair

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Hi @lucia 

Theres a lot going on here in this post Lucia... can you help me understand your thoughts a bit better. Where has your research taken you? perhaps précis it down and summarise where you think the real progress is being made?

Incidentally the reference was a nice bit of irony too.

I would also like to hear a summary of your interesting research

I would also like to understand what your conclusion is (if you have reached one), or what the research points to, in terms of what solutions we should be adopting, if the current direction is somehow wrong. Its easy for everyone (very definitely including me) to be critical of those 'in power'.  Its very much less easy, but much more constructive, to propose and justify practical (and politically realistic) alternatives to the real challenges we face.

Incidentally I do agree that there is currently a class factor.  That does, IMHO, need serious grappling with and almost certainly wealth transfer (AKA tax by one means or another).  The question is how and when.

Posted by: @jamespa

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...

I would also like to understand what your conclusion is (if you have reached one), or what the research points to, in terms of what solutions we should be adopting, if the current direction is somehow wrong. Its easy for everyone (very definitely including me to be critical of those 'in power'.  Its very much less easy, but much more constructive, to propose and justify practical (and politically realistic) alternatives to the real challenges we face.

...

Couldn't agree more. If I had all the answers, I'd be standing for election. I haven't, so I don't.

Posted by: @jamespa

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Its easy for everyone [...] to be critical of those 'in power'.  Its very much less easy, but much more constructive, to propose and justify practical (and politically realistic) alternatives to the real challenges we face.

I have put forward alternatives in my responses to the Consultation on Delivering a Smart and Secure Electricity System, and in technical papers sent subsequently to DESNZ.

Our existing Smart Meters already have the required functionality to deliver what DESNZ is contemplating by way of Demand Side Response.

• The communication paths have a proven track record of being secure.
• Each Electricity Meter (ESME) has 5-channels of Auxiliary Load Control Switching, which can be accessed by appliances in the home through four routes.
• The Randomised Offset to the Tariff Switch Table addresses the need to avoid surge demand at the half-hours
• The Smart Meter features can be made equally available to those on pre-payment meters

The argument put forward by those wanting to have independent control over Smart EV Chargers was that they required monitoring which operated more often than 30-mins.

But that could've been implemented by having monitoring implemented over the internet, whilst control commands were restricted to the Smart Meter Network.

The argument was technically spurious and resulted in legislation for EV Chargers which conflicts with the Smart Meter specification, approved by Parliament in 2014.
But it's the existing implementation of 'smart' EV chargers which is informing DESNZ's staff on its extension to further appliances in the home.