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Electricity price predictions

MattEngineer · 2021-12-03T18:39:26Z

When the energy cap comes up for renewal I think it will rise to 26.5p per unit, any thoughts of the collective?

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Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring & Providers

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Scalextrix

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24/11/2025 12:36 pm

@toodles it's like the saying goes:

In theory, theory and practice are the same;

In practice, they are different.

Im certain sodium-ion, solid state, quantum, organic, doo-dad-what-cher-ma-call-its will save us all. Probably.

The V2G thing is real and gives a huge battery for next to no added cost, its only a problem of interoperability standards (don't laugh).

😂

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robl

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24/11/2025 12:49 pm

I think home batteries are now very inexpensive, £1000 will get you 16kWh from Aliexpress - I expect +shipping, £1400 all in price from fogstar in the uk. Similarly, PV panels are now very inexpensive at around £80 for a 500W panel. Of course, these prices do NOT include installation. Installation labour costs generally dominate, and these costs are not going down any time soon in the UK.

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Majordennisbloodnok

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24/11/2025 1:06 pm

I'm not sure I'd call £1,400 "inexpensive", @robl, but I get your point nonetheless. I'd be happy to settle for "a lot cheaper than they were"....

105 m2 bungalow in South East England
Mitsubishi Ecodan 8.5 kW air source heat pump
18 x 360W solar panels
1 x 6 kW GroWatt battery and SPH5000 inverter
1 x Myenergi Zappi
1 x VW ID3
Raised beds for home-grown veg and chickens for eggs

"Semper in excretia; sumus solum profundum variat"

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Batpred

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24/11/2025 1:10 pm

Posted by: @technogeek

↑

Posted by: @jeff

↑

Let's hope the costs don't escalate.

😀 😀 that is almost guaranteed in the UK. This is one of the reasons why the UK is getting a reputation of being uninvestable.

Well, these types of guaranteed investments with cfd are fine for investors that can get them. 🙂

One way to rationalise it is that there is a premium being paid to investors to offset the extreme uncertainty of the planning application regime?m

16 kWh Seplos Fogstar battery; 8kW Solis S6-EH1P8K-L-PLUS hybrid inverter; 1 x Ohme Home Pro EV charger; HA lab on mini PC

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Batpred

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24/11/2025 1:21 pm

Posted by: @robl

↑

I think home batteries are now very inexpensive, £1000 will get you 16kWh from Aliexpress - I expect +shipping...

Of course, these prices do NOT include installation. Installation labour costs generally dominate, and these costs are not going down any time soon in the UK.

I agree and I posted about the fact battery prices are now much lower (and issues with Fogstar).

But with all due respect, saying it would be due to labour costs is merging the huge cost of a mythical MCS monopoly (in name, perhaps..) with electrician/labour.

16 kWh Seplos Fogstar battery; 8kW Solis S6-EH1P8K-L-PLUS hybrid inverter; 1 x Ohme Home Pro EV charger; HA lab on mini PC

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Scalextrix

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24/11/2025 1:33 pm

@batpred I think the real issue being solved with CfDs is to give investors certainty, but it's more to do with competitive ROI than planning.

You can plop your funds into AI and make unlimited gains (just get out before the bubble bursts), or renewables and make a pittance, so where are you gonna go?

Bear in mind cheaper renewables substitute for gas generation, which reduces demand for imported gas, which not only makes electricity cheaper but domestic gas too, because without renewables we would be importing significantly more LNG. So as a renewables investor you are subsidising other people, for an otherwise poor ROI.

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Jeff

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24/11/2025 3:23 pm

Posted by: @scalextrix

↑

@batpred I think the real issue being solved with CfDs is to give investors certainty, but it's more to do with competitive ROI than planning.

You can plop your funds into AI and make unlimited gains (just get out before the bubble bursts), or renewables and make a pittance, so where are you gonna go?

Bear in mind cheaper renewables substitute for gas generation, which reduces demand for imported gas, which not only makes electricity cheaper but domestic gas too, because without renewables we would be importing significantly more LNG. So as a renewables investor you are subsidising other people, for an otherwise poor ROI.

Interesting logic.

We could also drill for more gas in the North Sea during the transition to net zero.

This wouldn't necessarily reduce costs unless it was cheaper than LNG but it would dramatically reduce our contribution to CO2, would generate jobs in the UK, would generate taxes that could be ring fenced for net zero, further reducing the UK renewable energy transition costs.

https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/north-sea-gas-is-almost-four-times-cleaner-than-lng-imports/#:~:text=The%20report%20shows%20that%20around,more%20carbon%20intensive%20gas%20imports.

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